U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Thursday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 followed through, ending the day up 0.33%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S.…
S&P 500 Earnings vs. Their Long-Term Trend Consensus earnings estimates for the S&P 500 are now roughly 50% above their long-term growth trend. That alone doesn’t signal a market top, but it’s a familiar late-cycle warning sign. Image: Real Investment Advice
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment Active managers have trimmed their exposure to US equities, with the NAAIM Exposure Index slipping to 74.53, its lowest level in four weeks. But they haven’t turned bearish. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index tracks the two-week average of U.S. equity exposure reported by NAAIM members. Image: The…
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment With the Fear & Greed Index at 32, fear remains high. Some traders are spooked, while others see a buying opportunity. That kind of pessimism can set the stage for a rebound. Image: Cable News Network
Annual Cloud Capex J.P. Morgan projects cloud capex will climb to $967 billion in 2026 and $1.425 trillion in 2027 driven by surging AI demand, before flattening out from 2028 to 2030. Image: J.P. Morgan
Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total The S&P 500 has become a market of giants. Its 10 largest stocks make up 41% of the index and 38% of its earnings, leaving investors increasingly reliant on a narrow group of companies. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment…
Seasonality of Market Performance – MSCI USA If history is any guide, the U.S. stock market is in a seasonally strong period, one that has often produced the market’s best returns of the year. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History Energy still looks cheap, while Industrials, Healthcare, and Consumer Staples have less room for disappointment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession U.S. real retail sales stand at 2.48% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, U.S. real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
Hyperscalers Realized Return on Invested Capital Hyperscalers’ ROIC has dropped from 40% to 25%. But the bigger concern is that the AI buildout may be less profitable than reported, with shadow debt and circular financing emerging beneath the surface. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Markets are signaling steady growth, not a boom. The gap between cyclicals and defensives points to 1.9% real GDP growth in the U.S., in line with Goldman Sachs’ forward 4Q GDP growth forecast. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research