Category: Blog

ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day While Donald Trump has won the election, the real “winner” appears to be the U.S. deficit, which is set to grow substantially in the coming years. Have a Great Week, Everyone! 😎

S&P 500 Performance by President While the S&P 500 has generally trended upward under both Democratic and Republican administrations, average gains have historically been higher during Democratic presidencies. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Macro Research

Interest Rates – Fed Funds Futures Curve After the Federal Reserve’s recent meeting, the slope of the fed funds futures curve has increased slightly, indicating a shift in market expectations regarding future interest rate movements. Image: The Daily Shot

CEO Business Confidence Expectations for Economy The current landscape suggests a cautious yet optimistic outlook among CEOs, which could lead to increased economic activity and investment as businesses prepare for potential growth. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

VIX Indexed to Election Day Equity implied volatility typically increases leading up to U.S. presidential elections and decreases afterward, mirroring the market’s reaction to political uncertainty and its resolution. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Percentage Change in S&P 500 in Previous Bull Markets The current bull market appears to be in its early stages, with historical data supporting the potential for significant gains in the coming months and years. Image: Bloomberg

Estimated Earnings Impact of 1pp Change in Statutory Tax Rate A one percentage point change in the corporate tax rate can have a measurable impact on U.S. corporate earnings, with small companies often feeling the effects more acutely than their larger counterparts. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Consensus Quarterly Earnings Actual and Consensus Estimates Despite a promising earnings outlook that could sustain market strength, investors would be wise to consider potential risks and already stretched market valuations. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

U.S. IPO Market The GS IPO Issuance Barometer, which shows improvement, suggests that the U.S. IPO market could be ready for a robust recovery in 2025 after several years of decreased activity. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Consecutive Presidential Elections Where the Incumbent Party in the White House Is Defeated For the first time since the late 1800s, the incumbent party has lost three consecutive presidential elections. Politicians are unable to deliver against expectations in a world of lower growth and fairly regular shocks. Image: Deutsche Bank

Federal Funds Target Rate While the Fed has begun easing monetary policy, the current federal funds rate remains notably above their estimated neutral rate, with plans for further gradual reductions to bring it closer to neutral over time. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research