Probability of S&P 500 Drawdown / Rally The rally has made U.S. equities a tougher trade. Upside now looks constrained, while the risk of a pullback is growing amid stretched valuations and a weakening macro backdrop. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Index Performance in Year +1 After Three Consecutive >=+20% Gains Following a powerful two-year run, the S&P 500 could bottom in the fall as markets test the new Fed chair, before pushing toward 7,700 by year-end as fundamentals improve. Image: Fundstrat
U.S. Equity Valuation Metrics (Z-Score Since 1900) After the recent surge, U.S. stocks are firmly out of bargain territory. Most valuation gauges are stretched, sitting more than two standard deviations above historical norms. “Cheap” is not part of the current narrative. Image: The Daily Shot
AAII Sentiment Survey Market highs are easing skepticism, with the AAII survey showing a strong surge in bullish sentiment. U.S. retail investors are turning optimistic again, pushing the bull-bear spread back into positive territory. Image: The Daily Chartbook
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment At 94.15, the NAAIM Exposure Index signals aggressive bullish positioning among active managers, reflecting rising conviction in the U.S. equity outlook. For now, momentum remains firmly on the bulls’ side. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by…
S&P 500 Technical Composite A composite of technical breadth measures points to an overheated S&P 500, increasing the likelihood of a short-term pullback as much of the recent optimism is already priced in. Some cooling could be healthy here. Image: MarketDesk Research
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Markets are tilting toward a steady growth outlook. Relative returns between cyclical and defensive stocks imply about 1.9% U.S. real GDP growth, broadly in line with Goldman Sachs’ forward 4Q GDP growth forecast. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bitcoin and Software Bitcoin has moved largely in step with software stocks in recent years, echoing broader swings in risk appetite and investor sentiment. That correlation is coming back into focus as speculative momentum builds. Image: Topdown Charts
S&P 500 Returns Following Major Geopolitical Events History shows the same script in over 20 major events since WWII: markets snap back quicker than feared, and those who hold their nerve often win. Panic usually hurts more than the shock itself. Image: Real Investment Advice
Distribution of S&P 500 Annual Returns Since 1928, double-digit annual losses in the S&P 500 have been the exception, not the rule, occurring only 12 times. Today, with record earnings, elevated margins, and sustained AI spending, momentum continues to favor higher prices. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Quarterly Net Profit Margin (ex. Financials & Utilities) Profits across corporate America are running hot, and with margins set to widen into 2026, the bullish narrative keeps gaining traction. The momentum is hard to ignore, but margins do not expand forever. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research