U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Monday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 1.65%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S.…
S&P 500 Index and Technical Score At 80.62, the S&P 500 has eased slightly from overbought levels but remains stretched, as dip buyers stepped in near the 50-DMA. Image: Real Investment Advice
AAII Bulls Minus Bears and S&P 500 Returns The S&P 500 trades near record highs, up more than 10% year to date, but US retail sentiment refuses to follow. The AAII bull-bear spread remains stuck in negative territory. That kind of skepticism can keep the rally alive. Image: Carson Investment Research
Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies sit in the 46th percentile, while discretionary investors are only at the 25th percentile, leaving overall exposure far from crowded and with ample room to build. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Insider Transactions Ratio With buying and selling now in balance, the Insider Transactions Ratio has moved back into neutral territory. Corporate insiders appear to be on the sidelines, showing little conviction on direction. Image: Barron’s
Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E Multiple Since October 2025, the S&P 500’s forward P/E has eased from 23 to 21, largely on the back of stronger forward earnings estimates. Valuations look less stretched than they did in the fall, but that does not make equities cheap. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Different Market Sentiment Indicators With volatility easing, market sentiment is back to neutral, a long way from euphoria and leaving room for further upside. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Cyclically-Adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE) vs. S&P 500 Return on Equity (ROE) Record profitability is helping justify elevated S&P 500 valuations, with trailing four-quarter ROE at 22%, a historic high. But if margins come under pressure and ROE slips, that support could quickly weaken. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Performance of S&P 500 Megacap Growth Stocks vs. Rest of S&P 500 Mega-cap growth and tech stocks relative to the rest of the S&P 500 have pulled back from the top of their long-term trend channel to the middle, a familiar unwind of stretched positioning rather than a shift in regime. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset…
Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns The back half of June has historically been a soft patch for the S&P 500, ranking as the second weakest half-month since 1950. Will this year break the pattern? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consensus EPS Growth Estimates Analysts expect very strong earnings growth ahead, with S&P 500 profits seen climbing 24% in 2026 and 17% in 2027, while small caps are expected to lead the charge at 36% this year and 38% next. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research