Central Bank Gold Holdings Despite a significant gold price rally, private investors have largely been absent, especially compared to the aggressive purchases made by central banks. Image: Alpine Macro

U.S. Domiciled Mutual Funds While U.S. money market holdings remain historically low, equity allocations are high, reflecting a significant shift in investor behavior towards riskier assets in pursuit of higher returns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…

Percent of 10 Yield Curves Inverted Historically, inverted yield curves have successfully anticipated every recession in the United States, highlighting their importance as an economic indicator. Will this time be an exception? Image: Real Investment…

% of Days per Year to Make a New All-Time High for the S&P 500 The S&P 500’s performance this year reflects a strong bullish trend, with over one-fifth of trading days achieving new all-time…

S&P 500 and S&P 500 Cumulative Net Up Volume Recent upside breakouts in S&P 500 cumulative net up volume, along with other bullish indicators, suggest that the S&P 500 may continue to reach new highs,…

Sentiment – Global Equity Risk-Love The Global Equity Risk-Love indicator, currently at the 68th percentile, has moved out of the euphoria territory, allowing for potential upside as we approach year-end. Image: BofA Predictive Analytics

U.S. Recessions – 6-Month Fed Funds Minus Current Fed Funds Rate Historically, U.S. recessions have often followed periods of bearish short-term interest rates, particularly when the Fed cuts rates in response to economic downturns or…

Market Pricing of Fed Rate Cuts BofA expects the Fed to cut another 75bp this year, consistent with market pricing, particularly in light of recent economic conditions and the Fed’s recent decision to cut rates…

U.S. Unemployment Rate The U.S. “job plentiful” index has experienced a significant decline, reaching its lowest level since 2017, which could signal broader economic challenges ahead. Image: Deutsche Bank

Valuation – Real S&P 500 % Deviation from Exponential Growth Trend While the S&P 500’s long-term growth potential remains intact, current valuations suggest that a return to mean levels is not only possible but likely…

S&P 500 Monthly New Highs per Month Since 1950, the S&P 500 has achieved 1,314 new all-time highs, highlighting its ability to rebound from market declines and continue its growth trajectory. Such growth periods often…