U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Two Tuesdays ago, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing up 0.25%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S.…
S&P 500 Index and Technical Score At 19.36, the S&P 500 looks stretched on the downside, and a reflexive rally could follow if market participants regain confidence. Sentiment feels pretty washed out, so a rebound wouldn’t surprise anyone. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Quarterly Returns Based on the Four-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm election years have a rough reputation. Q2 is usually the weakest quarter in the presidential cycle for U.S. stocks. With Q1 set to close deeply in the red, could this time be the exception? Image: Carson Investment Research
Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 April tends to smile on U.S. equities. Since 1964, the S&P 500 has averaged a 1.5% rise for the month. But this year’s Middle East conflict has clouded that sunny seasonal trend. Image: Topdown Charts
Insider Transactions Ratio Corporate insiders are still in buying mode, keeping the Insider Transactions Ratio in bullish territory and adding a dose of optimism to U.S. stocks. Investors often read renewed insider buying as a sign the worst may be behind. Image: Barron’s
Sectors Positioning (High Frequency) Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech remains underweight, and cyclicals even more so as growth concerns keep investors cautious. Any sign of good news, though, could send positioning swinging the other way. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E Multiple Since October, the S&P 500’s P/E has slipped from 23 to 19, showing investors have turned more cautious even as earnings hold steady. The mood has cooled, and risk is being repriced across the market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Different Market Sentiment Indicators Risk appetite is neutral, supported by steady global equity inflows. Investors have grown more cautious over the past month. This looks like prudence, not panic. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Nasdaq 100 to S&P 500 Valuation Spread The last time the Nasdaq 100 traded this cheap versus the S&P 500, it staged its biggest outperformance in a year. Honestly, that’s tough to ignore. Image: Bloomberg
Brent Crude Oil Futures Markets are betting the Middle East conflict won’t drag on, a view reflected in oil futures prices. The curve remains in backwardation, indicating tight near‑term supply but confidence that any disruption will prove short‑lived. Image: Alpine Macro
Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year Markets are pricing in just a 12% risk of a U.S. recession within a year, but Goldman Sachs remains more cautious, putting the likelihood at 30%. Are markets a bit too optimistic? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research