Margin Debt and MoM Change The recent three-month, $90 billion decline in margin debt is not characteristic of what is typically observed at market tops, where margin debt tends to rise or peak amid speculative…

S&P 500 After 5% Gain In May Historically, when May delivers a gain of over 5%, June tends to see continued strength, and the following 12 months have always produced positive returns, averaging close to…

Median Annual S&P 500 Total Return Based on Nominal 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield There is no consistently clear or stable relationship between bond yields and equity returns. Their correlation is dynamic and shaped by various…

Performance – S&P 500 vs. 30-Year US Treasury vs. Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar The simultaneous decline of U.S. equities, bonds, and the dollar is rare—especially during periods of market stress— and signals a potential shift in…

Average S&P 500 Return in Session Following a Down Day In 2025, investors who bought the dip in the U.S. stock market experienced the highest next-day returns in over 30 years, with the S&P 500…

Money Market Fund Assets as a Percent of S&P 500 Market Capitalization Despite record levels of cash in money market funds, cash on the sidelines is not elevated relative to the S&P 500 market capitalization.…

After-Tax Nonfinancial Corporate Profits as Share of Gross Value Added While U.S. corporate profits fell in Q1 2025 due to higher costs and economic uncertainty, they remain historically high, reflecting both the strength and the…

S&P 500 Performance One Year After 5% Monthly Gains There’s very good news for bulls: Since 1950, whenever the S&P 500 has gained more than 5% in May, it has historically been higher 12 months…

Valuation – U.S. Equities vs. Rest of World – 12-Month Forward PE Ratios U.S. equities trade at historically high valuations versus global peers, with the premium widening. While strong fundamentals support this, it also poses…

U.S. Current Activity Indicator U.S. soft data and growth signals have improved slightly, largely due to a more favorable trade policy outlook following the partial rollback of tariffs. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Performance After at Least 15 Weeks of AAII Bears over Bulls Ends A streak of 15 consecutive weeks with more bears than bulls in the AAII survey is rare—only four other periods have…