U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Wednesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing up 0.54%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock market…
S&P 500 Index and BB to 10-Year Treasury Spread Keeping an eye on the junk to Treasury bond spread can reveal how healthy the U.S. market really is, and where it might be going next. The bond market usually sends signals before stocks react. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 -10% Or More Annual Declines Are Rare Double-digit declines in the S&P 500 during a calendar year are rare, but they never come out of nowhere. Since 1928, they’ve occurred only twelve times, and each drop came with its own story. Image: Carson Investment Research
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and DXY Weighted 2-Year Rate Differential The U.S. dollar’s recent gains have been surprisingly modest, given the backdrop. In fact, rate differentials still argue for a softer greenback. Image: TS Lombard
Average U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Performance After Oil Shocks Historically, sharp oil‑price spikes have often, but not always, been followed by weaker bond performance because higher energy costs push headline inflation and expectations of future inflation higher. Image: Deutsche Bank
Valuation – S&P 500 NTM P/E At a forward P/E of 16 against 20 for the benchmark, the equal-weight index isn’t exactly cheap, but valuations beyond the tech heavyweights look much less stretched. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed nudged its Q2 2026 U.S. GDP Nowcast down to 2.67% from 2.68% a week ago, a barely noticeable trim that keeps the steady‑growth story alive. No real change in the outlook so far. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Click the Image to Enlarge
U.S. Unemployment Rate Softer growth is set to nudge joblessness higher, with U.S. unemployment seen near 4.6% by year‑end and closer to 4.9% under a harsher oil shock scenario. Image: Deutsche Bank
Energy Positioning vs. Oil Price Energy positioning is lagging what you’d expect considering how far oil prices have already moved up. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Index The S&P 500 has gone nowhere for six months, stuck in a tight trading range. A long consolidation like this often sets up a bigger breakout, one way or the other. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 3-Month Option-Implied Volatility Since 2024, the volatility of the average stock in the S&P 500 has been on the rise. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research