U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Wednesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing up 0.30%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock…
U.S. Household Equity Ownership vs. S&P 500 Index U.S. households have never been this heavily invested in stocks. The higher the concentration, the greater the risk that a market pullback hits both confidence and consumption, reversing wealth effects. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Returns After Seven Month Win Streaks Seven winning months in a row? Since 1950, the S&P 500 has pulled that off 16 times and history says momentum like this rarely cools: nine out of ten times, the rally kept rolling over the next 6 months, posting an average 7% gain. Image: Carson Investment…
Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance Risk appetite is surging among U.S. equity fund managers, who are betting on robust returns, as optimism builds around rate cuts, economic momentum, and earnings strength. Image: S&P Global Market Intelligence
S&P 500 Weekly Announced Buybacks S&P 500 buyback announcements have cooled lately, but most analysts see it as a breather after record highs rather than the start of something more serious. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 and Fed Funds Target Rate When the Fed cuts rates outside of a recession, U.S. stocks typically perform well. However, a perceived “too dovish” cut, signaling excessive economic worry, could disrupt the ongoing year-end stock rally. Image: Bloomberg
MOVE Index vs. S&P 500 S&P 500 performance tends to move in step with interest rate swings. When rate uncertainty builds, investors recalibrate risk, and volatility often follows. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Fed Funds Rate – 2026 Year-End Rate Levels Expectations Deutsche Bank’s latest poll of 40 global market participants shows expectations for the fed funds rate at end-2026 anchored near 3.2%, regardless of whether Powell keeps rates unchanged or opts for a 25-basis-point cut today. Image: Deutsche Bank
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed nudged its Q1 2026 U.S. GDP Nowcast lower to 2.22% from 2.66% a week earlier, a modest tweak that keeps the soft-but-steady growth story alive. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Click the Image to Enlarge
Cyclicals vs. Defensives – 12-Month Forward P/E Premium Cyclical stocks are leading the way in 2025, leaving defensives behind as optimism returns to markets. In the U.S., that surge has lifted cyclicals to a valuation premium over safer plays. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History Hopes for robust earnings and a softer Fed stance continue to lift the S&P 500, though lofty valuations across sectors suggest the margin for missteps is slim. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research