U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Wednesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing up 0.54%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock…
U.S. Unemployment Rate and Recessions The unemployment rate moving above its three-year average has preceded every U.S. recession since 1950. The latest crossover came in June 2024. Since then, no recession has followed, raising questions if this time is different. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Returns After Down >15% YTD and Comes Back to Up Double Digits History favors the bulls. Every time the S&P 500 has dropped more than 15% in a year and then roared back with double‑digit gains, the next year also posted double‑digit returns, without exception since 1950. Image: Carson Investment Research
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment At 17 on the Fear & Greed Index, fear still runs high. Some traders are spooked, while others see an opportunity. Extreme worry has a way of planting the seeds for recovery. Image: Cable News Network
Average S&P 500 Performance After Oil Shocks On average, U.S. equities have tended to be under pressure in the months following major oil shocks, though the pattern is not uniform and depends heavily on whether the shock is large, persistent, and tied to broader macro stress. Image: Deutsche Bank
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 17.8%, keeping the outlook skewed toward ongoing expansion. The cycle isn’t done yet. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Cash Allocation by Non-Bank Investors Globally Non‑bank global investors are rotating out of stocks and bonds and into cash as the Middle East conflict‑related energy shock raises inflation fears and the risk of higher interest rates. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 CAPE Ratio vs. U.S. Households Holding of Equities % Total Financial Assets Americans are all-in on equities like never before. That speaks to booming wealth and bullish sentiment, but it also leaves portfolios more vulnerable to any valuation reset. The ride higher feels good, until it doesn’t. Image: Topdown Charts
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment With the NAAIM index at 68.52, active managers are keeping faith in U.S. stocks, maintaining a relatively high exposure to equities even as volatility tests their confidence. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by NAAIM members. Image:…
Share of Global Market Capitalization The U.S., with barely 4% of the world’s people, dominates 63% of global equity value. Its innovation engines continue to magnetize foreign money. Like it or not, global markets still move to America’s rhythm. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Technical Composite A composite of technical breadth measures continues to flag the S&P 500 as oversold, boosting the odds of a short-term rebound. Much of the bad news is already priced in. Image: MarketDesk Research