U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Thursday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 1.75%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the…
Margin Debt as Percentage of M2 (Measure of Leverage) Leverage amplifies gains in rising markets but reveals fragility when sentiment turns. Margin debt relative to the money supply is running hot, echoing levels last seen during the dot-com boom. Image: Real Investment Advice
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Returns in June Historically, the back half of June has a habit of disappointing equity bulls, with U.S. stocks frequently posting losses. Is this year set to defy that trend? Image: Carson Investment Research
GS Financial Conditions Index With markets advancing, confidence is firming, supported by looser U.S. financial conditions that are feeding through to stronger consumer spending and business investment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance Under New Fed Leadership Since 1930 New Fed leadership rarely drives the market narrative. It tends to follow the momentum already in place across the economy. Transitions, however, can change the intensity of the market’s response to incoming data and policy signals. Image: Deutsche Bank
Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total What once mirrored the market now drives it. Ten mega caps account for 39% of the S&P 500 and 35% of its earnings, lifting valuations and magnifying volatility. The rally feels smooth. The downside does not. Image: Goldman Sachs…
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -0.92% YoY in May. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…
Median Stock Return on Equity vs. P/E Valuation Profitability gaps go a long way in explaining why equity indices trade at different valuations. Companies that generate higher returns on equity typically earn richer multiples. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Cumulative Equity Flows U.S. and international equity inflows have remained robust over the past year and have accelerated in recent months, pointing to a supportive environment for further market upside. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History S&P 500 Financials continue to trade at relatively modest valuations compared with other sectors, while Industrials already price in a fair degree of optimism. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs expects the U.S. economy to hold steady, projecting 2.1% growth in both 2026 and 2027 as a resilient labor market keeps the expansion on track. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research