Average S&P 500 Performance Midterm years typically bring a bumpy start to the second half for the S&P 500, with sellers gaining traction into October as summer ends. Post-election, the market has a habit of strengthening, regardless of who wins. Image: Deutsche Bank
MSCI World Index and U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield When bond yields climb, equities often take a hit or simply lose momentum. The pattern is familiar: P/E multiples stall and money rotates out of long‑duration growth stocks, even though the rally isn’t dead. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Quarterly EPS Seasonally Adjusted S&P 500 earnings are running 14% above their nine‑decade trend. Can profits stay this far ahead of history? If they drift back toward the mean, today’s rich multiples could lose their support faster than investors think. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. Dollar Net Positioning U.S. dollar positioning remains stretched. Historically, a softer greenback has typically lifted stocks and added fuel to equity rallies. Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S. Equity Risk Indicator and S&P 500 The U.S. Equity Risk Indicator is flashing red, warning that the S&P 500 may be running hot. History shows that once this metric hits extreme levels, significant equity drawdowns often follow. Image: BCA Research
Gold Net Speculative Positioning Speculative positioning in gold has reversed sharply in recent weeks. Goldman Sachs still sees prices reaching $4,900 an ounce by the end of 2026. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Seasonality – S&P 500 Cycle Composite for 2026 The S&P 500 Cycle Composite still argues for a constructive 2026. The early-year correction suggests the market has already digested much of the typical midterm election weakness. Image: Ned Davis Research
S&P 500 Intra-Year Declines vs. Calendar Year Returns The S&P 500 typically gives back about 14% at some point each year. Investors hate it, but they also got rewarded: the index closed higher in 35 of the last 46 years. That’s the price of long-term gains. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Mega-Cap Growth and Large-Cap Tech Positioning Positioning in mega-cap growth and large-cap Tech has pulled back from the highs but is still overweight, now sitting in the 66th percentile. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio – Average Real Returns Over the Following 10 Years, by Starting CAPE With the CAPE ratio now above 40, the setup for the next decade looks grim. In past episodes at the current level, US equities went on to deliver negative real returns, averaging roughly −2.6% a year. Image: Real…
S&P 500 Index Performance After The First Fed Rate Hike Historically, the S&P 500 has weathered the Fed’s first rate hike better than investors might expect. Following an initial 25 bp move, the index often stumbles early but, in every cycle since 1990, has been higher a year later. Image: Carson Investment Research