U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Tuesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 0.81%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S.…
Seasonality – S&P 500 Average Monthly Returns Since 1950 Since 1950, the S&P 500 has returned just 1.7% from May to October, versus more than 7% from November to April. When the market hits May near record highs, that already weak stretch has tended to get weaker. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Performance During the 1980-2000 and 2013-Current Secular Bull Markets The S&P 500 has been rising since March 2013, but age alone doesn’t call the top. The last secular bull market ran nearly two decades. If history is any guide, this one may still have further to go. Image: Carson Investment Research
Consolidated Equity Positioning At the 53rd percentile, equity positioning has edged into a modest overweight, still well short of crowded territory. The backdrop continues to support risk. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Insider Transactions Ratio With buying and selling now balanced, the Insider Transactions Ratio has slipped back into neutral. Insiders look to be in wait-and-see mode. Image: Barron’s
Valuation – S&P 500 NTM P/E At 16 times forward earnings versus 21 for the benchmark, the equal-weight index is not exactly cheap, but it looks better value on a relative basis. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Intra-Year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns On average, investors stomach drawdowns of around 14% a year, but the S&P 500 has still climbed in 35 of the past 46. That turbulence is part of the deal for long-term returns. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Number of S&P 500 Stocks Making New 52-Week Lows Above 20 The number of S&P 500 stocks hitting new 52-week lows is rising, rarely a healthy signal. In sustained bull markets, new lows tend to stay below 20. That is not the kind of breadth you want to see in a healthy uptrend. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Quarterly EPS Deutsche Bank sees S&P 500 earnings pushing above the long-term trend, broadly echoing Street expectations. At the end of the day, stocks follow profits. And profits have a way of drowning out the noise. Image: Deutsche Bank
Market Breadth – Percent Below 52-Week High S&P 500 Index Less Median Stock Record highs in the S&P 500 mask a sharp deterioration in breadth. For the bull market to extend, gains will need to spread more evenly across stocks and sectors. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings Surprises of S&P 500 Companies Earnings season keeps reinforcing the same message: corporate profits aren’t cracking yet, with 61% of S&P 500 firms smashing Q1 estimates by at least a standard deviation, while just 5% fell short. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research