The Cost of Calling a Bubble Early: S&P 500 vs. T-bills Seven years ago, many serious investors warned that the market was in a bubble. Since October 2019, $100,000 in the S&P 500 has grown to about $287,000. The same amount held in cash would be about $121,000. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Median Performance Around First Fed Rate Hikes U.S. stocks often struggle for about four months after the first rate hike, then rebound. 2026 appears to be following the same pattern. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Gold Gold’s selloff goes beyond ETF selling, with rising yields and a stronger U.S. dollar pointing to a broader repricing. Image: Deutsche Bank
Equity Share of U.S. Household Financial Asset Portfolio vs. S&P 500 Cyclically-Adjusted P/E Ratio With everyone crowded into equities and valuations stretched, there’s little cushion left. History doesn’t call for a crash, but it shows that markets priced for perfection have little room for surprises. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. 2-Year Yield Around First Fed Rate Hikes U.S. yields often rise ahead of the first rate hike. In modest tightening cycles, they tend to peak soon after. In more sustained ones, they keep climbing. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed’s Q4 2026 U.S. GDP nowcast slipped to 2.81% from 2.82%, leaving the growth outlook essentially intact. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New YorkClick the Image to Enlarge
U.S. Equity Market Speculative Trading Indicator Animal spirits are not yet running hot. Goldman Sachs’s U.S. Equity Market Speculative Trading Indicator is firm, but remains below previous cycle peaks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession At just 13%, market-implied recession odds for the next year remain below their long-run average, keeping the backdrop supportive for risk assets. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Sector P/E Valuations Relative to History Energy still looks cheap, while Industrials, Healthcare and Consumer Staples face high expectations. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Real Trailing 4Q EPS Relative to 30-Year Trend S&P 500 earnings are running well ahead of their 30-year trend, helping support stocks. But if the boom loses steam, lofty valuations could leave the market exposed. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance from the October 26 Close to December 31, by Market Regime In the nine midterm years since 1951 when the S&P 500 was up year to date on October 26, it rose through year-end every single time, gaining an average of 6.14%. Image: Real Investment Advice