Discretionary vs. Systematic Equity Positioning Systematic strategies are in the 72nd percentile versus 60th for discretionary investors, a divergence that points to a market that is not yet overcrowded and could push further. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Consolidated Equity Positioning At the 66th percentile, consolidated equity positioning is moderately overweight but still far from crowded, keeping the path open for further upside. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Daily Percentage Change in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) fell 10.26% last Friday, its sharpest decline since March 2020. The long-term story remains intact, but expectations had clearly overheated. Image: Deutsche Bank
MSCI AC World EPS Analysts are steadily raising MSCI AC World EPS estimates for 2026 and 2027, betting the AI and tech surge will boost margins and profits instead of fueling another round of excess spending. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equity Market Speculative Trading Indicator Animal spirits are building, but not yet overheating. Retail activity and Goldman Sachs’s Speculative Trading Indicator are firm, still short of past cycle peaks. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Performance of S&P 500 Megacap Growth Stocks vs. Rest of S&P 500 Mega-cap growth and tech stocks relative to the S&P 500 were hovering near the top of a decade-long trend channel. The latest pullback suggests a familiar unwind of stretched positioning, not a break in regime. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Short Interest as % of Market Capitalization S&P 500 Median Short interest in the median S&P 500 stock sits at 3.2%, a relatively elevated level, but the rise appears driven by hedging activity rather than bearish conviction, offering little evidence of a market inflection point. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year The market is pricing in just an 11% chance of a US recession over the next year, while Goldman Sachs puts the odds closer to 25%, above the historical average. Is the market underpricing the risk? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Investor Sentiment – U.S. Market Greed/Fear Index The Greed and Fear Index is at 74.15, nearing extreme greed. The mood is still bullish, but gains may stall without a meaningful reset in sentiment. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Returns After >19% in Two Months Since the late-March lows, the S&P 500 has rallied more than 19%. In similar rebounds, stocks have typically pushed higher over one-, three-, six-, and twelve-month horizons, with average one-year gains above 41%! Image: Carson Investment Research
Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator sits near neutral at 0.2. Past instances at these levels have typically been followed by a 0.8% rise in the S&P 500 over the following month. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research