U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Friday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing up 0.37%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock…
The IPO Fade – % Change from Day-One Peak by Cohort Buying into the SpaceX IPO is a bet on hype as much as fundamentals, and history points to a volatile debut. Early investors should be ready for swings and keep dry powder until the first results bring clarity. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Performance After Day 100 Is Up >9% YTD Momentum, once built, rarely fades quickly. When the S&P 500 is up more than 9% by day 100, the rest of the year has historically delivered a median gain of 11.1% since 1950, keeping bulls smiling. Image: Carson Investment Research
Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 June is often a tricky month for U.S. stocks in midterm years, with a track record of softer returns and choppier swings. Image: Topdown Charts
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales slightly in April to 398K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy as a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield vs. Brent Oil Future Markets have treated oil and yields as a pair trade since the Middle East conflict began. Hopes of a peace deal could keep the oil-driven move in yields alive for now, but that relationship usually fades once the conflict is resolved. Image: Deutsche Bank
AAII Sentiment Survey The S&P 500 hit a new all-time high, but U.S. retail investors are still leaning bearish, with the AAII bull-bear spread stuck in negative territory for a second straight week. That skepticism could keep the rally going. Image: The Daily Chartbook
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment Active managers are all-in, with the NAAIM Exposure Index at 98.39 pointing to strong conviction in U.S. equities. For now, momentum remains with the bulls. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by NAAIM members. Image: NAAIM
S&P 500 Technical Composite A composite of technical breadth indicators shows the S&P 500 is approaching overbought levels, increasing the odds of a near-term consolidation. Given the recent momentum, a pause wouldn’t be surprising. Image: MarketDesk Research
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Markets are tilting toward a softer growth outlook. The gap between cyclicals and defensives now signals U.S. real GDP growth below 1.5%, well under Goldman Sachs’ 2.0% forward 4Q GDP growth forecast. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Semiconductors vs. Consensus Fwd 12m EPS Semiconductor stocks have rallied faster than analysts have raised near-term earnings estimates, leaving valuations stretched relative to short-term fundamentals. The easy upside appears largely exhausted. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research