Oil Price Deviation from 48-Month Moving Average and U.S. Recessions While rising oil prices increase inflationary pressures and pose risks to economic growth, data suggest that current oil prices do not point toward a U.S.…
Performance – Value vs. Growth The U.S. market is experiencing outperformance in growth sectors driven by innovation and strong earnings, whereas value sectors dominate outside the U.S. due to slower earnings growth and differing economic…
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield vs. Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index The dollar’s decline amid rising Treasury yields signals concerns over U.S. fiscal health, reduced foreign demand for debt, and geopolitical risks, reflecting a shift in investor…
S&P 500 Risk-Adjusted Returns The S&P 500’s risk-adjusted return in 2025 has been disappointing so far, reflecting a challenging market environment characterized by increased volatility and lower-than-average returns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Fair Value The fair value model for the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield, based on market variables, suggests a fair value close to 3.9%. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Performance After Green in Both May and June Since 1988, when the S&P 500 gains in both May and June—a rare bullish sign—the rest of the year rose 15 of 16 times, averaging…
Risk-Adjusted Returns Across U.S. Equity Indices The S&P 500’s performance so far this year has been marked by relatively low returns and high volatility, leading to weak risk-adjusted outcomes and signaling a challenging environment for…
Monthly Flow of G4 Central Bank Asset Purchases Global central banks are continuing to reduce their asset holdings at a robust pace, primarily through balance sheet runoff and measured non-reinvestment of maturing securities. Image: Deutsche…
CTAs Allocation in Oil Given the current market climate, Commodity Trading Advisors have notably raised their exposure to oil. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Estimated U.S. Recession Probability Despite recent improvements, the risk of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months remains above the historical average, driven by ongoing tariff-related uncertainties and their economic repercussions. Image: Goldman Sachs…
Brent Crude Oil vs. S&P 500 Index A short-term spike in oil prices may cause market jitters, but only a sustained, significant increase would meaningfully affect U.S. stocks and the broader economy; currently, economic and…