U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Two Mondays ago, our Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing up 0.54%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S.…
Non-Financial Corporate Profits vs. 5-Year Average U.S. corporate profits have surged since the COVID-19 pandemic, far outpacing the real economy. Past cycles warn that such imbalances eventually correct when market sentiment shifts. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Yearly Returns The lesson from the “10 best days” rule is blunt: market timing rarely shows mercy. Miss those standout days in the S&P 500 each year and, instead of gains, your portfolio would have slipped roughly 15% a year since 1990! Image: Carson Investment Research
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment The S&P 500 trades not far from record highs, and with sentiment still cautious at 39 on the Fear & Greed Index, the door remains open for further upside if momentum improves. Image: Cable News Network
Valuations – MSCI Index Market Capitalization Relative to M2 U.S. market capitalization has rocketed since late 2022, pushing valuations to levels that M2 growth can’t justify on its own. There’s more at play now than just liquidity. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 16%. The odds still favor continued expansion rather than recession. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Volatility – VIX Index With the VIX above 20, volatility is still running high. That’s the kind of backdrop that usually pulls investors toward higher-quality stocks, as long as the selling doesn’t deepen. Image: MarketDesk Research
AAII Sentiment Survey U.S. retail investors grew more cautious over the past week, with the AAII bull-bear spread slipping into negative territory for the first time since Thanksgiving. That’s not surprising given the current uncertainty. Image: The Daily Chartbook
S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History Markets show few signs of fatigue as investors keep S&P 500 sector valuations stretched above historical norms, driven by steady optimism over earnings growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment At 82.87, the latest reading shows active managers are staying bullish on U.S. equities, confident but not euphoric. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by NAAIM members. Image: NAAIM
S&P 500 Price Target for 2026 Goldman Sachs is sticking to its call for a 12% gain in the S&P 500 this year, to 7,600, fueled by solid growth, firm earnings, and a productivity kicker from AI. Getting there, though, won’t be a straight line. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research