U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 At the close two Wednesdays ago, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish, and the S&P 500 followed through on Thursday, closing up 0.81%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S.…
Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index Volatility picked up last week, but the Greed and Fear Index sits at 79.65, with positioning and sentiment running hot as professional investors turn more bullish. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 – Margin Debt Expansion vs. Contraction Margin debt is climbing into the danger zone that makes investors uneasy, edging deeper into levels last seen at major market tops. The bulls still run the show, but even a modest pullback could turn ugly fast. Image: Topdown Charts
Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning Goldman Sachs’ U.S. equity sentiment indicator stands at 0.9, a level that has historically been followed by an average 1.1% gain in the S&P 500 over the next month.. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equity Positioning At the 53rd percentile, overall equity positioning points to a modest overweight, while large‑cap tech at the 95th percentile leaves little room to add exposure. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History Risk appetite is still intact. The Russell 2000 trades at 26 times forward earnings, versus 25 for the Nasdaq 100 and 20 for the S&P 500. It is hardly cheap, but demand for equities is still alive. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies sit in the 79th percentile, firmly overweight, while discretionary investors are stuck at the 35th percentile with room left to add risk. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Performance – S&P 500 MCG & Tech Ratio to the Rest of the S&P 500 Mega‑cap growth and tech stocks have slipped from the top to the middle of their long‑term trend channel versus the rest of the S&P 500, more an unwind of crowded positioning than the birth of a new regime. Image: Deutsche…
Sector Fund Flows Despite the selloff, semiconductors have seen heavy inflows over the past few weeks. That looks more like dip buying than broad risk aversion. Will it last? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Long/Short Momentum Factor Returns Around 3-Month Rallies of 20%+ Momentum factor was a rough ride last week, with volatility now near its highest levels in decades outside a recession. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
MSCI ACWI 12-Month Forward EPS With global stocks priced for perfection and ACWI earnings expectations stretched, it looks prudent to take some risk off the table. Image: TS Lombard