U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Wednesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 followed through, ending the day up 0.46%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S.…
Cumulative Bull vs. Bear Markets (Points) Bear markets don’t just trim gains. They can erase most of the inflation-adjusted upside from an entire bull run. Which is why a late-cycle drop is never just noise. Image: Real Investment Advice
Percent of S&P 500 Stocks with Dividends > 10-Year Treasury Yield The income trade has reversed. In July 2016, 63.4% of S&P 500 stocks yielded more than the 10-year U.S. Treasury. Today, fewer than 4.5% do, leaving Treasuries with higher yields than almost every blue-chip stock. Image: Ned Davis Research
Discretionary Positioning vs. Earning Growth Discretionary positioning is lagging earnings growth, which means the rally isn’t done yet. If revisions stay supportive and macro risks stay in check, expect more cash to move into equities. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Price Rebased to Sept 1 = 100 of Each Midterm Years Midterm years tend to weigh on stocks, and September deserves extra care. Since WWII, the S&P 500 has fallen an average of 1.5% from Sept. 1 to its low, which tends to arrive in early October. Image: BCA Research
Volatility – VIX Index Average Summer calm often gives way to autumn volatility. Are markets braced for a rougher ride ahead? Image: Bloomberg
AAII Asset Allocation U.S. retail investors turned more optimistic into August, lifting their stock allocation to a year-to-date high of 71.1%. For this crowd, it’s a vote of confidence in equities. Image: Daily Chartbook
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed trimmed its Q3 2026 GDP nowcast to 2.22% from 2.27%, a minor adjustment that keeps the U.S. growth story on track. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New YorkClick the Image to Enlarge
S&P 500 Median Monthly Realized Volatility – Midterm Election Years vs. All Years Midterm years usually bring more turbulence to the S&P 500, particularly in October, while the market waits to see who ends up controlling Congress and how that reshapes taxes, regulation and spending. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Small Cap Equity Positioning Small caps aren’t getting much love right now. Positioning is only at the 48th percentile, far from crowded territory and leaving plenty of room to add exposure. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Market Breadth – Percent Below 52-Week High S&P 500 Index Less Median Stock The S&P 500 52-week market breadth is improving, but participation remains narrow. For bulls, that’s constructive: durable uptrends typically demand wider participation. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research