U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Friday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing up 0.84%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock…
Cumulative Change in Consensus 2026 EPS Estimates AI infrastructure stocks have seen 2026 earnings estimates jump 55% since December 2024, versus just 7% for the broader S&P 500. Strip them out and earnings fall 1%. The concentration risk is obvious. Image: Real Investment Advice
Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies sit in the 64th percentile, while discretionary investor positioning is at the 58th percentile, pointing to positioning that is not yet crowded and can still expand. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Global Market Implied Equity Risk Premiums With equity risk premiums squeezed in the U.S. and Japan, stocks are offering little extra return over bonds, making the trade harder to justify and raising the odds of investor disappointment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Ownership of the U.S. Equity Market U.S. households hold 40% of the U.S. equity market. That sounds like broad ownership. In reality, nearly 90% of that stake is held by the wealthiest 10%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Nasdaq 100 Index Contribution in Years of +10-25% When the Nasdaq‑100 rises +10-25% in a year, the gains are usually driven by just three stocks. That is the nature of cap‑weighted indices. Narrow breadth isn’t a bug, it’s the engine. Image: Ned Davis Research
Consensus Hyperscaler Capex Estimates Hyperscaler capex is on track to reach $914 billion by 2028. At that scale, this no longer looks like a typical tech cycle. It starts to resemble a structural shift that reshapes the entire landscape. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Performance of S&P 500 Megacap Growth Stocks vs. Rest of S&P 500 Mega-cap growth and tech stocks versus the S&P 500 are pushing higher from the bottom of their longer-term trend channel, and are now approaching the top, with momentum still strong. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index vs. U.S. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) The ISM Services Prices Paid Index typically leads U.S. CPI by about three months, offering an early read on where inflation is heading. It has now surged to its highest since 2022. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History S&P 500 Financials still trade at relatively modest valuations compared with other sectors, while Industrials appear to be carrying a heavy dose of optimism. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consensus Forward 12-Month S&P 500 EPS Strong Q1 earnings have helped propel the S&P 500 higher this year, boosting investor confidence and supporting higher valuations. Earnings strength still sets the tone. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research