U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Friday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing up 0.69%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock market…
Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index The Greed and Fear Index sits at 73.68, with retail investors still heavily invested in the market. That could make trading messy and positions one-sided. Image: Real Investment Advice
Distribution of S&P 500 Annual Returns Since 1928, the S&P 500 has finished a calendar year more than 10% lower only 12 times. Such drops are rare, but they’re part of the cost of staying in the market. History favors those who stay the course. Image: Carson Investment Research
Consolidated Equity Positioning At the 44th percentile, consolidated equity positioning sits near neutral, leaving room for further upside if momentum strengthens. But as always, risk appetite rarely stays steady for long. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator sits at 0.4, right in neutral territory, a level that has often preceded a push higher in the S&P 500 over the following month. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History With the S&P 500 trading at 22 times forward earnings and the Nasdaq 100 at 26, U.S. stocks are no bargain. But investors seem happy to ride the rally as long as profits keep climbing. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Performance of S&P 500 Megacap Growth Stocks vs. Rest of S&P 500 Mega-cap growth and tech stocks are testing the bottom of their decade-long channel versus the rest of the S&P 500, a level that has often sparked rebounds, except during the 2022 bear market. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Volatility – VIX vs. VIXEQ Single-stock volatility is rising faster than the VIX as leadership rotates from tech toward energy names and companies tied to real assets. Volatility beneath the surface says more about market uncertainty than the VIX right now. Image: Bloomberg
Impact of Tariff Policies on the Effective Tariff Rate The Supreme Court’s ruling on the IEEPA tariffs barely moves the needle: the change only trims the effective tariff increase since early 2025, from just over 10pp to 9pp, leaving inflation and growth forecasts largely untouched. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Technical Composite A composite of technical breadth measures keeps the S&P 500 in neutral, with room for potential upside if momentum picks up. For now, that spark is still missing. Image: MarketDesk Research
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales slightly fell in January to 389K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy as a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge