U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Monday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 1.01%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S.…
S&P 500 Index – Best and Worst Days For the S&P 500, the worst days and the best usually arrive together. Skip the best days and you may miss the rebounds, but avoiding the big hits does more for long-term returns. Image: Real Investment Advice
Investors Intelligence Bull-Bear Spread and S&P 500 Bulls are slipping out the side door again. Over the past decade, every net gain in the S&P 500 came when the II bull-bear spread was above 20%. Today, that kind of confidence is in short supply. Image: Hi Mount Research
S&P 500 Performance vs. EM and DM Ex-U.S. Equities Since the Middle East conflict began, the S&P 500 has left global peers behind, outperforming both emerging and developed ex‑U.S. markets. Investors still see the U.S. as a relatively safe haven amid the turmoil. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Quarterly Annualized Real U.S. GDP Growth Under the baseline, oil prices hit $110 in March and ease to $71 by 2026 Q4, pulling the projected 2026 Q4/Q4 US GDP growth down 0.3 percentage points to 2.2%. The hit to output looks modest given how sharp the oil price swing is. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…
Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E Multiple Goldman Sachs’s top-down valuation model points to a 21x forward P/E for the S&P 500 at end-2026, a step down from 22x as oil volatility and macro headwinds cloud the picture. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equities and Wars Some major geopolitical events have knocked U.S. stocks down 15% or more before. Is this time different? For now, markets look like they’re pricing in hope, not fear. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 Futures vs. Brent Crude Oil S&P 500 futures and Brent crude oil have moved in tandem lately, but the correlation has softened this week. Are markets breaking away from oil prices? Maybe investors are focusing more on rates and earnings than commodities now. Image: Deutsche Bank
Fed Funds Rate vs. Gasoline Price / Core CPI When gasoline prices rise faster than inflation and move in step with growth, the Fed tends to lift rates. But what is the determining factor this time: strong demand or deep strain? It’s clearly the latter. Image: TS Lombard
VIX vs. S&P 500 Compared with past oil shocks, the S&P 500’s drop looks measured. Investors seem braced for short-term turbulence rather than a structural shift in sentiment. The pullback feels more like caution than panic. Image: BCA Research
Bloomberg Dollar Index One-Month Risk Reversals Currency markets are turning defensive, as demand for dollar upside and protection against violent swings gains pace amid Middle East tensions. Few things spook investors like uncertainty, and the greenback remains their safe haven. Image: Bloomberg