Category: Blog

S&P 500 Performance vs. Forward EPS While long-term earnings are essential for driving stock prices over time, the influence of rising long-term yields cannot be overlooked. Image: Evercore ISI

Cumulative Flows from Global Investors into DM and EM funds In 2024, equity funds in developed and emerging markets have experienced substantial inflows from global investors, reflecting a resurgence of confidence in the market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Average Performance on Major Geopolitical Events Investors regard gold as both a hedge against inflation and a strategic asset during geopolitical uncertainty, having proven to be the most effective safeguard against major geopolitical events since 1973. Image: Alpine Macro

ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day While bears are busy counting their losses, those who dared to ride the S&P 500 wave are enjoying a hefty 26.9% return YTD, including dividends! It’s safe to say that this bull market is no joke—unless you’re a bear! Have a Great Week, Everyone! 😎

Bonds Flows Since January 2024, there has been a notable trend of strong inflows into bond ETFs, particularly high-yield bonds, driven by favorable yield conditions and an overall “risk-on” sentiment in the market. Image: J.P. Morgan

U.S. Stocks Returns during Year One of a President’s Second Term The performance of U.S. stocks during the first year of a second presidential term has shown mixed results historically, but recent trends suggest a more favorable outlook. Image: Carson Investment Research

S&P 500 Fwd. Earnings Growth and Russell 2000 Fwd. Earnings Growth The recovery in EPS growth has been driven by a small number of large-cap companies, which may indicate a late-cycle extension in the economic cycle. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

Market-Implied Probability of U.S. CPI Inflation Over the Next 5 Years Market pricing indicates a substantial likelihood that future U.S. headline CPI inflation rates will exceed 3%, with a 33% probability over the next five years. Image: Goldman Sachs

Return – Dow Jones U.S. Thematic Market Neutral Momentum Index With a remarkable 31% return in 2024, momentum investing has emerged as a standout equity strategy, poised for its best year since 2002. Image: Bloomberg

S&P 500 Returns After a 1% or Greater Return on the First Day of the Santa Claus Rally Bulls are excited! Since 1969, each time the S&P 500 has gained 1% or more on the first day of the Santa Claus Rally, it has been positive 100% of the time during the full rally period,…

Contribution to Annual S&P 500 Return The ten largest stocks in the S&P 500 have significantly influenced its performance in recent years, driving returns while raising important questions about the risks associated with market concentration. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research