U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Tuesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 1.18%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S.…
S&P 500 Median Forward Returns After 5+ Consecutive Weekly Declines Following five weeks of losses, the market’s rally fit the usual playbook. Dating back to 1965, periods like this have preceded a median 12.3% gain in the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Four-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm election years tend to shake up U.S. markets, as policy risks and political noise rise before voters hit the polls. Uncertainty is the one asset every portfolio gets stuck with, and election season always adds more to the mix. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Around Geopolitical Events Since 1939 The market is replaying its old tune on geopolitical shocks: selling hard on headlines, buying back soon after. History doesn’t repeat, but it sure rhymes. Market psychology never really changes. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index vs. U.S. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) The U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index tends to move ahead of U.S. CPI inflation by about three months, making it a useful guide to where consumer prices are headed. Image: Deutsche Bank
Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance After March’s flight to safety, April has seen U.S. equity fund managers tiptoe back into risk. But sentiment remains cautious, with market appetite still muted as the Middle East conflict keeps investors on edge. Image: S&P Global Market Intelligence
Sectors Positioning (High Frequency) Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech remains underweight, and even more so in cyclicals, sitting at the 7th percentile. A hint of good news could see investors swing sharply the other way. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed trimmed its Q2 2026 U.S. GDP Nowcast to 2.60% from 2.82% a week earlier, a minor cut that keeps the steady‑growth narrative intact. The outlook, for now, still looks unchanged. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Click the Image to Enlarge
Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns The conflict in the Middle East has added a layer of uncertainty, but U.S. stocks tend to find traction in the back half of April. That seasonal boost helps, but it doesn’t fully blunt the shock of the conflict. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Mega-Cap Growth & Tech (Market Cap and Earnings) The tech pullback has left a bigger disconnect from earnings expectations. Once the mood shifts, risk appetite could roar back and drive stocks sharply higher. Fundamentals haven’t changed much, just the mood. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Dollar Index The U.S. dollar index slipping back below its 200-day moving average gives bears more reason to cheer, as the recent rebound loses momentum and the broader downtrend reasserts itself. Image: The Daily Shot