Interest Rates – Implied Fed Funds Target Rate The Fed is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points today, but projections for 2025 indicate a more gradual easing strategy, aiming to boost the economy while keeping inflation in check. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Returns After Long Streaks of More Decliners than Advancers Bulls have reason for optimism: since 1990, after long streaks of more decliners than advancers, the S&P 500 has been positive 87.5% of the time over the following 12 months, with an average gain of 14.8%. Image: Carson Investment Research
High-Yield Bond Returns 2024 has proven to be a terrific year for low-quality high yield investments, particularly within the CCC-rated cohort, which has seen returns exceeding 16%, as economic resilience exceeded expectations. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
U.S. Rates – Treasury Yield Forecasts Deutsche Bank forecasts the 10-year UST yield at 4.65% by year-end 2025, driven by potential increased tariffs, fiscal easing and deregulation, which may lead to stronger economic growth and higher inflation. Image: Deutsche Bank
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day With the S&P 500 hitting record highs, it’s time for a mass bear deportation—after all, they clearly missed the memo that this party is strictly bull-only! Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎
Fed Funds Futures The market has scaled back its outlook for Fed rate cuts in 2025, with current projections showing three cuts, down from earlier forecasts. Image: Bloomberg
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Bulls are as excited as a dog with a new bone, likely because they’ve just realized that the last two weeks of December are a jackpot for U.S. equities! Have a Great Week, Everyone! 😎
S&P 500 Index Performance by Year of Decade Bulls are smiling again, as years ending in 5 have historically been the most favorable for the S&P 500 index, with gains occurring 92.3% of the time and a median return of 26.3% since 1885. Image: Ned Davis Research
S&P 500 Performance for All Republican Terms In Republican presidential terms, the S&P 500 tends to perform worse in the second half of the first year than in the first half, as policy impacts and economic realities set in. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
DM Economies Real GDP and Working Age Population CAGR The working-age population plays a pivotal role in driving economic growth and productivity. However, many developed nations face a projected decline in this demographic, potentially hindering their economic prospects. Image: Deutsche Bank
Inflation – U.S. Core PCE and Forecasts U.S. core PCE inflation is expected to have decelerated significantly in November, reinforcing expectations that the Fed’s monetary policy is effectively controlling inflation. Image: Nomura