Earnings Growth – Mag 7 and S&P 500 ex-Mag 7 The Magnificent Seven are headed for 57% earnings growth this year, compared with 23% for the rest of the S&P 500. With tech still running hot, fading them feels like a losing bet. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Median Short Interest Across U.S. Stocks Since 2022, traders have gradually piled into bearish bets on U.S. stocks, leaving the market vulnerable to a sharp short squeeze if momentum turns. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Seasonality of the VIX Index Middle East tensions, surging oil prices, higher yields and a U.S. midterm election are all flashing warning signs, but 2026 has so far defied the usual seasonal jump in volatility. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. 10-Year Real Yield The rise in the U.S. 10-year real yield anchors valuations: it won’t drag prices lower if earnings keep surging, but it caps multiple expansion and raises the odds of P/E compression if growth disappoints. Image: J.P. Morgan
New York Fed GDP Nowcast The New York Fed’s latest estimate puts Q4 2026 GDP growth at 2.51%, keeping the U.S. expansion firmly on track. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of New YorkClick the Image to Enlarge
U.S. ISM Services Prices Paid Index vs. U.S. CPI Inflation (Leading Indicator) The ISM Services Prices Paid Index, which typically leads U.S. CPI by around three months, just surged to its highest level since 2022. Inflationary pressure is building in the pipeline. Image: Deutsche Bank
Carson Proprietary Leading Economic Index – USA Carson’s LEI shows the U.S. economy in good shape and recession risk fading, leaving bulls with room to stay bullish. Image: Carson Investment Research
Index Performance – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, Mag 7, S&P 600 Since October 2025, the Mag-7 has been a drag on U.S. indices, posting gains of less than 5% as June selling picked up on doubts over AI capex payoffs and a more hawkish Fed. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Around First Fed Rate Hikes vs. Speed of Hikes In fast tightening cycles, the S&P 500 typically struggles in the 12 months post-first hike; in slow or no cycles, it tends to rally. Near term, stocks stay shaky until investors believe in a “slow-hike” or “one-and-done” Fed. Image: Ned Davis Research
Forward P/E Ratio and Subsequent 5-Year Annualized Returns With U.S. equities still trading as if nothing can go wrong, the next five years are likely to deliver thinner returns. The businesses are outstanding, but price still matters. Overpay, and even the best stocks can disappoint. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at 1.46% YoY in August. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…