U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Two Mondays ago, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 didn’t disappoint, ending the day up 1.65%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether…
Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index The Greed and Fear Index sits at 76.51, as sentiment and positioning remain stretched, with professional investors heavily exposed to equities and retail participation still elevated. Image: Real Investment Advice
Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns The S&P 500 is down about 3% so far this month. But if seasonality plays out, July could flip the script, ranking as the strongest month on average over the past two decades, giving bulls a reason to smile. Image: Carson Investment Research
Consolidated Equity Positioning Consolidated equity positioning is in the 36th percentile, still far from crowded and leaving plenty of room to add exposure. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator sits at 2.0. Similar readings in the past have been followed by an average 0.4% decline in the S&P 500 over the next month. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History Risk appetite shows few cracks. The Russell 2000 trades at 26 times forward earnings, versus 24 for the Nasdaq 100 and 20 for the S&P 500. Valuations are elevated, but demand for equities remains resilient. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
AAII Sentiment Survey AAII sentiment rose for a second consecutive week, lifting the bull-bear spread back above zero. U.S. retail investors are regaining confidence, with six-month outlooks brightening after a stretch of bearishness. Image: The Daily Chartbook
Index Performance – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, Mag 7 The rotation out of mega-cap Tech is still underway. Since late October 2025, the Magnificent Seven have lagged badly, while the broader market has shown far more resilience. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Tech: Capex and Buyback & Dividends Tech capex has now overtaken buybacks and dividends. Are shareholders trading short-term pain for long-term gain? It only works if that spending delivers real returns. Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
S&P 500 Quarterly YoY EPS Growth Relative to Consensus Expectations Consensus sees S&P 500 earnings rising 22% year on year in 2Q 2026, driven largely by strong tech profits. Once again, tech is carrying the market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Price Target for 2026 Goldman Sachs still sees steady earnings growth driving the S&P 500 up 17% to 8,000 in 2026, even as periods of volatility are expected along the way. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research