Fear & Greed Index – Investor Sentiment At 38 on the Fear & Greed Index, the market is in fear but not panic mode, which keeps the door open for a slow grind higher in U.S. stocks if news flow improves. Image: Cable News Network
U.S. Equity Valuation Metrics (Z-Score Since 1900) U.S. stocks are still priced richly, with most valuation metrics sitting more than two standard deviations above history. Cheap may be dead for now, but momentum could keep this bull market alive longer than many expect. Image: The Daily Shot
AAII Sentiment Survey U.S. retail bulls are losing some steam again. AAII sentiment weakened sharply, pushing the bull-bear spread below zero and keeping upside potential alive. Image: The Daily Chartbook
NAAIM Exposure Index – Investor Sentiment The NAAIM Exposure Index at 79.70 shows that active managers are still risk-on, with robust U.S. equity exposure and a bullish outlook. The National Association of Active Investment Managers Exposure Index represents the two-week moving average exposure to U.S. equity markets reported by NAAIM members. Image: NAAIM
S&P 500 Technical Composite A composite of technical breadth measures puts the S&P 500 close to oversold territory, opening the door to a reflex bounce. Image: MarketDesk Research
Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth Markets are pricing in steady growth, not a boom. The gap between cyclicals and defensives points to U.S. real GDP growth of about 2.0%, in line with Goldman Sachs’ forward 4Q GDP growth forecast. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Days per Year the S&P 500 Price and Breadth Moved in Opposite Directions Years like this, when the S&P 500 holds firm while breadth lags, have tended to come with a higher risk of volatility and pullbacks, even if they rarely offer precise timing. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Four-Year Cycle for 2026 After following the usual midterm-year playbook at the start of the year, the S&P 500 went off script in the spring and has since lost momentum, leaving more consolidation into the fall looking more likely. Image: Ned Davis Research
MSCI AC World EPS MSCI AC World EPS estimates for 2027 are still drifting higher, with analysts convinced that the AI‑fuelled tech surge will show up in margins instead of morphing into another overinvestment cycle. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consumer Staples Positioning Positioning in Consumer Staples is stuck in the 6th percentile, leaving investors heavily underweight. A modest change in sentiment could be enough to ignite a rebound. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Gold / T-Bills Total Return vs. T-Bill Real Yield Under the new Fed chair, gold faces near‑term headwinds and choppier price action, but the longer‑term picture still looks constructive if inflation remains sticky and real rates stay contained. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond