Reserves in Different Currencies While the USD share of global FX reserves has slipped somewhat, it remains close to 60% and continues to be the leading global reserve currency by a wide margin. Image: Deutsche…

S&P 500 vs. 60/40 Portfolio Since 2020, the S&P 500 has delivered higher returns than the 60/40 portfolio but with greater volatility, while the 60/40 portfolio has provided more stability at the cost of lower…

S&P 500 vs. Liquidity Index A slowdown in liquidity growth—particularly if combined with soft economic data—poses a short-term risk to the U.S. equity market, increasing volatility and the likelihood of price declines. Image: TS Lombard

Average Relative Performance of S&P 500 Additions Stocks added to the S&P 500 index typically experience their strongest outperformance before the official announcement, as market participants anticipate and position for the change. Image: Goldman Sachs…

M2 Money Supply Growth U.S. money supply growth has robustly returned to near its long-term trend. In contrast, the euro area has experienced a slight slowdown in money supply growth recently, although growth rates remain…

Gold Seasonality Gold benefits from strong seasonal and technical momentum, supported by central bank demand, inflation concerns, and geopolitical risks, positioning it for a likely significant price breakout in the coming months. Image: Renaissance Macro…

Two-Year Rolling Change in the Fed Funds Rate Current rate cut expectations, as priced in by fed funds futures, are consistent with a recession scenario. However, market risk indicators and recent Fed communications suggest this…

S&P 500/MSCI World and U.S. Dollar Trade-Weighted Index The renewed relative strength and attractiveness of U.S. assets amid global uncertainty and monetary policy differentials have played a central role in driving the U.S. dollar’s recent…

S&P 500 Performance After 60 Days Above the 20-Day Moving Average The S&P 500, after closing above its 20-day moving average for 60 straight days, has historically maintained its upward momentum, with median 12-month gains…

S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium and Yield Gap With the S&P 500 equity risk premium at historically low levels, the current investment landscape presents significant challenges for equity investors. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Consensus Earnings Expectations Analysts are projecting S&P 500 earnings growth of 9.3% in 2025 and 14.0% in 2026. These consensus forecasts reflect a robust expected acceleration in profit growth, particularly moving from 2025 into 2026.…