Inflation – U.S. Core PCE and Forecasts U.S. core PCE inflation is expected to have decelerated significantly in November, reinforcing expectations that the Fed’s monetary policy is effectively controlling inflation. Image: Nomura
U.S. 10Y-3M Yield Curve For the first time since 2022, yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury notes have surpassed those of three-month bills, indicating a potentially positive outlook for U.S. stocks, particularly when a recession is avoided. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Price Target Morgan Stanley’s bull case scenario predicts the S&P 500 could reach 7,400 by the end of 2025, representing significant gains from current levels. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Instances S&P 500 Annual Return >=+20% for Two Consecutives Years The S&P 500 rarely experiences back-to-back annual returns of 20% or more, but when it does, the following year tends to see a strong first half and a weaker second half. Image: Fundstrat Global Advisors, LLC
Spread of Nasdaq-100 Earnings Yield Over 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Investing in the Nasdaq 100 presents both opportunities and risks, particularly in the current economic climate characterized by high bond yields and stock market exuberance. Image: Bloomberg
One Year S&P 500 Returns Post the Election Date Since 1960, the S&P 500 has shown a tendency for positive returns in the year following U.S. elections—proving that while politicians may change, the stock market still prefers to keep its party hat on! Image: Societe Generale Cross Asset Research
U.S. Consumers – Stock Prices and Income Expectations U.S. consumers are experiencing a notable rise in optimism regarding stock market returns for the next 12 months, but this may lead to disappointment as their outlook on income growth does not reflect the same enthusiasm. Image: Deutsche Bank
Median Real Net Worth by U.S. Income Quantiles Recovering 2007 levels of median real net worth across all U.S. income quantiles took 15 years—a remarkably long time. Image: Deutsche Bank
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day If bears are feeling sick about the S&P 500’s record highs, they should try some bullish medicine! Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎
Valuation Metrics S&P 500 valuation metrics remain elevated by historical standards, raising concerns about potential market overvaluation. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Bulls are celebrating like it’s 1999 again, but this time with stronger earnings and fewer illusions! It’s already Wednesday, Happy “Hump” Day, Everyone! 🐫🐪😎