Sahm Rule Recession Indicator – U.S. Unemployment Rate A drop in the Sahm Rule indicator below 0.5 is a positive sign, as it suggests the rule is not currently signaling a U.S. recession—a generally reassuring indicator for economic health. Image: Bloomberg
Sentiment – Risk Appetite and Expected U.S. Equity Market Performance U.S. equity investors remain highly risk-averse in June 2025, with bearish short-term return expectations, largely driven by political and macroeconomic uncertainties. Image: S&P Global Market Intelligence
Federal Reserve Broad Real Effective Trade-Weighted Dollar Both historical trends and current economic indicators suggest that the U.S. dollar is entering a period of decline. Structural fiscal challenges, policy uncertainty, and cyclical patterns all point to further weakness ahead. Image: Bloomberg
Interest Rates – Market Pricing for the Number of Fed Rate Cuts Investors should expect only one 25bps Fed rate cut for the remainder of 2025, most likely in September, unless there is a significant deterioration in economic data or a sharp rise in unemployment. Image: The Daily Shot
S&P 500 Returns – Strong vs. Weak Periods U.S. stock market returns do tend to be weaker on average during the summer months (May–October) compared to the winter months (November–April). However, investors should consider seasonality as a tendency rather than a rule. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Bull Markets Over the past five decades, five bull markets have lasted over two years, averaging 8 years and gaining 288%. Since the current bull market is just 32 months old and has risen 68%, it may still have plenty of room to grow. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 2025 Year-End Forecasts Wall Street’s S&P 500 forecasts for year-end 2025 have not fully recovered from the recent tariff turmoil. The average outlook has become more cautious, with a wide spread between optimistic and pessimistic projections. Image: Yahoo Finance
U.S. Airplane Traffic and Economic Growth A year-over-year decline in U.S. air passenger traffic is a reliable early warning of economic trouble. When uncertainty rises, people and businesses tend to defer travel, which usually bodes poorly for overall economic growth. Image: TS Lombard
Small Cap Equity Positioning With small-cap equity allocations at the 23rd percentile, there is considerable room for increased exposure—especially for investors focused on long-term growth. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Cumulative Global Sector Fund Flows While the technology sector has recorded strong inflows over the past year due to rapid artificial intelligence adoption and expansion, the energy sector has faced outflows. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 After Two Month Gains of 20% or More More good news for bulls: Historically, after a two-month gain of over 20%, the S&P 500 has never been lower 1, 3, 6, or 12 months later. In fact, one year after such rallies, it has averaged gains of over 30%. Image: Carson Investment Research