Survey – Where Do You Expect the S&P 500 Index to Be in the Next 12 Months? Half of BCA’s clients see the S&P 500 up 10% or more over the next year, backed by AI-fueled earnings, light corporate leverage and good-old FOMO. Just 13% brace for a double-digit drop. Image: BCA Research
Bond Volatility – MOVE Index Stocks remain sensitive to every move in yields, but falling rate volatility could clear a path higher for the S&P 500, even with interest rates still elevated. Image: The Daily Shot
U.S.-Listed Spot-Gold ETF Weekly Flows Gold ETFs are back in favor, with money flowing in again as retail demand firms, central banks keep buying, and the macro backdrop turns more supportive. Image: Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities
Largest Contributors to the YTD Change in NTM EPS for MSCI AC World Most of the Technology sector’s positive earnings revisions have come from its more cyclical areas, particularly semiconductors and related hardware. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Household Equity Ownership by Wealth Percentile Call it the American Dream or a widening divide. The top 1% now hold about half of U.S. market wealth. The bottom half? Just 1%. The gap has been widening since 1990, and frustration is rising with it. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bitcoin and Software Bitcoin has largely tracked software stocks in recent years. The reset earlier this year has turned into a rebound, and both have cleared near-term resistance to establish short-term uptrends.. Image: Topdown Charts
Cumulative Bull vs. Bear Markets (Points) Bear markets don’t just trim gains. They can erase most of the inflation-adjusted upside from an entire bull run. Which is why a late-cycle drop is never just noise. Image: Real Investment Advice
Percent of S&P 500 Stocks with Dividends > 10-Year Treasury Yield The income trade has reversed. In July 2016, 63.4% of S&P 500 stocks yielded more than the 10-year U.S. Treasury. Today, fewer than 4.5% do, leaving Treasuries with higher yields than almost every blue-chip stock. Image: Ned Davis Research
S&P 500 Price Rebased to Sept 1 = 100 of Each Midterm Years Midterm years tend to weigh on stocks, and September deserves extra care. Since WWII, the S&P 500 has fallen an average of 1.5% from Sept. 1 to its low, which tends to arrive in early October. Image: BCA Research
Volatility – VIX Index Average Summer calm often gives way to autumn volatility. Are markets braced for a rougher ride ahead? Image: Bloomberg
AAII Asset Allocation U.S. retail investors turned more optimistic into August, lifting their stock allocation to a year-to-date high of 71.1%. For this crowd, it’s a vote of confidence in equities. Image: Daily Chartbook