U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Four Mondays ago, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell — and the S&P 500 delivered, closing up 1.56%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S.…
Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index At a Greed and Fear Index reading of 70.36, investors see pullbacks as buying invitations, not red flags — a sign of broad optimism and a taste for risk. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Performance During and After Government Shutdowns Even the longest government shutdown in U.S. history couldn’t rattle Wall Street. Stocks held firm—and historically, once Washington gets back to work, equities have gained an average of 12.7% over the next 12 months. Image: Carson Investment Research
Consolidated Equity Positioning Consolidated equity positioning sits modestly above neutral at the 53rd percentile — not bullish, not bearish, but with room to tilt risk-on if momentum gains pace. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning At -0.9, Goldman’s U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator points to a cautious mood among investors, a backdrop that has typically preceded modest S&P 500 gains over the following month. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History Valuations haven’t blinked. The S&P 500 sits at 23 times forward earnings, the Nasdaq 100 at 29 — investors are betting big on the next earnings leg, led by tech and AI heavyweights. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Overall market positioning points to a cautious risk appetite with discretionary investors sitting just below neutral, and systematic strategies easing exposures from overweight levels. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Trend Channel The S&P 500 is testing the bottom of its trend channel — a line bulls can’t afford to lose — while Deutsche Bank’s 7,000 call for 2025 flags conviction in robust earnings, steady buybacks, and enduring investor demand. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Insider Transactions Ratio The Insider Transactions Ratio paints a picture of balance—insiders are neither rushing to buy nor eager to cash out. Image: Barron’s
Valuation – S&P 500 Real Value Index Since 1871, the S&P 500 real total returns, dividends reinvested, have averaged 6.9% a year. The U.S. Real Value Index has always mean-reverted — and right now, it is between 10% and 20% above fair value. Image: TS Lombard
S&P 500 Price Target for 2025 and 2026 The bull case remains alive, according to Goldman Sachs, which targets 7,200 on the S&P 500 by late 2026, crediting rate cuts and profit growth for the push higher. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research