S&P 500 Performance Up YTD Between 5-10% at the Midpoint of the Year Since 1950, when the S&P 500 has been up between 5% and 10% by mid-year, the full-year performance has been positive 93%…
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and Economic Surprise Index Weakening U.S. economic data and evolving fiscal conditions have led Goldman Sachs to revise down Treasury yield forecasts, anticipating a more accommodative monetary policy with earlier and…
S&P 500 Energy / S&P 500 The energy sector’s current low relative price performance combined with attractive valuations and strong underlying fundamentals makes it a compelling value investment opportunity for investors seeking exposure to this…
S&P 500 Performance While the S&P 500 is on track for a third consecutive monthly gain, supported by strong earnings expectations, some investors remain cautious about its sustainability given high valuations and geopolitical uncertainties. Image:…
Global Equity Valuations The market environment favors global ex-U.S., small-cap, and value stocks for their cheap valuations and growth potential, while U.S., large-cap, and growth stocks face valuation headwinds and higher downside risk. Image: Topdown…
S&P 500 Returns After a Golden Cross (50-Day MA Above the 200-Day MA) Since 1950, the S&P 500’s golden cross has been a reliable bullish signal, generating median returns of 13% over the following year,…
U.S. Federal Debt Held by the Public The U.S. public debt has reached unprecedented levels both in absolute terms and relative to the economy, raising significant concerns about the country’s fiscal sustainability and economic future.…
Global Gold Reserves vs. Global Dollar Reserves Amid rising geopolitical tensions and a shifting global financial landscape, central banks worldwide are increasingly favoring gold over the U.S. dollar as a reserve asset. Image: Blomberg
S&P 500 Performance After a Negative Q1 and Then a >10% Q2 The 2025 market exhibits a favorable pattern: a negative Q1 followed by a strong Q2 rebound of over 10%. Historically, Q3 has consistently…
Average Annual Inflation of 152 Countries Since 1971 The post-Bretton Woods monetary system features greater inflation variability and generally higher average inflation, making it difficult for countries to keep inflation consistently below 2% over the…
S&P 500 / WTI Spot Price, Detrended The roughly 30-year cycle in the relationship between U.S. stock market returns and oil prices highlights periods when stocks are either expensive or cheap relative to oil. Image:…