U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Tuesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was neutral well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 barely moved, closing up just 0.13%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock…
The Math of Drawdowns – Recovery Requied to Break Even After a Portfolio Decline Cut a portfolio in half and you need to double it to break even. That is not bad luck, it is simple compounding working against you. The bigger the loss, the tougher the climb back. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Performance One Year After 5% Monthly Gains The bulls have history on their side. Since 1950, a May rally of more than 5% in the S&P 500, like this year, has been followed by gains over the next year every single time, averaging 21%. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Quarterly Earnings Growth The rally in stocks was not just about price action; it was powered by the strongest S&P 500 earnings growth in at least four years. When earnings drive the move, it tends to last. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Equity Positioning Overall equity positioning is in the 61st percentile, pointing to a modest overweight. Crowding is building in large caps, especially tech, leaving the market vulnerable if momentum fades. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
MSCI AC World EPS Analysts keep nudging up MSCI AC World EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027, betting the AI and tech boom will drive margins and profits rather than another wave of exuberant spending. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 CAPE Ratio vs. U.S. Households Holding of Equities % Total Financial Assets When equity exposure is high and valuations are stretched, as they are today, the safety net disappears. History does not say a crash must follow, but it shows that markets priced for perfection react very poorly to bad news. Image: Topdown…
Sector ETF Flows Money is piling into tech. Since the S&P 500’s March 30 low, roughly $25 billion has flowed into tech sector ETFs, while non-tech sector ETFs have seen about $4 billion in combined outflows. Old habits die hard. Image: Strategas Asset Management
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed nudged its Q2 2026 U.S. GDP nowcast down to 2.50% from 2.61% a week earlier, still pointing to a steady expansion. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Click the Image to Enlarge
Number of U.S. IPOs 40 U.S. companies have gone public so far this year, while Goldman Sachs expects roughly 100 IPOs to raise about $160 billion in 2026. Geopolitical uncertainty and recent equity market volatility have kept issuance in check. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance – % Difference vs. the 200-DMA The S&P 500 is trading about 11% above its 200-day moving average, not far from past peaks. The further it stretches, the more vulnerable it becomes to a consolidation, or a move back toward the average. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation