U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 At last Friday’s close, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was neutral, and the S&P 500 followed through on Monday closing down just 0.19%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock…
Days per Year the S&P 500 Price and Breadth Moved in Opposite Directions Years like this, when the S&P 500 holds firm while breadth lags, have tended to come with a higher risk of volatility and pullbacks, even if they rarely offer precise timing. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Four-Year Cycle for 2026 After following the usual midterm-year playbook at the start of the year, the S&P 500 went off script in the spring and has since lost momentum, leaving more consolidation into the fall looking more likely. Image: Ned Davis Research
Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total What once mirrored the market now moves it. The top 10 S&P 500 stocks account for 39% of the index and 35% of earnings, lifting valuations and adding more volatility. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
MSCI AC World EPS MSCI AC World EPS estimates for 2027 are still drifting higher, with analysts convinced that the AI‑fuelled tech surge will show up in margins instead of morphing into another overinvestment cycle. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consumer Staples Positioning Positioning in Consumer Staples is stuck in the 6th percentile, leaving investors heavily underweight. A modest change in sentiment could be enough to ignite a rebound. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Gold / T-Bills Total Return vs. T-Bill Real Yield Under the new Fed chair, gold faces near‑term headwinds and choppier price action, but the longer‑term picture still looks constructive if inflation remains sticky and real rates stay contained. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Effective Corporate Tax Rate Corporate tax rates have fallen since the 1980s in many markets, with little movement in the past few years. That tailwind has often translated into higher dividends and increased buybacks, reinforcing equity market performance. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings Surprises of S&P 500 Companies Earnings season keeps sending the same message: corporate profits are still holding up. So far, 65% of S&P 500 companies have beaten Q2 estimates by at least one standard deviation, while just 6% have missed. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Brent Crude Oil Monthly Average Closing Price Under a high‑price stress scenario, Brent could climb past 120 dollars a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and still average close to 100 dollars through 2027 if flows through Hormuz remain disrupted. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield Are U.S. long-bond yields on the verge of breaking above their post-2007 ceiling? The level around 5% could give way if inflation stays sticky, demand for long-duration remains weak, or the Fed keeps policy tight. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond