U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Two Fridays ago, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing up 0.84%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S.…
Volatility – VIX and SKEW Index The VIX–SKEW divergence is less about calm and more about caution. Volatility looks subdued, but the steady rise in SKEW suggests investors are quietly paying up for protection against a downside shock. Image: Real Investment Advice
Dow Jones Performance Under Various Federal Reserve Bank Chairs The Dow has performed well under Jerome Powell, delivering an annualized return of 8.4%, comfortably above the long-term average of 6.2%. That puts him 8th among the 16 Fed chairs. Will Kevin Warsh do better? Image: Carson Investment Research
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment With a reading of 58, the Fear & Greed Index is holding above neutral, signaling that bullish sentiment is still in play among market participants. Image: Cable News Network
Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index remained unchanged in April. Trucks represent 72.7% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows that, historically, the U.S. stock market has tended to increase in line with the physical size and expansion of the U.S. economy (R²…
Valuation – S&P 500 NTM P/E At 16 times forward earnings, versus 21 for the benchmark, the equal-weight index is not exactly cheap, but it offers better relative value. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
2-Month U.S. Equity/U.S. 10-Year Bond Yield Correlation The two-month correlation between U.S. equities and 10-year yields has broken down to late-1990s extremes, typically a recipe for higher volatility and greater pressure on duration-sensitive sectors, especially growth stocks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
AAII Sentiment Survey The S&P 500 sits near all-time highs, but U.S. retail investors have turned more bearish, pushing the AAII bull-bear spread back below zero. That pessimism could leave the door open for further upside. Image: The Daily Chartbook
S&P 500 Valuations The U.S. market looks cyclically overheated. Valuation composites show stretched conditions, raising the risk of a sharp correction. So far, however, recession signals remain absent. Image: Topdown Charts
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment At 82.02, the latest reading shows active managers remain firmly bullish on U.S. equities, confident without tipping into euphoria. Momentum, for now, is still on the bulls’ side. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by NAAIM members.…
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Markets are leaning toward a slightly slower growth outlook. Relative performance between cyclical and defensive sectors points to roughly 1.5% U.S. real GDP growth, below Goldman Sachs’ 1.9% forward 4Q GDP growth forecast Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research