U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Thursday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 0.77%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the…
Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index The Greed and Fear Index sits at 68.73. Investor positioning has pulled back from extreme greed, but speculative positioning remains elevated. That leaves markets more vulnerable to a reversal. Image: Real Investment Advice
Pullbacks and Returns a Year Off the Lows for the S&P 500 Index Based on the 4-Year Presidential Cycle Since 1950, midterm years have been the sharpest swoon of the presidential cycle, with the S&P 500 falling 17.5% on average. The flip side is striking: one year after the low, stocks have been consistently higher,…
U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History Risk appetite is running high. The Nasdaq 100 now trades at 27 times forward earnings, the Russell 2000 at 26, and the S&P 500 at 21. The market is still positioned for further gains. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning At 0.8, Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator sits below stretched territory. Historically, readings at this level have been followed by an average 1.1% gain in the S&P 500 over the following month. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Risk Sentiment Indicator U.S. equities have surged, but risk sentiment stays neutral, leaving room for the rally to run as many investors stay on the sidelines. Image: TS Lombard
GS Risk Appetite Indicator and U.S. Equity Momemtum 1-Year Z-Score When risk appetite and momentum run too hot, like today, future equity returns typically fade under the weight of easy optimism. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Trend Channel The S&P 500 has clawed its way back to the lower edge of the uptrend in place since October 2022. If buyers hold the line here, the index could start grinding higher along that support. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Cumulative YTD Change in Consensus 2027 EPS Estimates AI infrastructure and energy are carrying the bulk of S&P 500 EPS revisions, while the rest of the market is barely moving. Strip those sectors out and 2027 estimates are flat year to date. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equity Positioning At the 70th percentile, equity positioning is modestly overweight, with positioning far more stretched in large caps and most notably in Tech. The big tech trade is getting crowded. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Price Target for 2026 On the back of strong EPS expectations, Goldman Sachs maintains its bullish outlook, calling for a 12% climb to 7,600 in the S&P 500 this year, with a few bumps along the way. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research