Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index At 63.20, the Greed and Fear Index has slipped from its highs, reflecting a cooler tone over the last four weeks. It’s not a warning light, but with September’s track record, this softening in risk appetite is worth watching. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Price Target for 2026 Goldman Sachs is sticking with its call for earnings to drive the S&P 500 to 8,000 in 2026, a path that implies a 17% annual return even if the ride stays bumpy. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consolidated Equity Positioning Consolidated equity positioning drifted lower to the 58th percentile, but remains modestly overweight. With positioning far from extreme, investors have room to add risk. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator sits at -0.5. Historically, the S&P 500 has posted an average 1.1% gain over the following month after similar readings. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance on the Week of FOMC Meetings U.S. stocks have whipsawed through recent FOMC meetings, but the average week still closes in the green. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
CTAs Exposure to Equities CTA positioning is broadly elevated. The S&P 500 sits at the 79th percentile, the Nasdaq-100 still lags at the 46th, while the Russell 2000 is stretched at the 92nd. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. Equity Index P/E Valuations vs. History Risk appetite is firmly intact. The Russell 2000 trades at 24 times forward earnings, above the Nasdaq 100 at 23 times and the S&P 500 at 19 times. Valuations look stretched, but money keeps chasing stocks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Forecast of Gold Prices Goldman Sachs still sees gold hitting $4,900 a troy ounce by the end of 2026, supported by relentless central-bank buying. But growing use of gold derivatives to hedge policy risk could be adding volatility. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
AAII Sentiment Survey U.S. retail bulls are running out of gas. AAII sentiment has rolled over, and with the bull‑bear spread negative in 24 of 37 weeks so far this year, the path of least resistance still points higher. Image: The Daily Chartbook
S&P 500 Return Around Start of Fed Hiking Cycles History says the S&P 500 tends to stumble in the weeks after the Fed starts hiking, before recovering as the broader trend resumes. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 PEG Ratio Fwd P/E? Rich. PEG? Cheap, because long-term earnings-growth estimates are the highest since 1995. That low PEG is just blockbuster growth expectation. A recession or an AI-spending slowdown could quickly turn that narrative. Image: Real Investment Advice