U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Two Wednesdays, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 1.46%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the…
Valuation – The Buffett Indicator The Buffett Indicator, which compares U.S. market capitalization to GDP, hit a fresh high. It’s not a crash signal, but it raises a flag. At these levels, history suggests weaker long-term returns and a thinner margin of safety Image: Real Investment Advice
Performance of S&P 500 Megacap Growth Stocks vs. Rest of S&P 500 Mega-cap growth and tech stocks are once again testing the top of their decade-long channel versus the rest of the S&P 500. A continued push higher would start to look stretched. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Implied Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown The rally has made U.S. equities harder to chase. Upside looks limited, while the risk of a pullback is building as valuations stretch. The risk-reward now looks less compelling. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
MSCI U.S. vs. G10 Excess Liquidity Leading Indicator G10 excess liquidity is rolling over again, and while not yet negative, it is already pointing to a tougher backdrop for U.S. equities in the months ahead. When liquidity fades, equity markets rarely stay smooth for long. Image: Bloomberg
Median Annual S&P 500 Total Return Based on Nominal 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield There is no fixed relationship between bond yields and equity returns. Their correlation changes over time, driven by inflation dynamics, rate expectations, and shifts in credit risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Net Margin Debt U.S. margin debt is hovering near record highs. That level of borrowing reflects strong risk appetite, but it also leaves the market more exposed to sharp pullbacks if stocks slide and leveraged investors rush to cut positions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
CTAs Exposure to Bonds CTAs’ overall allocation to bonds sits in the 8th percentile, indicating little appetite for rates risk. Fixed income is simply not where they want exposure right now. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession U.S. real retail sales stand at 1.05% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, U.S. real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.
Cyclical Minus Defensive Sectors Positioning At the 52nd percentile, sector positioning shows a market in balance, with no meaningful shift toward either cyclicals or defensives, pointing to a lack of strong conviction. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Market Breadth – Percent Below 52-Week High S&P 500 Index Less Median Stock Gains look good on paper, but the internals tell a different story. Record highs in the S&P 500 are masking a sharp deterioration in market breadth. A durable rally will need more stocks and sectors pulling their weight. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…