U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Thursday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing up 0.62%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock market…
S&P 500 Annual Rate of Change vs. Annual Change in GAAP Earnings The S&P 500 tends to move in step with corporate earnings, so strategies built around steady profit growth make sense for investors looking to play the long game. In the end, earnings are what push stock prices higher. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Performance After 6-Day Win Streaks and Up 6% Six days up in a row and a 6% surge: history says that combo often bodes well for U.S. stocks, with median 12-month gains of 18% since 1950, enough to keep the bulls smiling. Image: Carson Investment Research
Consumer Sentiment Index and Subsequent 12-Month S&P 500 Returns History shows that when consumer confidence sinks, stocks often rebound, turning gloom into a launchpad for gains. It’s the familiar rhythm of fear giving way to fresh optimism. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 Quarterly Earnings Growth Deutsche Bank is turning more bullish on corporate America. Backed by a supportive macro backdrop, it sees S&P 500 earnings growth coming in strong at 19.2% for Q1, comfortably ahead of consensus. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Valuations – Software vs. World ex. TMT and Technology vs. World TMT Valuations in global tech and software have narrowed sharply, with forward P/Es at their lowest level relative to world equities in more than five years. That could mark a buying window, assuming earnings momentum stays intact. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
AAII Sentiment Survey U.S. retail investors grew a bit more optimistic over the past week, but bears kept control for the eighth straight week. The mood is warming but far from a turnaround. Still, it’s a step in the right direction. Image: The Daily Chartbook
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment With the NAAIM index hovering at 69.38, active managers are sticking to their bullish stance on U.S. stocks. Bullish momentum seems alive for now. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by NAAIM members. Image: NAAIM
S&P 500 Technical Composite A composite of technical breadth measures suggests the S&P 500 is running hot, raising the odds of a short-term pullback after a stretch where good news has largely been priced in. A cooling-off period might be just what the market needs. Image: MarketDesk Research
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales slightly in March to 342K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy as a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge
U.S. Tech – 3-Month Change in Price vs. 3-Month Change in FY2 EPS Until recently, U.S. tech earnings and stock returns have run hand in hand. With the correlation breaking down, dips are looking more like entry points, supported by solid growth prospects tied to AI adoption. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research