U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator – S&P 500 Two Fridays ago, our Stock Market Bull & Bear Indicator was bullish well before the opening bell and the S&P 500 followed through, closing up 0.37%. Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S.…
S&P 500 Annual vs. Intra-Year Returns The S&P 500 tends to see a 5% to 10% pullback at least once a year, and with a double-digit drop already logged in March, the next dip may be milder. Markets usually don’t take two big hits back-to-back. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Annual Highs Per Month The S&P 500 has never peaked in June. Every other month has done so at least once since 1950. If history holds, the market’s high may still be ahead, giving bulls reason to smile. Image: Carson Investment Research
Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment The S&P 500 is flirting with record highs, and with the Fear & Greed Index holding at a neutral 55, the market is not showing signs of excess just yet. Image: Cable News Network
GS Financial Conditions Index Confidence usually firms alongside rising markets, with looser U.S. financial conditions now supporting both consumer spending and business investment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Relative Total Return Performance S&P 500 Momentum vs. Low Volatility Stocks The ratio of S&P 500 momentum to low volatility stocks is nearing Tech Bubble peaks, pointing to a tech-fueled late cycle. The trend can extend, but it also heightens the risk of a more abrupt downside if that leadership falters. Image: Goldman Sachs Global…
U.S. Equity Valuation Metrics (Z-Score Since 1900) U.S. stocks are trading at stretched levels, with most valuation gauges sitting more than two standard deviations above history. In this kind of market, “cheap” is a relic of the past. Image: The Daily Shot
Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total The market once mirrored reality. Now it amplifies it. Ten mega caps make up 41% of the S&P 500, driving valuations and magnifying every move. It works beautifully on the way up. On the way down, it cuts deep.…
CPI Computers, Periph and Others vs. Import Price (Leading Indicator) AI may put upward pressure on near-term CPI, especially in computers, peripherals and related electronics, as surging demand lifts the cost of chips, memory and other key components. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs is sticking with its U.S. growth forecast, seeing the economy hold at 2.1% in 2026 and 2.0% in 2027, backed by tax cuts, easier financial conditions, and fading tariff headwinds. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment At 86.82, the NAAIM Exposure Index shows active managers remain heavily invested in U.S. equities, reinforcing a bullish risk tone. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by NAAIM members. Image: NAAIM