U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Tuesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing up 0.25%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock…
Real S&P 500 Index vs. Conflicts Markets are quick to price in fear. The S&P 500 usually dips when conflict erupts, but it often manages to recover its losses as long as demand and earnings remain strong. Short-term fear rarely changes the long-term story. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Around Over 30 Major Geopolitical Events Since 1939 After past geopolitical shocks, the S&P 500 has historically bottomed in about 15 trading days. Will history rhyme once again? If so, signs of stability may emerge before long. Image: Deutsche Bank
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment At 17 on the Fear & Greed Index, extreme fear still dominates. Some market participants are already panicking, while contrarians are starting to smell opportunity. Extreme fear often sets the stage for strong rebounds. Image: Cable News Network
Interest Rates – Market Pricing for the Number of Fed Rate Cuts Markets have sharply repriced the Fed path. Investors shouldn’t see “no rate cuts before 2027”, but they should recognize that the hurdle for 2026 easing has risen significantly. Cuts aren’t off the table, just harder to justify now. Image: The Daily Shot
Earnings Sentiment – S&P 500, STOXX 600, Topix, MSCI EM, MSCI World Analysts’ sentiment on S&P 500 earnings has cooled slightly in recent weeks but remains positive overall amid ongoing optimistic outlooks for the full year. The optimism is still there, but a bit more measured now. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
AAII Sentiment Survey Bearish sentiment among AAII investors has climbed above 50% for the first time in more than six months, a contrarian signal that often bodes well for U.S. stocks over the next two months. That kind of fear usually signals opportunity. Image: The Daily Chartbook
S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History Earnings optimism hasn’t cracked, and investors are keeping most S&P 500 sectors richly priced. As long as profits keep rolling in, few seem ready to question the price tag. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment The NAAIM index, now at 60.24, shows active managers stepping away from U.S. equities as caution spreads across the market. Choppy sessions in recent weeks have kept sentiment on edge. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by…
S&P 500 Technical Composite A composite of technical breadth measures still shows the S&P 500 deep in oversold territory, setting the stage for a reflexive rebound if sentiment turns. Such setups can flip fast once buyers return. Image: MarketDesk Research
Hyperscalers Realized Year/Year Growth – Earnings vs. Free Cash Flow While hyperscalers are still delivering steady earnings, their free cash flow growth has sharply cooled, and that gap could prove costly, since stock performance has often mirrored free cash flow trends closely. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research