U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Monday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing up 0.64%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock market…
Arithmetic Average Annual Real Return of S&P 500 over Different Periods Since 2009, S&P 500 investors enjoyed annualized real returns about 50% above the 1900+ historic average, fueled by low rates, QE, and post-crisis recovery. With those supports behind us, forward returns may revert toward historic norms. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Index Single Day Average Returns December 26 tends to put Wall Street in a good mood. Since 1950, it has been the S&P 500’s second-best day of the year, averaging a 0.49% gain, just behind October 28. Image: Carson Investment Research
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment At 58, the Fear & Greed Index points to a market edging into greed, far from extreme levels and lively enough to feed the rally. Image: Cable News Network
Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index rose 0.2% in November. Trucks represent 72.7% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows that, historically, the U.S. stock market has tended to increase in line with the physical size and expansion of the U.S. economy (R²…
Market Capitalization – The Smartphone Revolution The iPhone’s 2007 launch ignited a smartphone revolution that sent the market capitalizations of U.S. giants like Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta skyrocketing. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 Options: % of S&P 500 Listed Volume Expiring within 24 Hours The frenzy in S&P 500 options expiring within 24 hours shows no sign of cooling, now making up more than 62% of total volume and amplifying short-term volatility through fast-turn bets. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Spot Gold Gold has jumped 70% this year, set for its best run since 1979, lifted by central-bank demand, fresh ETF inflows, and hopes of Fed rate cuts ahead. Image: Bloomberg
Positions in S&P 500 Equity Futures by Asset Managers Equity positioning is far from stretched. Asset managers haven’t returned to their peak long bets in U.S. stock futures, and with resilient growth, easier policy, and firm earnings, the rally may have more room to run into 2026. Image: Bloomberg
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment At 95.08, the NAAIM Exposure Index points to active managers staying heavily invested in U.S. equities and keeping faith in market momentum The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by NAAIM members. Image: NAAIM
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth The relative performance of cyclical stocks versus defensives currently signals market expectations for real U.S. GDP growth of 2%, below Goldman Sachs’ 2.6% forecast for 2026. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research