Category: Blog

S&P 500 Average Performance per Day The calendar favors the bulls: October 28 has historically been the S&P 500’s best day of the year. Will the Fed spoil the party today? Image: Carson Investment Research

Ownership of the U.S. Equity Market U.S. households now own 42% of the U.S. equity market. But that ownership is heavily concentrated, with nearly 90% in the hands of the wealthiest 10%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Seasonality – Average Path of the S&P 500 Through a Year Since 1928, With Midterm and Non-Midterm Years Averages mask wide dispersion, but if history is any guide, the S&P 500 is entering into a seasonally strong period. Image: Deutsche Bank

CTAs Exposure to Bonds CTAs are still keeping their distance from rates risk. Bond allocations sit at the 7th percentile, leaving fixed income firmly out of favor. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

MCG & Tech vs. Rest of S&P 500 MCG & Tech has fallen over the past two weeks while the rest of the S&P 500 pushed higher. The divergence points to sector rotation rather than a broader downturn in U.S. stocks. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

CTAs Exposure to Equities CTAs have continued to trim equity exposure, but positioning remains relatively high at the 62nd percentile. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation

Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year The market puts the odds of a U.S. recession over the next year at just 13%. Consensus is closer to 20%, above the historical average. Is the market underestimating the risk? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Forecasts for S&P 500 Earnings and Returns Goldman Sachs sees the S&P 500 climbing to 8,700 over the next 12 months, a 14% gain. Earnings growth, not multiple expansion, is expected to drive the advance. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Trailing 4-Quarter Net Equity Demand Household buying has stayed strong, more than offsetting weaker corporate demand for U.S. equities. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Index and Technical Score The S&P 500’s technical reading eased to 53.53, back to neutral territory. A rally is still possible, but a sharper pullback could open the door to further losses. Until sentiment turns, caution remains the better call. Image: Real Investment Advice

S&P 500 vs. G10 Excess Liquidity Leading Indicator G10 excess liquidity remains negative, leaving U.S. stocks without a crucial source of support over the next three to six months. That’s unlikely to change unless monetary policy eases or animal spirits return. Image: Bloomberg