Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index The Market Greed/Fear Index, with a reading of 75.52, shows that investor sentiment is nearing extreme greed, a level elevated enough to warrant some risk management. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Monthly Rank Historically, September is the worst-performing month for U.S. stocks—this holds true for the past 10 years, 20 years, and going back to 1950. It is rare to see both August and September finish higher in a post-election year. Image: Carson Investment Research
Consolidated Equity Positioning A moderate overweight in consolidated equity positioning—currently at the 66th percentile—can help sustain the stock market’s positive momentum. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Insider Transactions Ratio Insider buying and selling are now balanced as the Insider Transactions Ratio returns to neutral territory. Image: Barron’s
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales fell in August to 442K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy as a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge
Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic and discretionary positioning are diverging: systematic strategies remain bullish on equities driven by technical momentum, while discretionary investors stay caution amid economic and geopolitical concerns. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Atlanta Fed GDPNow U.S. Real GDP Estimate The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projects that U.S. real GDP will expand at a 3.5% annualized rate in Q3 2025, suggesting steady and robust economic growth. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
Mega-Cap Growth & Tech Positioning Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech stocks stands at the 42nd percentile, indicating potential for further growth and increased investor interest. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Announced Share Buybacks in the U.S. The ongoing pipeline of stock repurchase programs demonstrates strong confidence among executives and continues to underpin the U.S. stock market through 2025 and beyond. Image: Bloomberg
Cumulative Global Sector Fund Flows While the technology, industrial, and financial sectors have attracted substantial inflows over the past year, the energy and health care sectors have experienced notable outflows. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock market tendency is bullish, bearish or neutral. It is a contrarian indicator. A bullish signal suggests that the U.S. stock market may go up, while a bearish signal…