U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Two Fridays ago, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 followed through, ending the day up 0.59%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether…
S&P 500 and Predecessors, Calendar-Year Price Returns Since 1928 The S&P 500 and its predecessors have finished higher in 73% of years since 1928. Risk never disappears, but staying bearish means fighting a long-standing tailwind. Image: Real Investment Advice
Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index The Truck Tonnage Index increased 0.8% in September. Trucks represent 72.7% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows that, historically, the U.S. stock market has tended to increase in line with the physical size and expansion of…
Five-Year Credit-Default Swaps on Hyperscalers and Chipmakers The AI boom is pushing credit risk to new highs. The race to build is becoming a race to borrow. And protection against default keeps getting more expensive. Image: Bloomberg
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment With the Fear & Greed Index at 20, the market remains fearful. Some traders are stepping back, while others see a chance to buy the dip. Pessimism this heavy can leave room for a bounce. Image: Cable News Network
Central Bank Gold Demand Nowcast Gold buying by central banks has eased, but official-sector demand remains historically strong, helping diversify reserves and support prices. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Hyperscalers Free Cash Flow AI spending is expected to keep hyperscalers free cash flow in the red through 2027, with a recovery in 2028. For now, the cash burn is the cost of staying in the race. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 and Combination of Forward PE, VIX, Bullish Sentiment The Euphoriameter, a composite of forward P/E, the VIX and bullish sentiment, is cooling but it’s still running hot. The danger is that one ugly headline could send today’s bulls running for the exits. Image: Topdown Charts
AAII Sentiment Survey U.S. retail investors are still playing defense. The S&P 500 is near record highs, but the AAII bull-bear spread remains negative. Contrarians tend to like that kind of divergence. Image: American Association of Individual Investors
Real 10-Year Treasury Yield vs. S&P 500 Forward P/E Rising real yields have compressed the S&P 500’s multiple. If bond yields hold near current levels, stocks could keep climbing higher. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs sees little evidence of a meaningful U.S. slowdown, forecasting growth of 2.3% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, broadly in line with consensus. A resilient labor market is helping keep activity on track. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research