U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Monday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 1.15%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the…
Net Bullish Sentiment vs. S&P 500 Index Investor sentiment has turned sharply risk‑averse in recent weeks, as the Middle East conflict and its potential spillovers have made markets more cautious about risk assets. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Performance per Year of a 4-Year Presidential Cycle Even when midterms shake investor sentiment, history leans bullish, with U.S. stocks up an average of 8.8% in second presidential terms since 1950. Midterm jitters often fade faster than many think. Image: Carson Investment Research
Sectors Positioning (High Frequency) Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech is underweight, and cyclicals are even more out of favor as growth worries linger. But positioning could flip fast on any sign of good news. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index rose surged 2.6% in February. Trucks represent 72.7% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows that, historically, the U.S. stock market has tended to increase in line with the physical size and expansion of the U.S. economy…
CTAs Exposure to the U.S. Dollar After betting against the U.S. dollar, Commodity Trading Advisors are easing up on their shorts and edging toward neutral. Few will be surprised as the greenback finds support when the world gets nervous. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies have slipped to neutral, with positioning now in the 40th percentile, as higher volatility has triggered a recent bout of de-risking. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Brent Crude Oil Price in Real Terms The longer the oil shock drags on, the greater the risk it spills into the broader economy. For now, traders are betting this surge won’t last, expecting that tensions will cool and prices will retreat. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History The S&P 500 Financials sector looks relatively cheap versus other sectors, and that caution appears somewhat overdone relative to the current fundamentals. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Impact of U.S. Quarter-Over-Quarter Annualized GDP Growth The conflict in the Middle East is set to drag U.S. growth well below trend, with the economy losing steam in the second half as fiscal tailwinds fade and tighter financial conditions bite. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Recession Probability Recession odds in the U.S. have dropped to levels that favor continued growth rather than an imminent slump. Image: Deutsche Bank Research