U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Monday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 1.48%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S.…
S&P 500 Index and Technical Score With a reading of 72.11, the S&P 500 is sitting in a middle ground, not overbought yet, not oversold, with bulls still in control. Image: Real Investment Advice
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns August and September have rarely been kind to U.S. stocks, posting some of the weakest average returns of the year. With July, normally a strong month, now barely negative, do the odds look different this time? Image: Carson Investment Research
Consolidated Equity Positioning Consolidated equity positioning is in the 37th percentile, just below neutral and nowhere near crowded, which leaves room for more upside. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index U.S. manufacturing picked up speed in July. The ISM Manufacturing Index climbed to 55.6, beating expectations of 54 and notching a seventh straight month of expansion. Momentum is building across the industrial sector. The chart shows the correlation between the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and the S&P 500…
Equity Net Long Positioning – Leveraged Funds and Asset Managers Net Future Positions Leveraged funds and asset managers have piled into long S&P 500 futures, pushing net exposure to a record. That screams risk appetite, but it also means there are fewer buyers left if sentiment flips. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuations – S&P 500 12-Month Fwd P/E Multiple – Top 5 Largest Stocks vs. Other 495 Stocks After nearly a decade of commanding sky-high multiples, the five largest U.S. stocks have lost their valuation premium, with average P/Es barely above the rest of the S&P 500. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Quarterly EPS Seasonally Adjusted S&P 500 earnings are running 14% above their nine-decade trend line. Any pullback toward the mean would make today’s rich valuations look fragile fast. Image: Deutsche Bank
Proportion of S&P 500 Beating Earnings Estimate There’s no sign of cracks in earnings momentum. Almost 88% of S&P 500 companies are beating earnings estimates, with the beat rate running well ahead of the 74% long-term average. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Consensus Forward 12-Month S&P 500 EPS Equal-weight S&P 500 prices and EPS have risen steadily together. Earnings are still doing the heavy lifting, but the gains are uneven and increasingly concentrated in a handful of companies and sectors. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Price Target for 2026 Goldman Sachs still sees steady earnings growth powering a 17% rise in the S&P 500 to 8,000 in 2026, even as volatility remains part of the landscape. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research