U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Thursday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 1.14%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S.…
Valuation – S&P 500 Trailing P/E: Current vs. Average Bull-Market Extremes At 26 times trailing earnings, the S&P 500 stands well above its historical average and many previous bull-market peaks, leaving little room for bad news. But that multiple alone does not make a crash inevitable. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Days in a Row without a 1% Drop Thirty-five trading days without a 1% decline have left the S&P 500 unusually calm. Historically, stretches of such low volatility have been more common in powerful bull markets than before major selloffs. Image: Carson Investment Research
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment At 29, the Fear & Greed Index still points to fear, not panic. For U.S. equities, that leaves the door open to further gains if the headlines turn friendlier. Image: Cable News Network
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment After hitting a new two-year high of 102.7 three weeks ago, the NAAIM Exposure Index has since dropped to 71.92. Active managers have sharply cut their exposure to U.S. equities as sentiment turns more cautious. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index tracks the two-week average of U.S. equity…
Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total A handful of giants now dominate the S&P 500. The 10 largest stocks account for 40% of the index’s weight and 38% of its earnings, lifting valuations and making the market more vulnerable to sudden swings. Image: Goldman Sachs…
Volatility Control Funds Estimated Equity Allocation Vol-control funds are already stretched at the 95th percentile, leaving little room for another wave of buying. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Hyperscaler Capex US hyperscalers are on track to spend $806 billion this year, with annual capex projected to reach $1.234 trillion by 2027. That kind of spending points to an AI infrastructure supercycle, not just another phase of cloud growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs isn’t seeing a meaningful deceleration in the US economy, forecasting 2.2% growth in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, broadly in line with consensus, supported by a resilient labor market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Percentage Contribution of Returns Between Dividends, Earnings and Valuation Earnings, not multiple expansion, have driven global equities since 2025. That makes the rally more durable and less dependent on falling rates or a renewed surge in risk appetite. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Cumulative Flows Equity inflows have been exceptionally strong this year. Bond demand has held up just as well, even as yields have climbed. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation