U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Wednesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 followed through, ending the day up 0.46%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the…
S&P 500 Index and Technical Score At 73.33, the S&P 500 is slightly overbought. Bulls remain in control and the technical picture is intact, but the path ahead is likely to be bumpy rather than smooth. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Around First Fed Rate Hikes vs. Speed of Hikes In fast tightening cycles, the S&P 500 typically struggles in the 12 months post-first hike; in slow or no cycles, it tends to rally. Near term, stocks stay shaky until investors believe in a “slow-hike” or “one-and-done” Fed. Image: Ned Davis Research
Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies are still leaning bullish, sitting in the 85th percentile and firmly overweight. Discretionary investors are more cautious, back to neutral at the 47th percentile, with room to add risk. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Forward P/E Ratio and Subsequent 5-Year Annualized Returns With U.S. equities still trading as if nothing can go wrong, the next five years are likely to deliver thinner returns. The businesses are outstanding, but price still matters. Overpay, and even the best stocks can disappoint. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at 1.46% YoY in August. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…
S&P 500 Performance in this Cycle Measured against prior four-year election cycles, the current bull market is unusually powerful: the S&P 500 is up nearly 100% since the end of 2022, the second-strongest performance in history after the early dot-com rally. Image: Bloomberg
Average S&P 500 Performance Midterm years typically bring a bumpy start to the second half for the S&P 500, with sellers gaining traction into October as summer ends. Post-election, the market has a habit of strengthening, regardless of who wins. Image: Deutsche Bank
MSCI World Index and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield When bond yields climb, equities often take a hit or simply lose momentum. The pattern is familiar: P/E multiples stall and money rotates out of long‑duration growth stocks, even though the rally isn’t dead. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Quarterly EPS Seasonally Adjusted S&P 500 earnings are running 14% above their nine‑decade trend. Can profits stay this far ahead of history? If they drift back toward the mean, today’s rich multiples could lose their support faster than investors think. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Dollar Net Positioning U.S. dollar positioning remains stretched. Historically, a softer greenback has typically lifted stocks and added fuel to equity rallies. Image: J.P. Morgan