U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Thursday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was not bullish at all, well before the opening bell. The S&P 500 followed through, ending the day down 4.36%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether…
S&P 500 Price Return in the 3 Months Before Each Midterm Election vs. the 6 and 12 Months After Bulls have a reason to smile: the post-midterm rally has been remarkably reliable. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been higher 6 and 12 months after all 19 midterm elections. Can it make it 20? Image:…
S&P 500 Various Declines per Year The S&P 500 is now facing its second pullback of at least 5% this year. Even after yesterday’s sharp selloff, the decline remains relatively modest. What matters is how investors handle the turbulence and stay the course. Image: Carson Investment Research
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment With the Fear & Greed Index at 21, fear is gripping the market. Such deep pessimism can leave room for a bounce, if sentiment improves. Image: Cable News Network
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment Caution is creeping in, but active managers remain heavily invested in U.S. stocks, with the NAAIM Exposure Index at 78.62. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index tracks the two-week average of U.S. equity exposure reported by NAAIM members. Image: The Daily Chartbook
Hyperscaler Capex Estimates by Year Are investors underestimating the AI capex cycle? This isn’t a temporary surge. It is a structural multiyear sprint for the silicon, power, and capacity required to scale. Image: BCA Research
Large Cap Utilities Positioning The rally since late September hasn’t shifted the mood much: Utilities positioning sits at the second percentile, leaving room for investors to add exposure. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Hyperscaler Investement as Share of U.S. GDP and Estimated Wealth Effect A pullback in AI stocks could hit household wealth and weigh on spending. Positive wealth effects have added 0.4 percentage point to U.S. GDP over the past year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sentiment – Tech Risk Appetite Indicator Risk appetite for Tech has slumped to near Liberation Day levels. But sentiment can shift quickly, and it may take little to spark a revovery. Image: TS Lombard
S&P 500 Year/Year Earnings Growth Strip out mega-cap tech’s “other income,” and S&P 500 earnings growth is tracking at 33% year over year in Q3 2026. The forecast drops to 18% in 2027, but that’s still robust growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuations – NTM P/E: MCG & Tech vs. Rest of S&P 500 Tech valuations look nothing like the dot-com excesses. But “not a dot-com bubble” doesn’t mean “cheap” or “low risk.” Today’s multiples still rely on earnings forecasts holding up. Image: Deutsche Bank Research