U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Tuesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 0.60%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S.…
S&P 500 Performance from the October 26 Close to December 31, by Market Regime In the nine midterm years since 1951 when the S&P 500 was up year to date on October 26, it rose through year-end every single time, gaining an average of 6.14%. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Average Performance per Day The calendar favors the bulls: October 28 has historically been the S&P 500’s best day of the year. Will the Fed spoil the party today? Image: Carson Investment Research
Ownership of the U.S. Equity Market U.S. households now own 42% of the U.S. equity market. But that ownership is heavily concentrated, with nearly 90% in the hands of the wealthiest 10%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Seasonality – Average Path of the S&P 500 Through a Year Since 1928, With Midterm and Non-Midterm Years Averages mask wide dispersion, but if history is any guide, the S&P 500 is entering into a seasonally strong period. Image: Deutsche Bank
CTAs Exposure to Bonds CTAs are still keeping their distance from rates risk. Bond allocations sit at the 7th percentile, leaving fixed income firmly out of favor. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
MCG & Tech vs. Rest of S&P 500 MCG & Tech has fallen over the past two weeks while the rest of the S&P 500 pushed higher. The divergence points to sector rotation rather than a broader downturn in U.S. stocks. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
CTAs Exposure to Equities CTAs have continued to trim equity exposure, but positioning remains relatively high at the 62nd percentile. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year The market puts the odds of a U.S. recession over the next year at just 13%. Consensus is closer to 20%, above the historical average. Is the market underestimating the risk? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Forecasts for S&P 500 Earnings and Returns Goldman Sachs sees the S&P 500 climbing to 8,700 over the next 12 months, a 14% gain. Earnings growth, not multiple expansion, is expected to drive the advance. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Trailing 4-Quarter Net Equity Demand Household buying has stayed strong, more than offsetting weaker corporate demand for U.S. equities. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research