U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Wednesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 1.46%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the…
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 EPS Annual % Change With the ISM Manufacturing Index and S&P 500 earnings growth moving hand in hand, either ISM climbs into the high 50s as the cycle heats up, or earnings estimates reset lower. At this point in the cycle, the revisions tend to come first. Image:…
S&P 500 Annual Highs Per Month This is still a bull market to love, even as the bears are making more noise. May peaks are rare and June has never marked the top for the S&P 500. With new highs within reach, the rally may have further to run. Image: Carson Investment Research
Insider Transactions Ratio Insider activity remains balanced, keeping the Insider Transactions Ratio in neutral territory. For now, there is no indication of aggressive positioning from insiders. Image: Barron’s
Equity Positioning Equity positioning sits at the 61st percentile, leaning modestly overweight while still leaving room to add on strength. The backdrop remains supportive for risk. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
MSCI World Sector/Style Valuations Valuations are stretched across sectors and styles, leaving investors with almost no room for error. That is what makes this market so tricky. If sentiment turns, there is not much to catch the fall. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance U.S. equity fund managers are cautiously stepping back into risk as the earnings outlook brightens. Sentiment is improving on growing confidence in corporate profits, alongside a more constructive view on the U.S. economy. Image: S&P Global Market Intelligence
S&P 500 Around Major Geopolitical Events Since 1939 What started as a geopolitical bounce has morphed into an earnings-driven rally. The move has been fast, but not stretched. Positioning appears to be playing catch-up with earnings that surprised to the upside. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Hyperscaler Year/Year Cash Spending Growth Hyperscalers are ramping up AI spending, leaving less capacity for buybacks and dividends. The trade-off is weaker near-term payouts in exchange for longer-term upside. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed edged its Q2 2026 U.S. GDP Nowcast up to 2.59% from 2.52% last week, reinforcing the steady-growth backdrop. That adds a bit of fuel to the risk-on mood. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Click the Image to Enlarge
Hyperscaler Capex Hyperscaler capex is on track for $755 billion this year, rising to $892 billion by 2027. At that scale, this looks less like a typical tech cycle and more like something structurally bigger. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research