Effective Corporate Tax Rate Corporate tax rates have fallen since the 1980s in many markets, with little movement in the past few years. That tailwind has often translated into higher dividends and increased buybacks, reinforcing equity market performance. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Earnings Surprises of S&P 500 Companies Earnings season keeps sending the same message: corporate profits are still holding up. So far, 65% of S&P 500 companies have beaten Q2 estimates by at least one standard deviation, while just 6% have missed. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Brent Crude Oil Monthly Average Closing Price Under a high‑price stress scenario, Brent could climb past 120 dollars a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and still average close to 100 dollars through 2027 if flows through Hormuz remain disrupted. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield Are U.S. long-bond yields on the verge of breaking above their post-2007 ceiling? The level around 5% could give way if inflation stays sticky, demand for long-duration remains weak, or the Fed keeps policy tight. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
U.S. High Yield Index OAS The credit cycle usually rolls over before equities do. For now, credit is not buying the equity stress story. U.S. high-yield OAS sits near 270 bps, still a long way from the 800 bps that typically signals recession risk. Image: Real Investment Advice
Truck Tonnage vs. S&P 500 Index The Truck Tonnage Index rose 0.1% in June. Trucks represent 72.7% of U.S. freight and serve as a barometer of the U.S. economy. This chart shows that, historically, the U.S. stock market has tended to increase in line with the physical size and expansion of the U.S. economy (R²…
Valuation – U.S. Hyperscalers 12-Month Forward P/E U.S. hyperscalers are trading at decade-low valuations, tempting bargain hunters. But doubts about AI spending and when those returns will arrive are keeping buyers on the sidelines. Image: BCA Research
Contribution to S&P 500 EPS Growth S&P 500 earnings are riding a strong tailwind from booming energy profits and tight AI chip supply, with semiconductor stocks responsible for nearly half of Q2 2026 growth. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Inflation – WTI Crude Oil Inflation eased in June largely because oil and gasoline prices fell, but the recent rebound in oil prices means inflation pressures could re‑intensify over the coming months. Image: MarketDesk Research
Market-Implied Probability of a Recession Starting Within 1 Year and Market-Implied Probability of Being in a Recession At 12%, market-implied odds of a U.S. recession over the next year sit below their long-run average, leaving the risk backdrop relatively constructive. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Financials Group Positioning Financials have improved in positioning, but they still sit in the 23rd percentile, leaving room for more risk-taking. Fundamentals are steady, so the caution may still be a bit overdone. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation