S&P 500 and Treasury Bond to Corporate BB High Yield Spread Widening credit spreads often signal upcoming declines in the S&P 500, serving as a valuable leading indicator of equity market stress because they typically react early to shifts in market sentiment and risk. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Index – 50-Day Moving Average and 200-Day Moving Average The S&P 500 is near its 200-day moving average, a key resistance after a strong rally from April lows. Historically, regaining this level after a breakdown doesn’t always result in sustained gains and can precede further declines. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Ratio to 1-Year MA vs. S&P 500 EPS S&P 500 market pricing broadly aligns with Deutsche Bank’s Q2 earnings growth forecast. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Valuation – Average P/E for Stoxx Europe 600 and S&P 500 As equity markets rally and valuations climb, markets become more susceptible to negative surprises. This has led many investors and analysts to worry about stretched prices and limited margin for error. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Quarterly Earnings S&P 500 earnings growth in Q1 2025 was robust. Although earlier forecasts anticipated slower growth, actual results surpassed expectations, showing only a mild deceleration while maintaining double-digit gains. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Trailing 4-Quarter ROE The S&P 500’s LTM return on equity has climbed to 21.1%, signaling strong profitability among S&P 500 companies and offering a positive outlook for investors. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Citi Economic Surprise Index vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Economic momentum-reflected in growth data and surprises relative to forecasts-continues to be the main force driving U.S. Treasury yields. Image: Paulsen Perspectives
Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model now projects a 2.3% annualized increase in U.S. real GDP for Q2 2025, suggesting a near-term economic rebound after a disappointing first quarter. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment A NAAIM Exposure Index reading of 81.06 indicates that active investment managers are heavily exposed to U.S. equities, reflecting strong bullish sentiment and a positive market outlook. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by NAAIM members. Image:…
Wage Growth vs. Fed Funds Rate When wage growth lags behind the fed funds rate, it is interpreted as a sign that monetary policy is restrictive, as borrowing costs exceed the pace of income growth, potentially dampening consumer spending and economic activity. Image: Yahoo Finance
U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock market tendency is bullish, bearish or neutral. It is a contrarian indicator. A bullish signal suggests that the U.S. stock market may go up, while a bearish signal…