U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Two Thursdays ago, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 1.08%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether…
S&P 500 Average Monthly Returns Since 1964 July has historically treated U.S. equities well, delivering average gains of 0.8% since 1964. If seasonality plays out again, bulls may have room to run through the summer before September, a month that has tended to disappoint. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Performance During Trump Years July has been a strong month for U.S. stocks under the Trump presidency, rising every year with an average gain of about 2.9%, enough to keep bulls smiling. Image: Carson Investment Research
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index U.S. manufacturing lost some steam in June, with the ISM Manufacturing Index slipping to 53.3, missing expectations of 54, but still marking a sixth straight month of expansion. Under the surface, momentum remains intact. The chart shows the correlation between the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and the S&P…
S&P 500 Consensus Earnings Growth Expectations Analysts have rarely been this bullish on S&P 500 earnings heading into Q2 2026, a level typically seen only after recessions or at the start of a new cycle. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total What used to track the market now moves it. Ten mega caps now account 37% of the S&P 500 and 36% of its earnings, pushing valuations higher and amplifying volatility. The upside feels smooth. The drop rarely is. Image:…
Gross Proceeds from U.S. IPOs At midyear, 2026 has already matched 2021’s full-year record, with roughly $120 billion raised in U.S. IPOs. The window is wide open, but keeping that momentum through year-end will not be easy. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Financials Group Positioning Positioning in financials remains deeply underweight at the 6th percentile, leaving plenty of room to add risk. Given solid fundamentals, the caution feels increasingly unjustified. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Global Monetary Policy Stimulus and Global Manufacturing PMI The rebound in global growth has been the central macro story of 2026. But the tone is shifting, as firmer inflation brings rate hikes back into the conversation. Leading indicators now point to a different backdrop for 2027. Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History S&P 500 Financials are still trading at relatively modest valuations versus other sectors, while Industrials appear to have already priced in a healthy dose of optimism. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consensus Forward 12-Month S&P 500 EPS Positive earnings revisions have driven the S&P 500 higher this year, with gains coming without any lift in the forward P/E, reinforcing confidence. Earnings continue to do the heavy lifting. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research