Inflation – U.S. Core PCE Deflator The recent stalling of disinflationary progress in U.S. core PCE deflator could complicate the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decisions. Image: Deutsche Bank

U.S. Economic Forecasts Deutsche Bank expects the U.S. economy to sustain robust growth in 2026 and 2027, with core inflation steadily moving toward the Fed’s 2% target by the end of 2027 and unemployment slightly…

U.S. Tech Stocks vs. China Tech Stocks As the U.S. market experiences an AI frenzy, China’s major technology stocks struggle, reflecting investor pessimism towards China’s economic revival efforts and concerns about AI monetization and trade…

S&P 500 Return – Year 3 of Bull Market Like a kid who loses interest in his favorite toy after two years, the S&P 500 tends to slow down in the third year of a…

U.S. Recession Probability The consensus likelihood of a recession in the United States over the next year is estimated to be around 25%, which points to a moderate risk of an economic downturn. Image: Deutsche…

ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day In a bull market, asking a bear how to make more money is like asking a cat to take a bath—neither is likely to cooperate, especially with the U.S. stock…

S&P 500 Performance After Major Milestone Levels Are Hit Market optimism is so high, even bears are buying “Bull Market 2025” t-shirts, as the S&P 500 index has consistently risen in the six months following…

S&P 500 Ratio to Stoxx 600 The S&P 500’s performance relative to the Stoxx 600 has hit the upper limit of its long-term channel. While U.S. equities may continue to lead due to strong growth…

Annual Performance of S&P 500 With a year-to-date return of 26.47%, the S&P 500 index has delivered remarkable gains in 2024, ranking it among the best performances of the century. Image: Bloomberg

Interest Rates – Expectations for the Fed’s Policy Rate Path Morgan Stanley expects more Fed rate cuts in the first half of 2025 than markets currently price in, as the impact of tariffs will likely…

How Often is the Worst Month of the Year for the S&P 500 Bulls are smiling, probably because they’ve just realized that December being the worst month of the year is as rare as finding…