U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Five Fridays ago, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 0.53%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether…
Valuation – Real S&P 500 Index with Recessions and S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio Markets move in full cycles, swinging from long bull runs to deep bear phases. These patterns have played out time and again through history and remain essential to grasp for anyone focused on long-term investing. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Annual Highs Per Month It’s still a bull market to love, even as the bears grow louder. History rarely sees the S&P 500 peak in October, and with new highs within reach, U.S. stocks may still have more room to run. Image: Carson Investment Research
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment The Fear & Greed Index, now at 7, reflects heavy pessimism among most market participants, a setup that contrarian investors may find appealing. Image: Cable News Network
Equities – 10-Year Forward Annualized Total Returns in Local Currency Rich valuations aren’t stopping Goldman Sachs from backing global equities, with Emerging Markets and Asia seen leading performance over the next 10 years. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Volatility – U.S. Options Expiration $3.1 trillion in options notional value is set to expire today, the largest November expiration on record and potentially injecting fresh volatility into markets. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -3.03% YoY in September. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…
AAII Sentiment Survey The AAII bull-bear spread ticked higher this week but stayed in the red. Sentiment remains cautious, but history shows that persistent gloom often plants the seeds of the next rally rather than signaling another leg lower. Image: The Daily Chartbook
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs sees the U.S. economy keeping its edge, calling for GDP growth of 2.1% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026 — outpacing consensus — with stable inflation and a strong labor backdrop sustaining the expansion. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment With a reading of 86.56, active managers remain firmly bullish on U.S. stocks, keeping significant equity exposures that reflect optimism but not euphoria. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by NAAIM members. Image: NAAIM
Mentions of AI During Earnings Calls AI is taking center stage in corporate America, with an increasing number of S&P 500 companies spotlighting it in their earnings calls, and the momentum shows no signs of slowing. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research