U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Four Mondays ago, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 1.48%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether…
Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index The Greed and Fear Index sits at 68.07, down from recent peaks as sentiment has cooled over the past two weeks. No alarm bells yet, but with September approaching, this shift in risk appetite deserves a close watch. Image: Real Investment Advice
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns History paints September as the worst month for U.S. stocks, with the weakest average return since 1950. But this year, August, typically sluggish in midterm years, is already up 3%. Do the odds look different this time? Image: Carson Investment Research
Consolidated Equity Positioning Consolidated equity positioning is only modestly overweight at the 62nd percentile, well short of crowded, so there’s still room to add risk. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
VIX Seasonality Summer calm rarely lasts. U.S. stock volatility usually kicks in about now. Does this time break the pattern? Image: Topdown Charts
U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History Risk appetite hasn’t faded. The Russell 2000 trades at 25 times forward earnings, above the Nasdaq 100 at 23 times and the S&P 500 at 20 times. Yes, the market looks pricey, but money keeps flowing into stocks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment With the NAAIM Exposure Index at 102.7, active managers are all-in on U.S. equities. Bullish positioning alone isn’t a sell signal, but it does leave the market vulnerable to a quick de-risking if sentiment flips. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index tracks the two-week average of U.S. equity…
Mega-Cap Growth and Large-Cap Tech Positioning Positioning in mega-cap growth and large-cap Tech has cooled from its highs but remains firmly overweight, now sitting in the 75th percentile. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Distributions of Returns of S&P 500 Since 1928 The S&P 500 has run well ahead of its long‑term median over the past years, but that kind of strength will be tough to repeat from today’s valuation levels. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns Going back to 1950, the S&P 500’s first half of September ranks as the sixth-weakest half-month in the annual cycle, a seasonally weak period for equities. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sector Fund Flows Over the past 12 months, investors have piled into tech funds on the back of AI fever, chip strength and improving earnings outlooks. Can the momentum hold? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation