U.S. Dollar vs. Gold – Share in Global Reserves As countries and central banks seek to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar for reserves and international trade, gold has emerged as the preferred alternative…
Trade Weighted Dollar vs. U.S. Inflation Surprises Since February 2025, the U.S. dollar has closely tracked inflation surprises, as both headline and core inflation came in lower than expected, reflecting Fed policy expectations and concerns…
S&P 500 Recovery In just over two months, the post-“Liberation Day” recovery in the S&P 500 is the strongest and fastest on record, surpassing any rebound seen in the last 75 years. Image: Deutsche Bank…
Stock Returns over the Past 33 Presidential Terms Starting on Inauguration Day U.S. stocks, after experiencing a historic drop at the start of the year, have made a strong recovery during Trump’s second term and…
Sahm Rule Recession Indicator – U.S. Unemployment Rate A drop in the Sahm Rule indicator below 0.5 is a positive sign, as it suggests the rule is not currently signaling a U.S. recession—a generally reassuring…
U.S. Airplane Traffic and Economic Growth A year-over-year decline in U.S. air passenger traffic is a reliable early warning of economic trouble. When uncertainty rises, people and businesses tend to defer travel, which usually bodes…
S&P 500 After Two Month Gains of 20% or More More good news for bulls: Historically, after a two-month gain of over 20%, the S&P 500 has never been lower 1, 3, 6, or 12…
Risk Parity Model Portfolio Weights In risk-parity strategies, the current equity allocation is at the 8th percentile—well below the median—reflecting a preference for safer assets despite the ongoing equity rally. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
New Bull Markets Start (20% Off Bear Lows or Near Bear Lows) and What Happened Next for the S&P 500 Bulls have reason to be optimistic, as the S&P 500’s rally of over 20% from…
S&P 500 Annual Buybacks Goldman Sachs forecasts that S&P 500 share buybacks will surpass $1 trillion in 2025 for the first time, a milestone expected to provide a significant tailwind for U.S. equities. Image: Goldman…
Earnings Sentiment Current earnings sentiment is on an upward trajectory, with multiple indicators highlighting robust corporate performance and the potential for continued market growth. Image: TS Lombard