U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Wednesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was neutral well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 barely moved, closing up just 0.02%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S.…
Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index The Greed and Fear Index is at 73.39, approaching extreme greed. Sentiment is clearly bullish, though not yet stretched to the levels that usually mark major market peaks. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Return During June June has a reputation for weakness in midterm years, but the last decade tells a different story: it closed higher in 9 out of 10 years, posting a median gain of 2.0%. That track record looks far stronger than the narrative suggests. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Around Major Geopolitical Events Since 1939 The S&P 500’s reaction to the Middle East conflict has shifted from one of the weakest after a geopolitical shock to one of the strongest, as investors moved past the selloff and priced in a lower risk of major disruption. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning At 0.2, Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator sits close to neutral territory. In the past, similar readings have preceded an average 0.8% rise in the S&P 500 over the following month. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History Risk appetite shows little sign of cooling. The Nasdaq 100 trades at 27 times forward earnings, with the Russell 2000 at 26 and the S&P 500 at 21. Valuations are stretched, but investors are still betting on more upside. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 vs. U.S. Treasuries The S&P 500 looks stretched against Treasuries, trading over one standard deviation rich on a year-on-year basis and in the 95th percentile of the past 50 years. A return to the mean would favor Treasuries. Image: Bloomberg
Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities The probability of U.S. recession stands at 1.82%. When this recession indicator exceeds 5% (red line), history suggests that the probability of recession increases significantly. The chart shows the smoothed U.S. recession probabilities indicator on a log scale. Smoothed U.S. recession probabilities are obtained from a dynamic-factor markov-switching model applied to…
Average Percentile Rank for U.S. Equity Market Concentration, Valuation, and Magnitude of Rally U.S. equities are flashing familiar signs: rich valuations, heavy concentration, and outsized recent returns. This is less a signal that a crash is imminent and more a reminder that expectations leave little room for error. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Trend Channel The S&P 500 caught up to the bottom of the trend channel in place since October 2022. If buyers defend this level, the index could keep grinding higher along that support. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Share Buyback Authorization Announcements Buybacks are fueling the rally on Wall Street, with U.S. authorizations exceeding a record $860 billion since the start of the year and reinforcing a strong floor for equities. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research