U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Two Fridays ago, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 followed through, ending the day up 0.62%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether…
S&P 500 CAPE Valuations and 10 Year Annualized Real Return The S&P 500 is trading at a Shiller CAPE ratio seen only during some of the market’s most expensive periods. That kind of optimism can weigh on real returns in the years ahead, creating a difficult backdrop for risk assets. Image: Real Investment Advice
Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index fell 1% in July. Trucks represent 72.7% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows that, historically, the U.S. stock market has tended to increase in line with the physical size and expansion of the U.S. economy (R²…
Valuations – 12-Month Forward P/E Ranges (MSCI Regions) U.S. and global stocks still look expensive, but earnings growth is justifying the price tag. As long as the profit trend holds, that premium is more a tax on optimism than a red flag. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consensus EPS Growth Estimates Small caps could deliver the biggest earnings surge. Profits are set to jump 34% this year and 47% in 2027, versus 32% and 12% for the S&P 500. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Large Cap Consumer Staples Positioning Positioning in large-cap consumer staples sits in the 13th percentile, with investors heavily underweight. Even a small lift in sentiment could be enough to spark a bounce. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 ex. Energy Year/Year EPS Growth Q2 earnings were remarkably strong, with AI infrastructure stocks once again driving gains across the S&P 500. But beneath the headline strength, the earnings picture remains highly concentrated. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 NTM P/E The equal-weight index trades at 17 times forward earnings, below the benchmark’s 20 times. It is hardly cheap, but the discount makes it look more appealing. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In July, U.S. building permits rose to 1.443 million, above expectations. Historically, building permits tend to peak and then decline prior to economic recessions. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Risk Appetite Indicator Level and Momentum Factors Goldman Sachs’ Risk Appetite Indicator has pushed back into stretched territory as investors pile into higher-risk bets. Upside still exists, but crowded positioning raises the odds of a near-term pullback. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Returns – Magnificent Seven vs. European Banks Since the start of 2022, European banks have outpaced U.S. mega-cap tech stocks. In a market obsessed with AI and the Magnificent Seven, it’s a rare twist. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research