U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Friday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 followed through, ending the day up 0.62%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the…
S&P 500 Annual Total Return by Change in Reported EPS Earnings drive corrections by severity, not direction. The deeper the earnings decline, the deeper the market decline. Every 20% market drop has arrived alongside a meaningful earnings decline, without exception. Image: Real Investment Advice
VIX Seasonality The market’s summer calm does not always last. Volatility often picks up from late July into the autumn, setting the stage for a bumpier ride in U.S. stocks. Image: Topdown Charts
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment The Fear & Greed Index sits at 66, firmly in greed territory. Risk appetite is healthy, not euphoric. There’s still enough fuel to push the market higher. Image: Cable News Network
Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns Since 1950, the S&P 500 has tended to post stronger returns in the second half of August than in the first. Could that pave the way for new all-time highs? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equity Valuation Metrics (Z-Score Since 1900) U.S. stocks have priced in a lot of good news, with most valuation metrics more than two standard deviations above their historical averages. But momentum could keep the rally going longer than many expect. Image: The Daily Shot
Valuation – S&P 500 NTM P/E At 16 times forward earnings, compared with 20 times for the benchmark, the equal-weight index is not cheap, but it looks more attractive than the broader market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Estimated Hyperscaler Debt Issuance Credit markets are joining the AI buildout. What began as an equity story is now a credit one. Goldman Sachs strategists expect debt to fund 35% of hyperscalers’ capex by 2027. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
12-Month Forward ROE Ranges for Different MSCI Regions Higher ROE usually translates into stronger profits and a valuation premium, but U.S. equity multiples are driven just as much by growth, risk, liquidity, and investor sentiment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
AAII Sentiment Survey New high for the S&P 500, but same old skepticism from U.S. retail investors. The AAII bull‑bear spread remains in negative territory, a contrarian setup that has often preceded more upside. Image: The Daily Chartbook
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Markets are betting on steady growth, not a boom. The gap between cyclicals and defensives points to roughly 2.5% U.S. real GDP growth, broadly in line with Goldman Sachs’ 2.4% forward 4Q GDP growth forecast. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research