U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Friday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing up 0.69%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock…
S&P 500 Index and Technical Score With a reading of 71.13, the S&P 500 has eased over the last month. Some added softness wouldn’t surprise as February winds down, but optimism still outweighs caution. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Index Returns in February The S&P 500 tends to lose a bit of steam as February winds down, with the final days often trending softer. Nobody likes it, but few are really surprised. Image: Carson Investment Research
Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies are holding steady at the 68th percentile, while discretionary investors are still cautious at the 29th percentile, leaving plenty of room for upside if momentum kicks in. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Short Interest as % of Market Capitalization S&P 500 Median At 2.7%, short interest for the median S&P 500 stock is on the high side, but the buildup appears tied to portfolio hedging, not a wave of bearish bets. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Different Market Sentiment Indicators Global equity inflows continue to prop up risk appetite, though some signs of softer sentiment are starting to surface, hinting at a typical consolidation phase. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Software Stocks (IGV) and Forward P/E The recent weakness in software stocks reflects a valuation de-rating rather than deteriorating fundamentals. Retail investors have been adding exposure on dips, even as institutional money stays cautious. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – Magnificent Seven Forward P/E The Magnificent 7 are trading at their lowest premium to the rest of the S&P 500 in a decade. That doesn’t necessarily make them cheap, but the risk‑reward looks far more balanced now. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The current market-implied probability of a U.S. recession within the next 12 months is 17%, slightly higher than average and pointing to a mild risk backdrop. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Cumulative Global Sector Fund Flows Industrial funds have seen a surge in inflows over the past year, outpacing every other sector and showing no sign of losing momentum. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Global Equities Performance Since spring 2025, the stock rally has gone global, with Europe and Asia powering ahead while U.S. equities lag behind. Broad participation like this often keeps bull markets running longer than most anticipate. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research