U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Wednesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing up 0.69%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock market…
Deviation of Earnings Above-Below Long Term Growth Trend vs. Valuations Whenever earnings detach from their long-term growth trend, markets usually follow with painful corrections. The current gap hints that risk is quietly building beneath the surface. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Performance per Year of a 4-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm years usually test investors’ nerves, but history leans in favor of the bulls: U.S. stocks typically outperform in a President’s second term, averaging an 8.8% gain since 1950. Image: Carson Investment Research
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment U.S. stocks are pushing higher, but the Fear & Greed Index at 18 shows plenty of market participants remain skeptical, leaving room for the rally to stretch further. Image: Cable News Network
Consolidated Equity Positioning With consolidated equity positioning still underweight at the 39th percentile, markets have room to lean back into risk should optimism keep building. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Risk appetite is picking up as both systematic strategies and discretionary investors boost exposure this week, creating a short‑term tailwind while positioning stays light enough to fuel further gains. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Sector ETF Flows ETF flows held strong as 2025 progressed, with another solid week for equity funds, while investors kept rotating from Financials to Healthcare. Image: Strategas Asset Management
Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 Why do U.S. stocks shine in December? Historically, it’s when the Santa Claus rally shows up, delivering an average 1.2% gain since 1964 and finishing higher 70% of the time. Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 and Combination of Forward PE, VIX, Bullish Sentiment After a short-lived reset earlier this year, the Euphoriameter — a composite of forward P/E, VIX, and bullish sentiment — is rolling over again from record-high optimism, flashing what could be an early warning for the market cycle. Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 Index and 50-Day Moving Average By reclaiming its 50-day moving average, the S&P 500 sends a strong technical signal that momentum is back on the bulls’ side and the rally may not be done yet. Image: Bloomberg
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment Active managers are running hot at 89.92, showing strong confidence in equities but not losing their heads to euphoria. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by NAAIM members. Image: NAAIM