U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator

U.S. Stock Market Bull and Bear Indicator Using multiple financial data, this great model helps investors navigate through different market conditions. It suggests whether the U.S. stock market tendency is bullish, bearish or neutral. It is a contrarian indicator. A bullish signal suggests that the U.S. stock market may go up, while a bearish signal…

Valuation – Real S&P 500 % Deviation from Exponential Growth Trend

Valuation – Real S&P 500 % Deviation from Exponential Growth Trend Considering that the S&P 500 is experiencing one of the most significant deviations from its long-term exponential trend in recorded history, it is still reasonable to expect a reversion to the mean at some point. Image: Real Investment Advice

Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns

Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Average Monthly Returns Seasonality is a tailwind, as April has been historically a strong month for U.S. stocks in the fourth year of the U.S. presidential cycle. Image: Carson Investment Research

Secular Bull Market Analogs and S&P 500

Secular Bull Market Analogs and S&P 500 Since the Great Recession, U.S. stocks have behaved like a secular bull market, which is characterized by an extended period of growth and rising prices. Image: BofA Global Research

Risk Appetite in Flows After Adjusting for Seasonality and Cyclical Growth

Risk Appetite in Flows After Adjusting for Seasonality and Cyclical Growth The current level of risk appetite indicates significant potential for further expansion, but we are entering a phase characterized by historically low levels of equity inflows, which could have an impact on market dynamics. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

High Yield Bond Flows

High Yield Bond Flows Investors have chased higher returns by taking on more risk with high yield bonds, a strategy that can yield lucrative rewards but also exposes them to heightened vulnerability should market conditions deteriorate. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. GDP Growth

U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. GDP Growth The large gap that currently exists between the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and U.S. real GDP will eventually close, as economic indicators tend to align over time. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Valuation – Russell 2000 Forward P/E

Valuation – Russell 2000 Forward P/E The U.S. small-cap forward P/E is now in line with the historical average, potentially making small-caps an attractive option for long-term investors looking to capitalize on potentially higher returns in the future. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy

Volatility Divergence – VIX vs. MOVE

Volatility Divergence – VIX vs. MOVE The divergence between VIX and MOVE presents unique challenges and opportunities for market participants, reflecting different expectations and perceptions of risk in the equity and bond markets. Image: BofA Global Research

Sentiment – Global Risk Demand Index

Sentiment – Global Risk Demand Index The Morgan Stanley Global Risk Demand Index indicates that investors’ risk appetite is high, as it remains stretched, suggesting an elevated demand for risky assets. Image: Morgan Stanley