U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Thursday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing up 0.26%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock market…
S&P 500 Annual Rate of Change vs. Annual Change in GAAP Earnings The S&P 500 tends to track corporate earnings, so strategies built on profit growth make sense for investors playing the long game. In the end, it’s earnings that lift stocks and sustainable growth beats short-term noise every time. Image: Real Investment Advice
Nasdaq-100 Win Streaks of 12 Days or More and Future Returns A 12-day winning streak has pushed the Nasdaq-100 into rare territory. History is on the bulls’ side with similar streaks leading to positive returns one year out every time since 1985, averaging 19.4%. Image: Carson Investment Research
Excess CAPE Yield and Subsequent 10-Year Real Return The excess CAPE yield, which measures the gap between bond yields and the inverse of the P/E ratio, indicates that U.S. stocks look pricey, making now a tough entry point for buyers. The risk/reward looks thin at these levels. Image: Bloomberg
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment With the Fear & Greed Index at 63, markets are tilting toward greed. Not extreme yet, but spirited enough to keep the rally going. Image: Cable News Network
U.S. Stock Market Valuations – Combined P/E Ratio U.S. tech stocks still command a premium over the broader market, fueled by strong growth prospects, though that gap looks unlikely to close unless a recession shakes investor confidence. Image: Topdown Charts
Rolling S&P 500 Change Over 11 Sessions It’s a rare burst of momentum: the S&P 500 has gained more than 10% in just 11 sessions, something that’s happened only 15 times this century. Moves like this remind us how unpredictable markets can be. Image: Deutsche Bank
MSCI AC World EPS Analysts keep raising MSCI AC World EPS forecasts for 2026, betting that the AI and tech boom will keep driving real profit growth and wider margins, not just another round of hype and heavy capex. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
AAII Sentiment Survey U.S. retail investors remain cautious. The AAII bull-bear spread has stayed in negative territory for a ninth straight week, even as the S&P 500 trades at all-time highs, a setup that typically leans contrarian bullish. Image: The Daily Chartbook
U.S. Real GDP Growth Betting on the resilience of the U.S. economy, Goldman Sachs sees growth holding at 2.3% in 2026 and easing slightly to 2.0% in 2027, helped by tax cuts, easier financial conditions, and fewer tariff pressures. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment At 79.49, the latest NAAIM Index shows active managers remain bullish on U.S. equities, confident but not euphoric, even as the S&P 500 hits a record high. Confidence without FOMO usually keeps rallies healthy. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S.…