U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Tuesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 1.18%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the…
S&P 500 Index and Technical Score At 79.77, the S&P 500 is flashing overbought conditions. After sentiment bottomed out in March, the rebound has been sharp. A pause or some consolidation would be healthy. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Bull Markets Over the past 50 years, the average U.S. bull market has run for eight years and delivered a 288% gain. At just 3.5 years old and up roughly 100%, this rally still appears to have room to run, leaving the bears increasingly frustrated. Image: Carson Investment Research
Insider Transactions Ratio Corporate insiders are returning to the buy side, pushing the Insider Transactions Ratio into bullish territory and boosting sentiment in U.S. stocks. Historically, renewed insider buying has pointed to a more supportive market backdrop. Image: Barron’s
Consensus EPS Growth Estimates Middle East tensions have done little to dent Wall Street’s mood. Analysts see S&P 500 earnings rising 18% in 2026 and 17% in 2027, while small-cap profits are expected to surge 44% this year and a further 32% next. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
MSCI World Sector/Style Valuations Valuations across many sectors and styles remain elevated, leaving investors little room for complacency. That’s what makes this market so tricky: there’s barely any cushion if sentiment turns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Different Market Sentiment Indicators Risk appetite continues to improve amid steady global equity inflows, but sentiment is still measured and nowhere near euphoric. Markets are warming, not roaring. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies sit in the 46th percentile, while discretionary investor positioning is at the 57th percentile, keeping the door open to add exposure. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Performance of S&P 500 Megacap Growth Stocks vs. Rest of S&P 500 Mega-cap growth and tech stocks are pushing higher from the bottom of their longer-term trend channel against the S&P 500, with momentum still firmly in place. It is tough to fade tech when it is trading like this. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year The market is pricing in just a 13% chance of a U.S. recession over the next year, while Goldman Sachs sees it closer to 30%. Is the market too complacent? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market Breadth – Percent Below 52-Week High S&P 500 Index Less Median Stock Market breadth across the S&P 500 faded during the latest rally, raising doubts about how much real strength sits behind the index. That’s not the kind of setup bulls like to see. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research