U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Wednesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 1.05%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the…
S&P 500 Average Monthly Returns Since 1950 Since 1950, May has been a dead spot for U.S. stocks. The market typically finds its footing in June and July, only to see momentum fade as August and September drag returns lower. Image: Real Investment Advice
Returns – S&P 500 Price Index and Implied Trend Growth Rate The S&P 500 sits squarely in the middle of its post-GFC trend channel, hardly stretched, but far from a bargain. Image: Deutsche Bank
Valuations and Dow Jones U.S. stocks are trading as if nothing can go wrong, with valuations in territory that has a habit of ending poorly. Timing the turn is always tricky, but when markets run this hot, even a small cooling in fundamentals can bite. Image: Bloomberg
Global Market Implied Equity Risk Premiums With equity risk premiums compressed in the U.S. and Japan, stocks offer limited upside over bonds, turning equities into a tougher bet and increasing the risk of frustration. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Discretionary Positioning and Ex-MCG & Tech Earnings Growth Discretionary positioning continues to lag earnings growth beyond MCG and Tech, leaving upside on the table if revisions hold and macro risks stay in check. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
MSCI AC World EPS Analysts are steadily lifting MSCI AC World EPS forecasts for 2026 and 2027, betting that the AI and tech boom will drive real profit growth and wider margins, not just another round of hype and heavy spending. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed nudged its Q2 2026 U.S. GDP Nowcast up to 2.81% from 2.75% a week ago, keeping the steady-growth narrative intact. That should sit well with markets. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Click the Image to Enlarge
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession The market is pricing a 13% chance of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months, just below the long-term average, keeping the risk backdrop relatively subdued. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Typical Path of S&P 500 Bottom-Up Consensus EPS Estimate Analysts usually trim EPS estimates in the first four months of the year. Not this time. In 2026, revisions are heading higher, fueled by AI optimism and backed by confident management guidance. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equity Sector Flows Money continues to pour into industrials, energy and materials, underscoring the ongoing tilt toward cyclical plays. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Derivatives Strategy