U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Wednesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing up 0.81%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock…
U.S. Yield Curves The yield curve’s normalization following its 2022 inversion eased recession worries for now, but historical patterns still suggest caution post-uninversion. Image: Real Investment Advice
Average Year for the S&P 500 the Past 20 Years Mid-March has often marked turning points for U.S. stocks over the past two decades, and from there, rallies tend to take shape. History may not repeat itself, but it often rhymes. Image: Carson Investment Research
WTI Crude Oil and Recessions When oil prices surge, sometimes doubling, it’s often a red flag for the U.S. economy. History shows these jumps tend to foreshadow recessions, making crude a key gauge for investors watching for signs of a slowdown. Image: Yahoo Finance
Price Performance of Gold Before and After the Start of Armed Conflicts When conflict breaks out in the Middle East, gold typically shines as a tactical safe haven, with prices jumping as traders add a geopolitical risk premium. Image: J.P. Morgan Commodities Research
Effect of a 10% Increase in Oil Prices on Inflation A 10% rise in crude oil prices would add modestly to headline inflation over the year. But if higher prices persist, the inflation effect would linger and growth would take a bigger hit. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global GS Financial Conditions Index Global financial conditions tightened by 14 basis points, which typically dampens spending and investment by households and firms, especially when triggered by geopolitical shocks like the current Middle East escalation. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed nudged its Q1 2026 US GDP Nowcast slightly higher to 2.38% from 2.37% a week earlier, keeping the steady-growth storyline in play. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Click the Image to Enlarge
EPS Revisions Upward EPS revisions across the S&P 500, Topix, and especially MSCI EM signal growing confidence in 2026 earnings. Momentum still leans toward strength rather than slowdown, though the STOXX 600 continues to lag behind. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns March has a long track record of lifting the S&P 500, often kicking off with a burst of momentum. But markets love to surprise us when everyone expects a rally. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Technical Composite A composite of technical breadth measures keeps the S&P 500 in neutral, though there’s still room for an upside break if momentum returns. For now, that spark just isn’t there. Image: MarketDesk Research