U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Tuesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 followed through, ending the day up 0.58%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S.…
Average Annual Real Return over the Following 10 Years, by Starting CAPE Valuation High starting CAPE valuations have often preceded disappointing returns for U.S. stocks, creating a particularly risky backdrop for investors just entering retirement. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Performance After a Negative Q1 and Then a >10% Q2 If history is any guide, the rally may have more room to run. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has finished higher in every Q4 when it declined in Q1 and rose more than 10% in Q2. The average Q4 return was 6.8%, keeping…
Average Cumulative S&P 500 Total Returns – Invest on Any Day vs. Invest at a New High When markets hit record highs, many investors step back. That caution has often come at a cost: buying into strength has historically delivered better returns than buying on an average day. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Performance – MCG & Tech Ratio to the Rest of the S&P 500 The rotation into Tech has been powerful, but the rally may still have fuel left. Continued earnings strength in AI infrastructure, cloud computing, and software could give investors reason to keep buying. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
CTAs Exposure to Bonds With bond allocation at the fourth percentile, CTAs are showing almost no appetite for rates risk. Fixed income has fallen firmly out of favor. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Hyperscaler Cloud Revenue Cloud revenue growth at the hyperscalers hit 48% in Q2. Goldman Sachs equity analysts forecast 55% in Q3. It’s an encouraging sign, but not proof that the AI spending boom will pay off. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed nudged its Q4 2026 U.S. GDP nowcast down to 2.55% from 2.59%, a minor revision that leaves the growth outlook intact. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New YorkClick the Image to Enlarge
S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History Energy still looks underpriced, while Industrials, Healthcare, and Consumer Staples leave less room for error. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
NASDAQ 100 vs. Tech Capex The Nasdaq 100 turned lower in 2000, nine months before tech investment as a share of U.S. GDP peaked. Will this time be different? Image: BCA Research
Market Breadth – Percent Below 52-Week High S&P 500 Index Less Median Stock The S&P 500 is at record highs, but market breadth has plunged. With gains concentrated in a handful of leaders, the rally looks vulnerable unless participation broadens. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research