Asset Bubbles – Bitcoin, Equities and Bonds While caution is always warranted and some assets look frothy, extreme market bubbles are not apparent right now—though pockets of overvaluation do remain. Image: Deutsche Bank Research

S&P 500 Returns After Five Month Win Streaks History is on the bulls’ side: going back to 1950, five-month winning streaks in the S&P 500 have led to gains 93.3% of the time over the…

Dow Jones Industrial Average Around First Fed Rate Cut In the absence of recession, U.S. equities typically perform strongly in the year after the Fed’s first rate cut, with cyclical sectors benefiting most from improved…

U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator vs. Rolling 6-Month S&P 500 Return While Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator sits at -0.3, investors still have cash to put to work, leaving room for a cautiously bullish outlook…

Consecutive Trading Days Without a 2% Drop in the S&P 500 While the S&P 500’s 108-session run without a 2% drop is striking, history offers several precedents of calm periods that were just as long—or…

Full-Year Real GDP Growth Trade barriers, shifting immigration policies, and broader uncertainty are expected to keep the U.S. economy from reaching its potential this year, despite ongoing technological investments. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Fed Fund Rate Forecasts Nomura projects two further rate cuts this year, followed by three more in March, June, and September of next year, bringing the terminal rate to 2.875%. Image: Nomura

AAII Investor Sentiment Bull Minus Bear Spread The AAII bull-bear spread points to a balanced mood among U.S. retail investors who expect stock prices to decline in the near term—a condition that could set the…

S&P 500 Index Returns in September Late September is often a banana-peel moment for U.S. stocks, when markets have a tendency to slip. Image: Carson Investment Research

U.S. 10-Year Real Yield (TIPS) The recent decline in U.S. 10-year real yields points to growing investor caution, with labor market softening fueling bets on more Fed easing ahead. Image: Deutsche Bank

Fed Funds Rate and S&P 500 TTM EPS Growth Strong EPS growth, combined with Fed rate cuts, often fuels equities by reducing funding costs, boosting investment and sustaining earnings momentum—the classic drivers of bull markets.…