U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Three Fridays ago, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell, and the S&P 500 followed through, ending the day up 0.59%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether…
18 AI Buildout Names = 33.6% of the S&P 500 If the AI complex falls 20% while everything else holds steady, the S&P 500 would drop 6.7%. The other 485 stocks would need to rise 10.1% just to keep the index flat. That’s a lot of weight for the rest of the market to carry.…
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment With the NAAIM Exposure Index at 76.84, active managers appear cautious but far from bearish, keeping substantial exposure to U.S. stocks. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index tracks the two-week average of U.S. equity exposure reported by NAAIM members. Image: The Daily Chartbook
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment The Fear & Greed Index sits at 34, signaling fear, not panic. Better news could send U.S. stocks higher. Image: Cable News Network
Seasonality – Monthly Return Stats for the S&P 500 November has typically been a bright spot for U.S. stocks, with an average gain of 1.6%. Seasonal flows, holiday-spending optimism and year-end positioning could help extend the market’s appetite for risk. Image: Topdown Charts
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 0.62%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to…
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs sees little sign of a meaningful U.S. slowdown. It projects growth of 2.3% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027, broadly in line with consensus, as a resilient labor market keeps the economy moving. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Median 2-Week S&P 500 Returns Early November is generally a very favorable period for the S&P 500. Since 1950, the first half of November ranks seventh for gains among all half-month periods. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Technical Composite A composite of technical breadth measures places the S&P 500 above neutral, but nowhere near overbought. A push higher is still on the table if momentum returns. So far, though, the market lacks a catalyst. Image: MarketDesk Research
Monthly Prediction Trading Volumes Retail trading activity has cooled year over year, but prediction markets are heating up. Their monthly volume hit $78 billion in September. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Markets are pricing in steady growth, not a boom. The gap between cyclicals and defensives suggests U.S. real GDP growth of 1.9%, in line with Goldman Sachs’ forward 4Q GDP growth forecast Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research