Health Care Sector Weight in the S&P 500 With a 9% weight in the S&P 500 and an earnings share of 10%, the health care sector represents an important, though not dominant, part of the…

Real U.S. Consumer Spending During the first half of 2025, U.S. inflation-adjusted consumer spending contracted—the weakest pace seen in over 15 years—driven by cautious consumer behavior amid tariff concerns and economic uncertainties. Image: Deutsche Bank

MOVE, VIX and FX Volatility The “Goldilocks summer” of market calm is essentially over, as mounting concerns about the U.S. economy awaken markets from their seasonal slumber. Image: Bloomberg

90/90 Days and What the S&P 500 Did Next The “90/90 days” back to 1980 often coincide with major policy events or changes, serving as drivers or inflection points for markets. Powell’s recent dovish pivot…

CAPE Valuations and Deviation from Exponential Growth Trend The current elevated Shiller CAPE ratio suggests that U.S. stock valuations are stretched relative to historical averages, a condition that has often preceded lower long-term investor returns.…

U.S. Dollar Around Fed Cuts Typically, the U.S. dollar experiences weakness before the Fed’s initial rate cut, followed by possible strengthening or stabilization as the easing cycle progresses. Image: TS Lombard

Hedge Fund Gross and Net Leverage With gross leverage remaining high and net leverage near its historical norm, hedge funds are able to sustain increased trading activity without markedly increasing their net market exposure. Image:…

S&P 500 Return Around First Fed Cut After Being on Hold for 6+ Months Historically, when the Fed resumes rate cuts after at least six months of holding rates steady, U.S. stocks have often posted…

10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields with Various Moving Averages When the Fed prioritizes the labor market over inflation, it can reduce the immediate risk of recession by sustaining employment. However, this is likely to increase inflation…

China’s Stock Performance – CSI 300 Index vs. M1 Money Sypply YoY Growth The growth rate of the M1 money supply, a key driver of liquidity and investment capacity, tends to correlate with China’s stock…

U.S. Real Yields and Gold Gold’s typical inverse link to real rates is fundamental, but inflation expectations, central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and investor sentiment driven by debt and fiscal worries can disrupt this relationship…