U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Wednesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 1.46%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S.…
S&P 500 Earnings Growth – Consensus vs. Historical Norms Historically, S&P 500 earnings have risen 6.5% annually. The 18.6% call for 2026 is more than twice that rate, and forecasts for 2027 still around 16%. That kind of optimism tends to look compelling right up until it doesn’t. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Bull Markets Over the past 50 years, the average U.S. bull market ran for eight years and returned 288%. At just 3.5 years old and up more than 100%, this one still looks far from exhausted, leaving bears stuck in a painful squeeze. Image: Carson Investment Research
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment With the Fear & Greed Index at 67, investors are comfortable taking risk. Not extreme yet, but clearly supportive of the ongoing rally. Image: Cable News Network
U.S. Share Buyback Authorization Announcements Buybacks are giving Wall Street a tailwind, with U.S. authorizations topping a record $665 billion so far this year and offering a firm backstop for stocks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Magnificent Seven and S&P 500 ex Magnificent Seven Earnings Growth After several quarters of narrowing performance between the Mag 7 and the S&P 493, the gap widened sharply again this quarter as the Mag 7 pulled decisively ahead. The concentration risk story isn’t going away anytime soon. Image: J.P. Morgan
Forward P/E Ratio and Subsequent 5-Year Annualized Returns With U.S. equities still priced for perfection, the next five years may bring thinner returns. These are exceptional businesses, but price matters. Even the strongest names can disappoint if you pay too much. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 Median Company EPS Growth Earnings growth for the S&P 500 median company is running in the double digits, the strongest pace in four years, lifted by AI enthusiasm and confident outlooks from executives. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Valuation – Shiller CAPE Ratio Shiller CAPE puts U.S. stocks back in the stratosphere, great on the way up, unforgiving on the way down. From these levels, history argues for lower returns and higher risk. Not a great starting point if you care about future returns. Image: Topdown Charts
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment At 96.67, the NAAIM Exposure Index shows active managers heavily tilted toward equities. Confidence in the U.S. outlook is building, and at least for now, momentum continues to favor the bulls. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported…
S&P 500 Technical Composite A composite of technical breadth measures is flashing overbought for the S&P 500, where investors typically start trimming exposure and rebalancing portfolios. Taking some chips off the table would be a natural move. Image: MarketDesk Research