Global Market Implied Equity Risk Premiums With equity risk premiums compressed in the U.S. and Japan, stocks offer limited upside over bonds, turning equities into a tougher bet and increasing the risk of frustration. Image:…
Discretionary Positioning and Ex-MCG & Tech Earnings Growth Discretionary positioning continues to lag earnings growth beyond MCG and Tech, leaving upside on the table if revisions hold and macro risks stay in check. Image: Deutsche…
MSCI AC World EPS Analysts are steadily lifting MSCI AC World EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027, convinced the AI and tech boom will boost profits and margins rather than another hype-fueled spending wave. Image:…
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The market is pricing a 13% chance of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months, just below…
Typical Path of S&P 500 Bottom-Up Consensus EPS Estimate Analysts usually trim EPS estimates in the first four months of the year. Not this time. In 2026, revisions are heading higher, fueled by AI optimism…
Equity Sector Flows Money continues to pour into industrials, energy and materials, underscoring the ongoing tilt toward cyclical plays. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Derivatives Strategy
S&P 500 Index Returns Past 10 Years (May – October) May-October is often seen as the weaker stretch for the S&P 500, but the track record tells a different story. Over the past decade, the…
Different Market Sentiment Indicators Market sentiment has climbed back to pre-war levels, with risk appetite improving, volatility easing, and flows shifting decisively into riskier assets. The mood is improving, but not yet euphoric. Image: Goldman…
Mega-Cap Growth & Tech Positioning Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech sits at just the 32nd percentile, still underweight and nowhere near crowded, which keeps upside potential intact. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Trend Channel The S&P 500 has rallied back to the lower bound of its trend channel in place since October 2022. If buyers defend this level, the index should begin to grind higher…
Indexed Returns of AI-Related Portfolios vs. Equal-Weight S&P 500 The AI rally is still being driven by infrastructure winners, with chip giants, data center builders and cloud platforms cashing in while software and productivity names…