U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Friday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing up 0.11%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock market…
Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index The Greed and Fear Index sits at 53.23, in neutral territory. Last week’s reflexive rally was no surprise after March’s selloff rattled investors. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Monthly Performance the Past 20 Years This year’s conflict in the Middle East has clouded the outlook, but history still favors the bulls: April has rewarded U.S. stocks 80% of the time over the past two decades, as markets tend to climb the wall of worry this time of year. Image: Carson Investment…
S&P 500 Weekly Announced Buybacks Corporate America isn’t done buying its own stock. Buyback announcements across the S&P 500 are gathering steam. Elevated rates and heavier capex are tempering activity, but solid earnings are keeping momentum intact. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Consolidated Equity Positioning Consolidated equity positioning sits in the 20th percentile, deeply underweight. Should tensions ease, positioning could rebound, adding momentum to the next leg higher as sentiment shifts. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Equity Valuation Metrics (Z-Score Since 1900) The pullback hasn’t made U.S. stocks a bargain. Most valuation gauges remain stretched, sitting more than two standard deviations above historical norms. “Cheap” isn’t the word investors are using yet. Image: The Daily Shot
Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies remain firmly underweight at the 23rd percentile, while discretionary investors positioning stays notably cautious at the 16th percentile. A shift in sentiment could quickly spark a push higher. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
AAII Sentiment Survey U.S. retail investors turned more cautious over the past week. Bearish sentiment climbed back above 50%, leaving the bull-bear spread in negative territory for a seventh straight week. Image: The Daily Chartbook
S&P 500 – 13-Week and 26-Week Moving Average The S&P 500 remains in a bull trend with the 13-week moving average still above the 26-week, but the gap has narrowed enough to raise caution. Image: Bloomberg
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment Active managers aren’t backing off yet. With the NAAIM index at 68.36, they’re still betting on U.S. stocks, despite the market’s choppy mood. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by NAAIM members. Image: NAAIM
Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E Valuations have cooled: the S&P 500 has compressed to 20 times forward earnings, and the Mag-7 has come down to 24 times after January’s lofty 31 times. Still not exactly cheap, but definitely a move in the right direction. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research