U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Friday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing up 0.54%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock…
ISM Composite Index vs. Recessions The economically weighted ISM composite paints a picture of moderation. Growth has cooled, not cracked. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Returns After Down >15% YTD and Comes Back to Up Double Digits Momentum favors the bulls. Each time the S&P 500 has dropped more than 15% but roared back to finish the year with double-digit gains, the next year has also kept the rally alive with double-digit returns, without a miss since 1950.…
The Largest Cumulative Losses Before Young/Start-Up Companies Turned a Profit As OpenAI’s revenue rises, the question looms: can it reach profitability by 2029 while spending so heavily to fuel the AI race? Image: Deutsche Bank
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment With the Fear & Greed Index at 39, sentiment is edging back toward neutral, signaling a return of market confidence. Image: Cable News Network
U.S. Valuations: PE10 Ratio The PE10 ratio points to U.S. mid- and small-cap stocks as a valuation sweet spot and potentially poised for better future returns than large caps. Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 and Equity ETF Flows ETF equity inflows aren’t necessarily a sell signal for the S&P 500 right now, but they spotlight a market chasing risk. With stocks and flows climbing fast together, sentiment could face a tougher stretch in 2026. Image: Strategas Asset Management
EPS – GS Top-Down vs. Consensus Bottom-Up Estimates A 14% consensus forecast for S&P 500 earnings growth next year may be in reach, but some market watchers warn it’s still too rosy. Goldman Sachs is keeping expectations lower, projecting a 7% rise for 2026. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Hyperscaler Capex Heading into 2026, hyperscalers are projected to experience a deceleration in capex growth that could weigh further on valuations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Treasury Index – Annual Return U.S. Treasuries are on track for their strongest annual performance since 2020, lifted by Fed rate cuts and a cooling labor market that is fueling bets on more monetary easing. Image: Bloomberg
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment At 98.57, the NAAIM Exposure Index shows active managers are all-in on U.S. equities, with market confidence clearly back on the rise. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by NAAIM members. Image: NAAIM