U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Tuesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing up 0.41%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock market…
S&P 500 Earnings & Estimates and Earnings Growth Trend Line S&P 500 earnings have significantly outpaced historical growth trends. If profits start to slip in the coming quarters, richly valued stocks could face a sharp reckoning. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Performance and Risk Appetite Indicator Good news for the bulls: Goldman Sachs’s Risk Appetite Indicator broke above 1.0 last week, a bullish signal that has historically lined up with roughly 15% median gains in the S&P 500 over the next 12 months. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Commodities vs. 50/50 S&P 500 and U.S. Treasuries Commodities remain undervalued relative to U.S. stocks and bonds, offering room for strategic allocations that enhance portfolio balance. Image: Bloomberg
Gold Prices in Real Terms Gold’s real price is sky-high right now. It’s a very different story from the dot-com boom, when investors piled into tech and gold fell out of favor almost overnight. Image: Deutsche Bank
Cumulative Gold Demand – Gold ETF vs. Central Banks Amid macro conditions, currency moves, and rising geopolitical tension, gold’s rally gathered pace in 2025 as central banks began competing with private investors for scarce bullion. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed nudged its Q1 2026 U.S. GDP Nowcast slightly lower to 2.73% from 2.75% a week earlier, keeping the steady expansion narrative alive. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Click the Image to Enlarge
Bond Volatility – MOVE Index Rate volatility in the U.S. continues to fade, with the MOVE index back to 2021 levels as investors double down on steady growth and a resilient labor market. Image: The Daily Shot
Market-Implied U.S. Recession Probability With the market pricing a 16% chance of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months, recession risk remains modest and broadly in line with a moderate-risk environment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equity Index Valuations vs. History The S&P SmallCap 600’s forward P/E of 16x looks attractive by historical standards, while the S&P 500’s 22x forward multiple, sitting in the 94th percentile, paints a very different picture on valuation. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In October, U.S. building permits declined to 1.411 million. Historically, building permits tend to peak and then decline prior to economic recessions Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis