Performance – S&P 500 vs. 30-Year US Treasury vs. Trade-Weighted U.S. Dollar The simultaneous decline of U.S. equities, bonds, and the dollar is rare—especially during periods of market stress— and signals a potential shift in…
Average S&P 500 Return in Session Following a Down Day In 2025, investors who bought the dip in the U.S. stock market experienced the highest next-day returns in over 30 years, with the S&P 500…
Money Market Fund Assets as a Percent of S&P 500 Market Capitalization Despite record levels of cash in money market funds, cash on the sidelines is not elevated relative to the S&P 500 market capitalization.…
After-Tax Nonfinancial Corporate Profits as Share of Gross Value Added While U.S. corporate profits fell in Q1 2025 due to higher costs and economic uncertainty, they remain historically high, reflecting both the strength and the…
Valuation – U.S. Equities vs. Rest of World – 12-Month Forward PE Ratios U.S. equities trade at historically high valuations versus global peers, with the premium widening. While strong fundamentals support this, it also poses…
U.S. Current Activity Indicator U.S. soft data and growth signals have improved slightly, largely due to a more favorable trade policy outlook following the partial rollback of tariffs. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance After at Least 15 Weeks of AAII Bears over Bulls Ends A streak of 15 consecutive weeks with more bears than bulls in the AAII survey is rare—only four other periods have…
Impact of Higher Tariffs on the U.S. Core PCE Price Index The coming inflation rebound is expected be limited in scope and duration, meaning it is unlikely to trigger the kind of persistent inflation psychology…
Money Market Fund Assets While the $7 trillion in money market funds is frequently cited as potential fuel for equities and risk assets, most evidence suggests this cash is primarily a result of yield optimization…
U.S. Recession Odds A Bloomberg survey in May 2025 puts the likelihood of a U.S. downturn in the next year at 40%—a drop from 45% in April, but still considerably higher than the 30% forecast…
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield and U.S. Federal Debt Held by the Public Even with U.S. federal debt at historic highs and projected to rise further, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remains low compared to the…