Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index With a Market Greed/Fear Index reading of 70.25, U.S. stock market sentiment is clearly in the “greed” zone, reflecting investor confidence and optimism. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Index Quarterly Returns Based on the Four-Year Presidential Cycle In post-election years, Q1 tends to be weak. Q2 often shows stronger performance, while Q3 usually experiences some weakness. As the saying goes, “History doesn’t repeat itself, but it often rhymes.” Image: Carson Investment Research
Insider Transactions Ratio A sense of caution prevails among corporate insiders as the Insider Transactions Ratio remains in bearish territory. Image: Barron’s
Consolidated Equity Positioning Consolidated equity positioning is recovering but remains below February levels and continues to be underweight at the 30th percentile, reflecting a cautious environment. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Bottom-Up Consensus S&P 500 EPS Estimates Bottom-up consensus estimates show S&P 500 EPS growth slowing to 4% year-over-year in Q2 2025, highlighting a cautious earnings environment amid ongoing revisions and sector challenges. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Index The S&P 500 sank earlier in the year due to AI concerns and tariff fears but rebounded impressively to reach record levels, as tariff fears abated, earnings remained strong, and geopolitical risks eased. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Buybacks S&P 500 companies continue robust buybacks at record levels in 2025, demonstrating strong capital deployment, with repurchases projected to exceed $1 trillion this year. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History Valuation metrics indicate that certain S&P 500 sectors remain persistently overvalued compared to both their historical averages and other sectors. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns Since 1950, the first half of July has consistently been a seasonally strong period for the S&P 500, making it the best half-month of the year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Target Goldman Sachs forecasts the S&P 500 to reach 6,100 by year-end and 6,500 within the next year, based on stronger economic growth, improved earnings prospects, and reduced risks related to trade tensions and recession. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock market tendency is bullish, bearish or neutral. It is a contrarian indicator. A bullish signal suggests that the U.S. stock market may go up, while a bearish signal…