U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Monday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing up 0.83%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock…
Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index The Greed and Fear Index sits at 58.28, back to neutral, after sentiment slumped last week amid rising Middle East tensions and stubbornly high energy prices. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Performance When Q1 Low Breaks the December Low Close When the S&P 500 sinks below its December low in the first quarter, history tends to flash a warning light. On average, U.S. stocks have gained only 0.2% for the full year when that happens. Image: Carson Investment Research
Consolidated Equity Positioning Consolidated equity positioning, now at the 35th percentile, remains below neutral, leaving room for upside if sentiment turns. For now, that turn has yet to come. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator sits at 0.0, firmly in neutral territory, a reading that has often come before a push higher in the S&P 500 over the next month. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Oil Price Fair Value Oil is trading 56% above its estimated medium‑term fair value. Apart from the 2022 shock peak, the market has rarely looked this overbought, leaving room for downside if conditions normalize. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Around Major Geopolitical Events U.S. stocks have a habit of looking past turbulence in oil. After past geopolitical flare-ups, the S&P 500 has usually pushed higher, and this episode could follow the same script. Image: TS Lombard
Estimated Oil Exports Through Strait Hormuz, Based on Vessel Count Goldman Sachs has toughened its base case for the Strait of Hormuz, now expecting 21 days of minimal crude flows followed by a month‑long recovery toward normal levels. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History At 21 times forward earnings for the S&P 500 and 25 for the Nasdaq 100, stocks aren’t cheap. But investors aren’t blinking, convinced the earnings momentum hasn’t faded yet. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bond Volatility – MOVE Index U.S. rate volatility keeps climbing as Middle East tensions shake investors, pushing the MOVE index above 95 and pulling stocks lower. The spike tells you everything about the market mood right now. Image: The Daily Shot
S&P 500 Price Target for 2026 Driven by expectations of robust earnings-per-share growth, Goldman Sachs is keeping its bullish view, projecting the S&P 500 to rise 12% to 7,600 this year. A few bumps on the road, though, seem hard to avoid. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research