U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Thursday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 0.77%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S.…
2026 S&P 500 EPS Revisions Analysts typically cut S&P 500 EPS forecasts as the fiscal year unfolds. This year is different. Estimates are moving higher, lifted by AI enthusiasm and reinforced by confident guidance. The playbook is shifting. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Performance During Trump Years Under President Trump, the S&P 500 has often seen early-year weakness, with lows clustering in late March. If the pattern repeats, 2026 could keep climbing, despite a new Fed chair and midterm-driven volatility. Image: Carson Investment Research
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment With the Fear & Greed Index at 66, market participants are growing more comfortable taking risks. This is not euphoria yet, but confidence is holding up. Image: Cable News Network
Equity Positioning and Earnings Growth Positioning in equities continues to lag S&P 500 earnings growth, leaving scope for the rally to run if revisions hold up and macro risks remain contained. That dynamic could pull more capital into equities. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Valuation – S&P 500 NTM P/E At 16 times forward earnings compared with 21 for the benchmark, the equal-weight index is hardly a bargain, but it looks more attractive on a relative basis. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
AAII Sentiment Survey The AAII bull-bear spread is close to neutral as both bullish and bearish responses picked up over the past week. U.S. retail investors are not showing signs of euphoria, which argues against a late-stage mania. Image: The Daily Chartbook
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment At 77.34, the latest reading shows that active managers are taking their foot off the accelerator in U.S. equities, pointing to a cooler but still confident market mood. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by NAAIM members.…
S&P 500 Technical Composite Under the hood, a composite of technical breadth measures shows the S&P 500 running hot, pointing to limited near-term upside and a growing risk of a pullback. Image: MarketDesk Research
Retail Share of Trading Volumes in Select U.S. Equity Index ETF Since 2021 Retail traders are piling into leveraged U.S. equity index ETFs, hardly a surprise given their long-standing appetite for leverage. The trade looks smart in the moment, until it doesn’t. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Markets are pricing in a steady growth path. Relative performance between cyclical and defensive sectors points to roughly 1.7% U.S. real GDP growth, broadly in line with consensus forecasts. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research