U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Two weeks ago Thursday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 1.06%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests…
S&P 500 Index and Technical Score At 68.63, the S&P 500 remains slightly overbought. Bulls are still in control and the trend stays healthy, but expect the next leg higher to be choppy, not smooth. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Performance on the Day of the FOMC Meeting U.S. stocks have struggled on FOMC days this year. Can this week break the pattern? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies continue to lean bullish, sitting in the 86th percentile and firmly overweight. Discretionary investors, by contrast, are underweight again at the 34th percentile, with ample room to add risk. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Insider Transactions Ratio Corporate insiders are buying again, pushing the Insider Transactions Ratio into bullish territory and adding fuel to the bull case. Image: Barron’s
Bond Positioning Bond positioning has sunk to the 5th percentile. If history rhymes, yields are near a short-term peak. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
MSCI AC World EPS The Street keeps raising MSCI AC World EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027, betting that AI can lift margins without triggering a capex blowout. So if there is a bubble, is it in earnings or in the narrative? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 Fwd 12-Month P/E Multiple vs. EPS Yield Gap vs. Real 10-Year U.S. Treasury So far in 2026, U.S. equities have digested higher rates mostly through multiple compression, leaving the valuation gap to bonds largely intact. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S.-Listed ETF Cumulative Flows by Year Investors have poured more than $1.4 trillion into U.S.-listed ETFs so far this year, a record for inflows at this point in the calendar. If the momentum persists, model-based projections point to a full-year total near $2.3 trillion. Image: Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities
Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns The S&P 500’s worst half-month since 1950? That’s the second half of September. So are traders betting history won’t repeat? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Foreign Holding of U.S. Financial Assets: Allocation to Equities Foreign investors are unusually crowded into U.S. stocks. What would happen if they all rushed for the exits? Image: Topdown Charts