U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Friday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 0.73%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the…
Investor Psychology Cycle Panic can push markets too far, too fast, creating opportunities for contrarians willing to buy when fear peaks. Euphoria is the other side of the trade, and often signals that it’s time to sell. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Yearly Performance During Bull Markets Age alone is no reason to call time on a bull market. Bull markets that reach year four have more often than not delivered another strong year, averaging 18.9% and giving bulls a new reason to smile. Image: Carson Investment Research
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment At 38, the Fear & Greed Index remains in fear territory, not panic. Better news could help U.S. stocks push higher. Image: Cable News Network
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment With the NAAIM Exposure Index at 86.76, active managers remain firmly bullish on U.S. stocks, keeping equity exposure high without reaching euphoric levels. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index tracks the two-week average of U.S. equity exposure reported by NAAIM members. Image: The Daily Chartbook
Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total A handful of giants now dominate the S&P 500. The 10 largest stocks make up 40% of the index and 37% of its earnings, pushing valuations higher and leaving investors more exposed to a narrow group of companies. Image:…
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at 0.61% YoY in September. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…
Earnings Sentiment – S&P 500, STOXX 600, Topix, MSCI EM Analysts have raised their S&P 500 earnings outlook in recent weeks, with resilient profits lifting market sentiment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns Around Midterm Elections The S&P 500 rose in 21 of the past 23 midterm cycles, from one month before Election Day through two months after. That window opens this week, with Election Day less than a month away. Historically, the median gain has been 7%. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs sees little sign of a meaningful U.S. slowdown, forecasting growth of 2.4% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, broadly in line with consensus, as a resilient labor market continues to support activity. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Semiconductors: Earnings Growth vs. Prices AI demand remained robust in Q3, with several indicators pointing to more upside. Deutsche Bank expects the tailwind to boost earnings across mega-cap growth and technology stocks. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation