U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 On Monday last week, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 1.48%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests…
Share of S&P 500 by Weight Eligible to Repurchase Stock As S&P 500 companies emerge from earnings-related blackout periods, buyback activity is expected to resume by mid-August. That could offer some support to equities, but it is no guarantee that the S&P 500 will move higher. Image: Real Investment Advice
Average Cumulative S&P 500 Total Returns – Invest on Any Day vs. Invest at a New High Record highs make many investors nervous. But history shows that buying into strength has often delivered better forward returns than buying on an average day. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Ratio of Bitcoin to Production Cost Bitcoin is trading at a steep discount to JPMorgan’s estimated $76,000 production cost, but the bank continues to see a bullish long-term path for the cryptocurrency. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows and Liquidity
Consensus EPS Growth Estimates The biggest earnings growth may come from small caps. Their profits are projected to jump 37% this year and 45% in 2027, while S&P 500 earnings are expected to rise 32% and 12%, respectively. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total Concentration has turned the S&P 500 into a top-heavy index. The biggest 10 stocks now account for 40% of its weight and 38% of earnings, pushing multiples higher and magnifying daily moves. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed nudged its Q3 2026 U.S. GDP nowcast down to 2.24% from 2.52% a week earlier, a modest downgrade that leaves the broader growth story intact. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New YorkClick the Image to Enlarge
Earnings Sentiment – S&P 500, STOXX 600, Topix, MSCI EM Strong U.S. earnings expectations and resilient corporate profits are keeping recession fears at bay and bolstering market optimism.. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Median Company EPS Growth Earnings growth at the median S&P 500 company is running at 14%, its strongest pace in four years, helped by AI demand and more confident CEO guidance. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Dollar Net Positioning Speculators are heavily long the dollar, which is a classic contrarian red flag. History shows crowded USD longs often precede pullbacks. Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S.-Listed ETFs: Annual Flows Investors are piling into US-listed ETFs at a record pace. Inflows have reached nearly $1.3 trillion by the end of July, putting the year on track to break the $2 trillion mark. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research