U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 At the close Monday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was neutral, and the S&P 500 followed through on Tuesday, closing up just 0.21%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock…
Foreign Holdings of U.S. Treasury Securities U.S. Treasuries continue to draw strong foreign demand. Holdings rose to a record $9.37 trillion in May, but the buying power has passed from foreign central banks to private balance sheets. That marks a structural shift. Image: Real Investment Advice
Consensus EPS Growth Estimates Wall Street sees a strong earnings tailwind ahead, with S&P 500 profits forecast to rise 28% in 2026 and 14% in 2027. Small caps could outperform, with earnings growth of 38% this year and 43% next year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equity Positioning At the 36th percentile, overall equity positioning sits just below neutral and well short of crowded, while large-cap tech at the 56th percentile is near neutral after easing from more elevated levels. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Sector Fund Flows Tech funds enjoyed strong inflows over the past year, driven by AI hype, but those flows are reversing as investors reassess valuations, rates and market risk. The tech story isn’t over; it’s just a crowded trade losing momentum. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 13.6%, leaving the expansion narrative in place. This cycle still has room to run. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed raised its Q3 2026 U.S. GDP nowcast slightly to 2.62% from 2.60%, keeping the growth outlook on track. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Click the Image to Enlarge
Equities Allocation by G10 and U.S. Investors Across the G10, equity exposure in household, pension, and insurance portfolios has moved up significantly, nearing record highs. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Change in S&P 500 Quarterly Earnings Consensus Unlike the usual pattern of downward revisions during the season, S&P 500 earnings estimates turned out to be too conservative. Third-quarter numbers are now moving higher, a positive sign for earnings momentum. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Magnificent Seven 12-Month Forward P/E Valuations for the Magnificent Seven have come down meaningfully from their peak and now sit near the lower end of the past seven years. They’re still not a bargain, but the risk‑reward looks much more balanced. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Equity Risk Indicator The U.S. Equity Risk Indicator is at a level that has historically pointed to weakness over the short to intermediate term. But markets can stay stretched far longer than logic suggests, then break down much faster than anyone expects. Image: BCA Research