S&P 500 Valuation Despite lofty valuations, the fuel behind U.S. stock market performance this year has been earnings growth, not multiple expansion. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Returns When New Highs Are Made In September For the bulls, September’s new highs are more than just cosmetic. Since 1950, a new high in September has been followed by a fourth-quarter rally…

Buybacks – S&P 500 Companies in Blackout Period S&P 500 companies are heading into their blackout window ahead of earnings season, a period when buyback activity tends to fade—though not completely disappear—for the next few…

Survey – 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields While expectations tilt toward falling 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, plenty of voices argue for a rise, citing everything from sticky inflation to uncertain rate cuts and uneven economic growth.…

S&P 500 Compared to Its 200-Day Moving Average With the S&P 500 sitting 10% above its 200-day moving average, the market looks firmly bullish, suggesting more upside potential until a local peak around 13–15% above…

S&P 500 Quarterly Returns Seasonality tends to favor the bulls into year-end. Going back to 1950, the S&P 500 has gained more than 4% on average in the fourth quarter, posting positive returns 80% of…

Scatter Plot Returns of P/E Multiples and S&P 500 1-Year Returns The weak link between the P/E ratio and the S&P 500’s one-year performance shows why investors are better off keeping their eyes on the…

S&P 500 and Nasdaq vs. 1996-2001 Analog With policy easing expected to run into 2026, will U.S. equities continue to mirror the boom years of 1996 to 2001? Image: Alpine Macro

U.S. High Yield Credit Spreads Tight high-yield spreads signal strong market confidence, but they also raise red flags by potentially masking underlying vulnerabilities and feeding investor complacency by making risks seem less significant than they…

Asset Bubbles – Bitcoin, Equities and Bonds While caution is always warranted and some assets look frothy, extreme market bubbles are not apparent right now—though pockets of overvaluation do remain. Image: Deutsche Bank Research

S&P 500 Returns After Five Month Win Streaks History is on the bulls’ side: going back to 1950, five-month winning streaks in the S&P 500 have led to gains 93.3% of the time over the…