VIX Futures Curve Market participants are anticipating a potential decline in volatility, reflecting hopes for reduced uncertainty and stabilization of trade-related concerns impacting markets. Image: The Daily Shot

NBER Recession Dating vs. Market Realization Historically, the S&P 500 peaks and declines 6–16 months before the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) officially declares a U.S. recession, making it a reliable leading indicator. Image:…

Average Daily Equity ETF Flow vs. S&P 500 Performance Despite the S&P 500’s decline in Q1 2025, investors continued pouring money into equity ETFs, averaging nearly $3bn daily inflows—a sign of persistent appetite for U.S.…

Largest Calendar Year Peak to Trough S&P 500 Drawdown The S&P 500 has shown resilience over extended periods, often delivering positive annual returns despite experiencing significant intra-year volatility. Over the past 40 years, the median…

ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Are tariffs the bears’ secret weapon? While bulls struggle with market volatility, bears may capitalize on the economic chaos triggered by trade barriers! Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎

Quarterly Seasonality of S&P 500 Returns vs. STOXX Europe 600 U.S. equity returns tend to be strongest relative to Europe during the second quarter. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Trade Policy Uncertainty Indexes Uncertainty in trade policy often leads to positive future returns for the S&P 500, as markets tend to price in worst-case scenarios during unclear times. Once clarity emerges, stocks frequently recover.…

S&P 500 Average Monthly Return Above and Below 200-Day Moving Average Historically, the S&P 500 has performed well in April, averaging gains of over 2% since 1950 when starting below its 200-day moving average. Image:…

ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day It’s tariff day, and traders are as excited as shoppers on Black Friday—except everything is now on sale for double the price! Happy “Hump” Day, Everyone! 🐫🐪😎

Average S&P 500 Returns Following 35 Corrections of 10% Since 1950 Market corrections of 10% in the S&P 500 are a normal aspect of market cycles, often presenting long-term investors with attractive buying opportunities, especially…

April Returns After the 10 Worst Marchs Ever for the S&P 500 Index Historical data since 1950 shows that following the 10 worst March performances, the S&P 500 index has averaged a 2.9% return in…