Category: Blog

Implied Fed Funds Target Rate The Fed has revised its 2025 projections, now anticipating only two rate cuts instead of four, with future reductions dependent on the progress made in managing inflation. Image: Bloomberg

ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day With Bitcoin surpassing $100,000, bears are now on dating apps looking for a bull! Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎

S&P 500 Performance After Fed Cuts Within 2% of All-Time Highs Bulls rejoice! Since 1980, when the S&P 500 was within 2% of its all-time high during a Fed rate cut, it has been positive 100% of the time over the following 12 months, with an average gain of 13.9%. Image: Carson Investment Research

S&P 500 2025 Year-End Target While most strategists project a bullish 2025 for the S&P 500, a notable minority advocates for caution. This divergence in opinion could comfort investors wary of market euphoria. Image: BCA Research

Commodities (Oil, Gold, Copper) – Commodity Net Long Positioning While there are some pressures from rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar, the current landscape for gold positioning is marked by a robust bullish sentiment, with increasing net long positions. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Interest Rates – Implied Fed Funds Target Rate The Fed is likely to cut rates by 25 basis points today, but projections for 2025 indicate a more gradual easing strategy, aiming to boost the economy while keeping inflation in check. Image: Bloomberg

S&P 500 Returns After Long Streaks of More Decliners than Advancers Bulls have reason for optimism: since 1990, after long streaks of more decliners than advancers, the S&P 500 has been positive 87.5% of the time over the following 12 months, with an average gain of 14.8%. Image: Carson Investment Research

High-Yield Bond Returns 2024 has proven to be a terrific year for low-quality high yield investments, particularly within the CCC-rated cohort, which has seen returns exceeding 16%, as economic resilience exceeded expectations. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

U.S. Rates – Treasury Yield Forecasts Deutsche Bank forecasts the 10-year UST yield at 4.65% by year-end 2025, driven by potential increased tariffs, fiscal easing and deregulation, which may lead to stronger economic growth and higher inflation. Image: Deutsche Bank

ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day With the S&P 500 hitting record highs, it’s time for a mass bear deportation—after all, they clearly missed the memo that this party is strictly bull-only! Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎

Fed Funds Futures The market has scaled back its outlook for Fed rate cuts in 2025, with current projections showing three cuts, down from earlier forecasts. Image: Bloomberg