U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Friday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 1.20%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the…
S&P 500 Forward Earnings Estimates The 2026 earnings outlook is gaining momentum, with consensus full-year growth at 18% and the S&P 500 bottom-up target climbing to around 7,350. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Performance During Trump Years The S&P 500 under President Trump has tended to struggle early in the year, typically bottoming in late March. If history rhymes, the rest of 2026 may favor upside, even with a new Fed chair and midterm elections stirring volatility. Image: Carson Investment Research
Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown / Rally The rally has made U.S. equities a tougher trade. Upside now looks constrained, while the risk of a pullback is growing amid stretched valuations and a weakening macro backdrop. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Index Performance in Year +1 After Three Consecutive >=+20% Gains Following a powerful two-year run, the S&P 500 could bottom in the fall as markets test the new Fed chair, before pushing toward 7,700 by year-end as fundamentals improve. Image: Fundstrat
U.S. Equity Valuation Metrics (Z-Score Since 1900) After the recent surge, U.S. stocks are firmly out of bargain territory. Most valuation gauges are stretched, sitting more than two standard deviations above historical norms. “Cheap” is not part of the current narrative. Image: The Daily Shot
AAII Sentiment Survey Market highs are easing skepticism, with the AAII survey showing a strong surge in bullish sentiment. U.S. retail investors are turning optimistic again, pushing the bull-bear spread back into positive territory. Image: The Daily Chartbook
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment At 94.15, the NAAIM Exposure Index signals aggressive bullish positioning among active managers, reflecting rising conviction in the U.S. equity outlook. For now, momentum remains firmly on the bulls’ side. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by…
S&P 500 Technical Composite A composite of technical breadth measures points to an overheated S&P 500, increasing the likelihood of a short-term pullback as much of the recent optimism is already priced in. Some cooling could be healthy here. Image: MarketDesk Research
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Markets are tilting toward a steady growth outlook. Relative returns between cyclical and defensive stocks imply about 1.9% U.S. real GDP growth, broadly in line with Goldman Sachs’ forward 4Q GDP growth forecast. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bitcoin and Software Bitcoin has moved largely in step with software stocks in recent years, echoing broader swings in risk appetite and investor sentiment. That correlation is coming back into focus as speculative momentum builds. Image: Topdown Charts