U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Friday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 followed through, ending the day up 0.51%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the…
S&P 500 CAPE Ratio vs. Subsequent 10 Year Annualized Real Return The S&P 500 is trading at a Shiller CAPE level seen only during the market’s most expensive episodes. History points to real annualized returns of between -3.8% and -1.4% over the next 10 years. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Quarterly Returns Based on the Four-Year Presidential Cycle Bulls are still smiling. Historically, the S&P 500 has found its sweet spot from the fourth quarter of a president’s second year through the second quarter of the third year, a roughly nine-month window. Image: Carson Investment Research
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment At 28, the Fear & Greed Index is still in fear territory, but not panic. If the headlines improve, U.S. stocks have room to move higher. Image: Cable News Network
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment At 76.99, the NAAIM Exposure Index signals a modest pullback in active managers’ appetite for U.S. equities, but not a loss of conviction. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index tracks the two-week average of U.S. equity exposure reported by NAAIM members. Image: The Daily Chartbook
Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total The S&P 500 has become a market of giants. Its 10 largest stocks now represent 40% of the index and 37% of its earnings, pushing valuations higher while making the market more fragile. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Intra-Year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns The S&P 500 takes a hit of about 14% at some point each year. Investors hate it, but they have been rewarded over time: the index finished higher in 35 of the past 46 years. That’s the price investors pay for long-term gains. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset…
Global Market Implied Equity Risk Premiums Stocks in the U.S. and Japan offer investors little compensation for the extra risk they carry relative to bonds. That makes equities a tougher sell and leaves them vulnerable to disappointment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index U.S. manufacturing cooled slightly in September. The ISM Manufacturing Index slipped to 54.5, below expectations of 55.0, but remained in expansion territory for the ninth straight month. Growth remains on solid footing. The chart shows the correlation between the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and the S&P 500 index…
Earnings Growth – Mag 7 and S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 The Magnificent Seven are expected to deliver 57% earnings growth this year, more than double the 23% expected for the rest of the S&P 500. With tech still running hot, betting against them looks like a losing trade. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs sees no sign of the US economy slowing meaningfully, sticking with a 2.2% growth forecast for both 2026 and 2027, right in line with consensus, thanks to a resilient labor market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research