U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 A week ago Thursday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 1.06%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests…
Valuation – S&P 500 PEG Ratio Fwd P/E? Rich. PEG? Cheap, because long-term earnings-growth estimates are the highest since 1995. That low PEG is just blockbuster growth expectation. A recession or an AI-spending slowdown could quickly turn that narrative. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Technical Composite A composite of technical breadth measures is screaming oversold on the S&P 500, boosting the odds of a reflexive rally. Setups like this can flip quickly once buyers return. Image: MarketDesk Research
S&P 500 Forward P/E Ratio and Forward EPS Sustainable bull markets are driven by corporate earnings and fundamentals, not just hope. Vibes can lift prices for a while, but profits are what keep the rally going. Image: BCA Research
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment With the Fear & Greed Index at 36, fear dominates but not panic, giving U.S. equities room to edge higher if headlines turn supportive. Image: Cable News Network
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment After hitting a new +2-year high at 102.7 two weeks ago, the NAAIM Exposure Index sits at 87.19. Active managers stay heavily exposed to equities and bullish on U.S. stocks. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index tracks the two-week average of U.S. equity exposure reported by NAAIM members.…
VIX and S&P 500 Seasonality The VIX and the S&P 500 usually move in opposite directions. As the VIX begins its seasonal rise from late July into autumn, the S&P 500’s path tends to get choppier before the typical year-end rally. Image: Topdown Charts
World Portfolio / Gold – 1-Month Rolling Correlation Gold diversifies global portfolios again, acting as insurance against currency depreciation, geopolitical risk, and inflation, and as a hedge when stocks and bonds don’t move together. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
EPS – GS Top-Down vs. Consensus Bottom-Up Estimates Goldman Sachs is adopting a more cautious stance than the street, expecting S&P 500 EPS to rise 24% in 2026, reaching approximately $340. That is notably below the 31% growth projected by consensus estimates. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Share of Global Market Capitalization With just 4% of the world’s population, the United States commands 63% of global equity value. Foreign capital keeps flowing toward its innovation engine. When Wall Street moves, the world follows. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings Sentiment (Analyst Upgrades Minus Downgrades Across Markets) Across markets, upgrades are still outpacing downgrades. For the S&P 500, solid earnings expectations and resilient profits are easing recession worries and lifting investor optimism. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research