U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 At last week Monday’s close, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was not bearish at all, and the S&P 500 followed through on Tuesday, closing up 0.89%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether…
S&P 500 Average Monthly Returns Since 1964 S&P 500 seasonality shows August is rarely a sweet spot for stocks, as volatility tends to pick up and returns often lag. Image: Real Investment Advice
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment At 38 on the Fear & Greed Index, the market is in fear but not panic mode, which keeps the door open for a slow grind higher in U.S. stocks if news flow improves. Image: Cable News Network
Valuation Percentile – Shiller P/E and U.S. 10-Year Yield U.S. equities are trading at stretched valuation percentiles on the Shiller P/E, while the 10‑year Treasury yield sits close to its long‑term average. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns Since 1950, the first half of August has often been a drag on the S&P 500, ranking as the fifth-weakest half‑month of the year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
SpaceX and Median of 20 Largest IPOs on Nasdaq Wall Street’s old joke that IPO stands for “It’s Probably Overpriced” feels a little less funny now, but not entirely wrong. SpaceX is lagging most other large IPOs. A great business isn’t automatically a great buy. Image: Bloomberg
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.54%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to…
AAII Sentiment Survey U.S. retail investors are still on guard. The AAII bull-bear spread has ticked higher, but it remains in negative territory, a setup that has often preceded attractive entry points. Image: The Daily Chartbook
Real U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Y/Y Growth In recent quarters, U.S. consumers have continued to reallocate spending toward experience‑driven categories like travel, dining and recreation, even as overall services spending growth has cooled. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs sees the U.S. economy holding steady, with growth of 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, in line with consensus, as the labor market continues to show resilience. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment The NAAIM Exposure Index at 79.70 shows that active managers are still risk-on, with robust U.S. equity exposure and a bullish outlook. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by NAAIM members. Image: NAAIM