U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Two Wednesdays ago, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was neutral well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 barely moved, closing up just 0.02%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the…
U.S. Equity Issuance Surge in U.S. equity issuance has a habit of picking up near tops or as the cycle begins to turn. It is more a yellow flag than a call to exit. For now, strength in large-cap earnings and narrow leadership continue to provide support. Image: Real Investment Advice
GS Financial Conditions Index As markets climb, confidence is following suit, supported by looser U.S. financial conditions that are lifting both consumer spending and business investment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total The market used to track reality. Now it magnifies it. Ten mega caps make up 40% of the S&P 500 and 36% of its earnings, pushing valuations higher and intensifying every swing. It feels great on the way up.…
S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History S&P 500 Financials still trade at relatively modest valuations compared with other sectors, while Industrials are starting to look priced for perfection. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance Risk appetite among U.S. equity fund managers remains positive but has cooled, with many bracing for a June pullback and only modest gains through year-end as concerns over higher interest rates and recession risks build. Image: S&P Global Market Intelligence
Real Estate Positioning Real estate positioning has reached the 96th percentile, firmly in crowded territory and heavily overweight, leaving the trade vulnerable if tailwinds weaken. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Cumulative Flows to Cryptocurrency Funds Crypto funds have seen steady outflows over the past month, led by heavy selling in Bitcoin vehicles as investors pull back from the sector. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Earnings Sentiment – S&P 500, STOXX 600, Topix, MSCI EM, MSCI World Analysts’ enthusiasm for S&P 500 earnings has eased slightly in recent weeks, but expectations still sit at relatively high levels as confidence in the full-year outlook persists. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Financials Group Positioning Positioning in financials is still very light, sitting in the 17th percentile and leaving ample room to add risk. Given the strength in fundamentals, that caution appears misplaced. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Risk Appetite Indicator Level and Momentum Factors Goldman Sachs’s Risk Appetite Indicator has softened slightly, but still sits near stretched territory. Historically, such high levels can persist without immediately turning bearish. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research