U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Thursday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 0.72%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S.…
S&P 500 Average Monthly Returns Since 1964 September is typically a weak month for U.S. equities, and midterm years tend to make it worse. Once Election Day passes, uncertainty lifts and markets frequently improve. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Performance After a Positive August and YTD Between 10% and 17.5% History says this setup is bullish. Since 1945, when August closed in the green with the market up between 10% and 17.5% year-to-date, September through December rallied 91% of the time, with an average 5.6% return. Image: Carson Investment Research
Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total A handful of giants now run the S&P 500. The top 10 stocks make up 39% of the index’s weight and 36% of its earnings, pushing valuations up and leaving each day’s trade more exposed to sudden swings. Image:…
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment With the Fear & Greed Index at 58, investors are leaning greedy but not euphoric. That kind of healthy risk appetite still leaves room for the market to climb. Image: Cable News Network
U.S. Equity Market Capitalization Since ChatGPT launched, multiple expansion has contributed 25% of the surge in U.S. market cap, crushing the equity risk premium and leaving little room for error if AI demand or earnings disappoint. Image: BCA Research
S&P 500 and 10-Year Yield Correlation Daily moves in U.S. stocks and 10-year UST yields have turned sharply negative, eclipsing 2022 levels. But over the past four years, it has been the volatility of rates, not their level, that has driven equity returns. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
AAII Sentiment Survey U.S. retail investors are still playing defense. The AAII bull‑bear spread has been negative for three weeks in a row, widening again despite the S&P 500 near all-time highs. It’s exactly the kind of setup contrarians love. Image: The Daily Chartbook
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs sees little sign of the U.S. economy losing momentum, forecasting growth of 2.2% in 2026 and 2.3% in 2027, slightly above consensus, as the labor market remains resilient. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
PHLX Semiconductor Index Intra-Year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns Every year, the PHLX Semiconductor Index makes investors sit through an average 30% drawdown. But it has closed higher in 20 of the last 31 years. Welcome to the cost of long-term alpha in semis. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Share of Mutual Funds Outperforming Benchmarks 42% of large-cap mutual funds are beating their benchmarks, still above the long-term average of 37%. The catch? Most managers who beat the market one period can’t do it again the next. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research