U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Monday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 1.02%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S.…
S&P 500 Forward Returns After Extreme AAII Bearish Sentiment Peaks Since 1990, when the AAII bearish sentiment exceeded 45%, as it did recently, the S&P 500 has delivered strong 12‑month gains, averaging more than 18%. Once again, the market looks ready to climb just when investors least expect it. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Up 7 Days in a Row and Up >7% After seven straight days of gains and a jump of more than 7%, history points to more good news ahead: median six‑month gains of 18.2% have followed similar streaks since 1950, putting a smile on bulls’ faces. Image: Carson Investment Research
Gold Futures Positioning Despite the drop in gold prices in March, futures positioning held steady, suggesting that investors were buying downside protection rather than making a strong directional bet. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Insider Transactions Ratio With insider buying and selling now evenly matched, the Insider Transactions Ratio has returned to neutral territory. Corporate insiders seem to be taking a wait‑and‑see stance. Image: Barron’s
Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies stay underweight at the 26th percentile, while discretionary investors positioning has edged up but remains cautious at the 28th percentile. A change in sentiment could quickly fuel a move up. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Financials Positioning vs. Earnings Growth Positioning in financials is still unusually light, leaving ample room to build exposure. Such caution looks misplaced given the upbeat consensus on earnings growth. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Evolution of S&P 500 Consensus Earnings Optimism is building on Wall Street. Analysts have lifted their S&P 500 bottom-up earnings forecasts for Q2 2026, betting on stronger corporate profit momentum through the year. It’s encouraging to see sentiment turning more positive. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Mega-Cap Growth & Tech Positioning vs. Earnings Growth Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech is bracing for an earnings slowdown, but data are challenging that view. Should sentiment turn, risk appetite could snap back fast and push stocks higher. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Impact of U.S. Quarter-Over-Quarter Annualized GDP Growth The boost from the 2025 fiscal bill may be short-lived, as the conflict in the Middle East drives oil prices higher and curbs U.S. growth prospects. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consensus EPS Growth Estimates The Middle East conflict hasn’t rattled Wall Street. Analysts still expect S&P 500 earnings to rise 18% in 2026 and 16% in 2027, while small caps could post a 44% profit surge this year and another 32% next. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research