U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Tuesday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 0.91%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S.…
S&P 500 – 1997-2001 vs. Mid 2023-2025 Analog The S&P 500’s mid-2023 to 2025 bull market echoes the late-1990s dot-com meltup in both momentum and mood. For now, the trend remains intact, even as pockets of skepticism linger. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Index Returns in November U.S. stocks bottomed on November 20, snapping back over the next three sessions. Late‑month trading in November tends to brighten sentiment and put fresh wind behind the market’s sails. Image: Carson Investment Research
GS U.S. Financial Conditions Index Despite lower policy rates and the Fed’s decision to end quantitative tightening, U.S. financial conditions have tightened recently. For investors, the policy backdrop isn’t as friendly as the rate cuts imply. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bear Market – Number of S&P 500 Stocks Down 20% or More More than a third of S&P 500 stocks are down 20% or more, even as the index holds up. It’s a reminder that market breadth is thinning, often a sign of late-cycle fatigue. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 23.3%. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
Valuation – 12-Month Forward P/E Ranges (MSCI Regions) The U.S. market still rides tech and AI momentum, but stretched valuations and bubble worries leave little margin for error if sentiment turns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed nudged its Q4 2025 U.S. GDP Nowcast up to 2.31% from 2.10% a week earlier, reinforcing the story of steady, moderate growth. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New York Click the Image to Enlarge
U.S. Corporate Profits as Percent of GDP Corporate America’s profit share remains elevated in 2025, a sign that the pandemic-era surge in profitability has proven surprisingly durable. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day This Thanksgiving, markets have one more reason to give thanks. The S&P 500 edges near all-time highs, turning the holiday into a feast of bullish fervor that even the turkey is getting a taste of investor euphoria. Happy Thanksgiving! 🦃😎
U.S. Real Retail Sales and Recession In September, U.S. real retail sales stand at 1.20% YoY. About 70% of U.S. GDP is personal consumption. In the past, U.S. real retail sales trended sideways before the recession began.