Category: Blog

Hyperscalers Free Cash Flow AI spending is expected to keep hyperscalers free cash flow in the red through 2027, with a recovery in 2028. For now, the cash burn is the cost of staying in the race. Image: J.P. Morgan

S&P 500 and Combination of Forward PE, VIX, Bullish Sentiment The Euphoriameter, a composite of forward P/E, the VIX and bullish sentiment, is cooling but it’s still running hot. The danger is that one ugly headline could send today’s bulls running for the exits. Image: Topdown Charts

AAII Sentiment Survey U.S. retail investors remain on the defensive. The AAII bull-bear spread’s 52-week moving average has been negative for 72 consecutive weeks, even as the S&P 500 has gained 29% over the same period. Image: The Daily Chartbook

Real 10-Year Treasury Yield vs. S&P 500 Forward P/E Rising real yields have compressed the S&P 500’s multiple. If bond yields hold near current levels, stocks could keep climbing higher. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. 10-Year Real Yield The U.S. 10-year real yield is well above its 1.6% average since 1990. Rising earnings may keep stocks from falling, but higher real yields are limiting multiple expansion and leave valuations exposed if growth disappoints. Image: Real Investment Advice

Equity Market Concentration – Market Capitalization of 10 Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total The S&P 500 has become top-heavy. Its 10 largest stocks now account for 40% of the index and 37% of its earnings, leaving the benchmark increasingly at the mercy of a few companies. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

MSCI AC World EPS Earnings are holding up, and analysts still see room to lift estimates. The Street is betting AI can boost margins without sending capex soaring. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Gold and Copper Prices Goldman Sachs is sticking to its $5,400 gold forecast for the end of 2027. Rising demand and tight supply are keeping the upside case alive for gold and copper. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 11.4%, leaving the expansion narrative firmly in play. For now, the cycle still has legs. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland

Valuations – 12-Month Forward P/E Ranges (MSCI Regions) U.S. and global stocks remain expensive. But with earnings still climbing and companies beating expectations, that premium looks less like a red flag and more like the cost of staying invested. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Real World Tokenized Assets Tokenized real-world assets are finally gaining traction, but their share of the more than $100 trillion U.S. investable asset universe remains negligible. Adoption is only just getting started. Image: Deutsche Bank