U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 A week ago Tuesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing up 0.21%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the…
Real S&P 500 Index The current cycle still feels unfinished. Markets often give back a big chunk of their gains after a strong rise, with corrections typically revisiting levels near previous peaks. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Returns When New Highs Are Made In October A slow start to November may not tell the whole story. When the S&P 500 hits a new high in October, history leans bullish, with the index averaging 3.5% over November and December and finishing higher nearly nine times out of ten. Image: Carson Investment…
Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2025 Early November weakness hasn’t derailed the bulls. Seasonal tailwinds, strong earnings, and steady inflows are lining up behind a potential year-end rally in the S&P 500. Image: Ned Davis Research
Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index declined 2.1% in October. Trucks represent 72.7% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows that, historically, the U.S. stock market has tended to increase in line with the physical size and expansion of the U.S. economy (R²…
Valuation – S&P 500 NTM P/E With a forward P/E of 17 versus 23 for the benchmark, the equal-weight index tells the real story: most U.S. stocks are stalling, while a handful of giants are pulling the market higher and hide broader weakness. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sectors Positioning (High Frequency) Mega-cap growth and tech stocks remain in the spotlight, with positioning still elevated versus other sectors. Some investors are trimming exposure on valuation concerns, but the growth story remains intact. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Consensus Capex Growth Estimates Heading into 2026, hyperscale AI players face the prospect of a sharp pullback in capital spending, likely putting fresh strain on valuations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Margin Debt to U.S. Market Cap While margin debt has been rising, its share of total U.S. market value still sits at manageable levels. That keeps leverage risks in check and suggests investors could take on more borrowing if equities keep their momentum. Image: Bloomberg
Citi U.S. Earnings Revision Index and S&P 500 Index The S&P 500’s bull market remains firmly in place, with upside potential into 2026 fueled by earnings upgrades and upbeat corporate guidance. Image: Bloomberg
Amount of Fed Rate Cuts Priced by End of Year Markets remain divided over a December rate cut, with upcoming jobs and inflation reports set to shape expectations. The Fed may ease again if the economy softens, but another move this year is looking less likely. Image: Bloomberg