U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Thursday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 1.02%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S.…
Net Foreign Purchases of Long-Term U.S. Securities Foreign appetite for U.S. securities is still going strong. For all the talk of a dollar exodus, the world’s money managers are behaving as if nothing has changed. Talk is cheap. Flows tell the truth. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Performance After April >5% Since 1950, a 5%+ April rally has set the tone: May has risen 90% of the time, and the rest of the year has posted a median return of 14.1%, giving bulls a solid tailwind. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Returns in April With a 10.4% gain, the S&P 500 just posted its second-strongest April since 1950, a powerful boost that often spills into the rest of the year, especially alongside new highs. Image: Carson Investment Research
Valuation – MSCI World 12-Month Forward PE With global equities trading at 18.5 times forward earnings, valuations look stretched by historical standards. Not a bubble, but far from cheap. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. ETF and Mutual Fund Flows Over the past 12 months, U.S. investors have poured more money into bonds and money market funds than into riskier equities, as geopolitical tensions linger and interest rates stay stubbornly high. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Annual Average IPO Return During First Trading Day In 2026, U.S. IPOs rose 19% on average in their first trading session, edging above the 30-year median and delivering a solid first-day pop. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.48%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to…
AAII Sentiment Survey U.S. retail investors remain cautious, holding back even as the S&P 500 pushes to new highs. The AAII bull-bear spread slipped back into negative territory over the past week. The rally is real, but conviction is missing. Image: The Daily Chartbook
% of Companies with Revenue Exposure to Just One Sector (TOPIX 500, MXAPJ, STOXX 600, S&P 500) The S&P 500 shows a striking level of concentration, with 61.1% of its companies relying on a single sector for revenue, leaving the index more exposed to shocks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
WTI Oil Prices in Real Terms The 2026 oil shock looks far less dramatic in historical terms. It still bites, just not with the same force. Once you adjust for inflation and reduced energy intensity, today’s price levels compare more favourably than in 2022. Image: Deutsche Bank