U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Two Wednesdays ago, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was neutral well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 barely moved, closing down just 0.10%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the…
Margin Debt Balances – YoY % Change NYSE margin debt now exceeds $1.4 trillion, a 54% jump from a year ago and accelerating rapidly toward record territory. History shows that when leverage grows faster than the market, the cycle is usually in its later stages. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Performance During Trump Years After a weak first quarter, the S&P 500 is tracking the familiar Trump-era playbook, with a rally still very much in play for the rest of the year. For now, bulls have little to complain about. Image: Carson Investment Research
Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index The Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index is at one of its most accommodative levels in years, a friendly setup for borrowing, fund-raising and broader risk appetite. Image: Deutsche Bank
The Performance of the S&P 500 Before and After Midterm Elections The post-midterm playbook has been remarkably consistent. Across the past 20 midterm elections since World War II, the S&P 500 was higher nine months later every single time. Image: Deutsche Bank
Healthcare Positioning At just the 32nd percentile, healthcare positioning still looks underweight, leaving investors room to build positions. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Different Market Sentiment Indicators As volatility has eased over the past month, sentiment stays risk-on, but the mood is nowhere near euphoric, leaving room for more upside. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Semiconductor Earnings vs. Hyperscaler Free Cash Flows Semiconductor earnings are riding the AI capex wave, but hyperscaler free cash flow is taking a hit as spending on chips, data centers, and networking accelerates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs expects the U.S. economy to hold steady, forecasting 2.0% growth in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, with a resilient labor market keeping the expansion on track. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Dollar Net Positioning Traders haven’t been this bullish on the dollar in years. The greenback is gaining ground as markets price in a Fed hike. Dead dollar? Not yet. Image: Bloomberg
Median Short Interest Across Russell 3000 Stocks Median short interest across Russell 3000 names has surged to multi-year highs as bearish positioning intensifies, setting the stage for a potential squeeze. Crowded shorts have a habit of turning into aggressive buying. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation