U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Friday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing up 0.69%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock…
Recession – Leading Economic Index (LEI) vs. U.S. GDP A recession isn’t on the radar for 2026, but the Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index keeps sliding, hinting that growth could still lose steam this year. The coming months may reveal how resilient the U.S. economy really is. Image: Real Investment Advice
Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 March has often been kind to U.S. stocks, with data since 1964 showing the S&P 500 averages a 1.1% gain for the month. Maybe a touch of spring optimism finds its way onto trading screens. Image: Topdown Charts
Gold Price After the recent sharp pullback, gold is regaining ground helped by central‑bank purchases, lingering market jitters and growing bets on rate cuts. For now, global demand for bullion shows little sign of cooling. Image: MarketDesk Research
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment The S&P 500 is hovering near record highs, and with sentiment sitting at 44 on the Fear & Greed Index, bulls still have room to push higher if momentum picks up. Image: Cable News Network
% of Large-Cap Mutual Funds Outperforming their Benchmarks Active large-cap funds are enjoying an early win, with 57% topping their benchmarks so far this year, well above the average of 37%. But if history is any guide, keeping that edge will be tough. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
AAII Sentiment Survey U.S. retail investors turned more cautious over the past week as the AAII bull-bear spread fell to a three-month low, which is no surprise amid persistent market jitters. Image: The Daily Chartbook
Relative Equity Market Performance – USA vs. Rest of the World U.S. equities have lagged global peers recently, posting their steepest relative underperformance in 15 years. The leadership baton has passed to cheaper, more cyclical markets overseas, pointing to brighter days for the global cycle. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs is betting on a resilient U.S. economy, projecting growth of 2.7% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027, both ahead of consensus, as easing inflation and steady hiring keep the expansion on track. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment At 74.93, the latest reading shows that active managers have trimmed their optimism on U.S. equities, pointing to a cooler but still confident mood in the market. Not too hot, not too cold. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity…
U.S. Equities – Net Portfolio Equity Flows Investors can’t seem to get enough of U.S. stocks. Net inflows in 2025 topped an amount equal to about 2% of GDP, an intensity the market hasn’t seen in years. Clearly, investors still see plenty of upside in U.S. equities. Image: Deutsche Bank