U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Thursday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 1.06%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S.…
S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio – Average Real Returns Over the Following 10 Years, by Starting CAPE With the CAPE ratio now above 40, the setup for the next decade looks grim. In past episodes at the current level, US equities went on to deliver negative real returns, averaging roughly −2.6% a year. Image: Real…
S&P 500 Index Performance After The First Fed Rate Hike Historically, the S&P 500 has weathered the Fed’s first rate hike better than investors might expect. Following an initial 25 bp move, the index often stumbles early but, in every cycle since 1990, has been higher a year later. Image: Carson Investment Research
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment The Fear & Greed Index is sitting at 35, putting the market firmly in fear territory but not at panic levels. That leaves room for U.S. stocks to edge higher if the headlines turn more supportive. Image: Cable News Network
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment After hitting a new +2-year high at 102.7 last week, the NAAIM Exposure Index fell sharply to 85.6. Even so, active managers remain heavily exposed to equities and firmly bullish on U.S. stocks. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index tracks the two-week average of U.S. equity exposure reported…
Survey – Where Do You Expect the S&P 500 Index to Be in the Next 12 Months? Half of BCA’s clients see the S&P 500 up 10% or more over the next year, backed by AI-fueled earnings, light corporate leverage and good-old FOMO. Just 13% brace for a double-digit drop. Image: BCA Research
Bond Volatility – MOVE Index Stocks remain sensitive to every move in yields, but falling rate volatility could clear a path higher for the S&P 500, even with interest rates still elevated. Image: The Daily Shot
U.S.-Listed Spot-Gold ETF Weekly Flows Gold ETFs are back in favor, with money flowing in again as retail demand firms, central banks keep buying, and the macro backdrop turns more supportive. Image: Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities
Largest Contributors to the YTD Change in NTM EPS for MSCI AC World Most of the Technology sector’s positive earnings revisions have come from its more cyclical areas, particularly semiconductors and related hardware. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Household Equity Ownership by Wealth Percentile Call it the American Dream or a widening divide. The top 1% now hold about half of U.S. market wealth. The bottom half? Just 1%. The gap has been widening since 1990, and frustration is rising with it. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bitcoin and Software Bitcoin has largely tracked software stocks in recent years. The reset earlier this year has turned into a rebound, and both have cleared near-term resistance to establish short-term uptrends.. Image: Topdown Charts