U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Last Thursday, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was not bullish at all, well before the opening bell. The S&P 500 followed through, ending the day down 4.36%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests…
Average S&P 500 Return 12 Months After the Midterm Election, by Results In the year after midterm elections, stocks gained an average of 15.5% when a Republican held the White House and Democrats controlled Congress. The S&P 500 rose in all 19 cycles, with gains across every political configuration. Image: Real Investment Advice
Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance Risk appetite for U.S. equities has picked up in November as fund managers reassess the post-midterm political landscape. But they’re not reaching for risk: defensive stocks remain in favor. Image: S&P Global Market Intelligence
MSCI ACWI Aggregate Earnings Growth Corporate profits are still surging. As earnings season winds down, global earnings growth looks set to hold at 33% in Q3. The rally is broadening beyond tech, energy and materials, and Europe is gaining on the U.S.. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Implied Correlation Correlation across S&P 500 stocks bounced from an unusually low level but remained subdued, as investors focused more closely on fundamentals. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at 3.03% YoY in October. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…
CTAs Exposure to Bonds CTAs are still cautious on rates. Bond exposure sits in the 11th percentile, and they have covered only a fraction of their shorts. More covering may be ahead. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Estimated Wealth Effects on Annualized Real PCE Growth Should AI-related stocks stumble, the wealth effect supporting consumption could become a headwind in 2027. Consumer sentiment, after all, is closely linked to market performance. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Effect of Financial Conditions on U.S. Real GDP Growth The tailwind from financial conditions has faded, and is expected to become a headwind for U.S. growth in 2027. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Small Cap Equity Positioning Small-cap positioning remains very light, sitting in the 18th percentile. A turn in sentiment could bring investors back into the trade. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Hyperscaler Debt Issuance Across Currencies Hyperscalers have issued $296 billion of debt worldwide so far this year, with another $440 billion expected in 2027. The pace may vary from borrower to borrower, depending on market conditions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research