U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Thursday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 1.75%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S.…
S&P 500 Peak-To-Trough Decline After Major Issuance Booms Major U.S. equity issuance booms tend to follow late-cycle optimism. On its own, that is more a caution flag than a sell signal. It carries more weight when it appears alongside other late-cycle cracks. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Price Target for 2026 The ride may stay bumpy, but Goldman Sachs expects steady earnings growth to drive the S&P 500 index up 17% to 8,000 in 2026. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment At 30 on the Fear & Greed Index, caution dominates. Market participants are uneasy, but panic has yet to set in. Image: Cable News Network
U.S. Equity Valuation Metrics (Z-Score Since 1900) Valuations in U.S. equities remain extended, with most metrics running over two standard deviations above history. “Cheap” is largely a thing of the past, but stretched markets can defy gravity for longer than expected. Image: The Daily Shot
S&P 500 vs. G10 Excess Liquidity Leading Indicator The decline in G10 excess liquidity into negative territory signals a tougher road ahead for U.S. stocks over the next six months. When liquidity dries up, equities tend to feel the strain. Image: Bloomberg
AAII Sentiment Survey Even with the S&P 500 near record highs, U.S. retail investors are staying cautious. The AAII bull-bear spread is stuck in negative territory for the fourth consecutive week. That hesitation can be a tailwind for the market. Image: The Daily Chartbook
S&P 500 Index and Trend Channels What we are seeing in U.S. stocks looks more like consolidation than the start of a lasting downturn, with investors digesting recent gains and adjusting their outlook. Image: J.P. Morgan
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment At 79.27, the latest reading shows that active managers have eased back on U.S. equity optimism, pointing to a cooler but still confident market mood, neither overheated nor subdued. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by NAAIM…
S&P 500 Technical Composite A composite of technical breadth indicators shows the S&P 500 is approaching oversold levels, increasing the odds of a short-term rebound. Attention now turns to whether buyers take control. Image: MarketDesk Research
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Markets are leaning toward a steady growth outlook. The gap between cyclicals and defensives points to U.S. real GDP growth of about 1.8%, broadly in line with Goldman Sachs’ 1.9% forward 4Q GDP growth forecast. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research