U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Two weeks ago Thursday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 1.14%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests…
S&P 500 Monthly Performance in Midterm Election Years Since 1950, October has been the best month for midterm years, averaging a 3% gain and finishing higher 74% of the time. Is it time to be bullish? Bearish sentiment already dominates, setting up a potential year-end rally. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales fell in August to 413K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy as a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge
Valuations – 12-Month Forward P/E Ranges (MSCI Regions) U.S. and global stocks still look expensive, but earnings are growing fast enough to support those valuations. As long as profits keep beating expectations, the premium is the price of admission, not a reason to sell. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Volatility Divergence – VIX vs. MOVE Bond traders are more defensive on U.S. rates, while equity investors remain confident that stocks will stay relatively calm. That growing disconnect is not necessarily a bearish signal, but it is a warning worth monitoring. Image: The Daily Chartbook
Valuation – S&P 500 NTM P/E Trading at 15 times forward earnings versus 19 for the benchmark, the S&P 500 equal-weight index still isn’t a bargain, but the discount makes it look more attractive. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Semiconductor Gross Margins The S&P 500’s leading AI semiconductor companies have enjoyed a powerful expansion in gross margins during the last few years. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed trimmed its Q4 2026 U.S. GDP Nowcast to 2.59% from 2.60%, a light revision that leaves the broader growth trajectory untouched. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New YorkClick the Image to Enlarge
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.76%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to…
Market-Implied Long-Term S&P 500 Growth Expectations The market-implied long-term growth expectation for the S&P 500 is currently +10%, above the historical average but nothing like the dot-com bubble excess. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Estimated Contribution of Hyperscaler Capex to S&P 500 EPS Growth The earnings tailwind from AI capex is expected to fade over the coming years, even as spending keeps climbing. With capex growth slowing and depreciation climbing, the lift to profits will shrink. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research