Investor Psychology Cycle When panic hits, markets overshoot to the downside, creating opportunities for contrarians to buy into peak fear. The mirror image? Euphoria, which usually sets up the exit. Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Heavy Truck Sales and Recessions (Leading Indicator) U.S. heavy truck sales fell in July to 437K (annualized). Before recessions, heavy trucks sales tend to peak and then decline, providing insights into the overall health of the U.S. economy as a leading economic indicator. Click the Image to Enlarge
Magnificent Seven Minus S&P 500 ex Magnificent Seven EPS Growth After years of leading, the Magnificent Seven’s EPS growth has cooled to the point where the rest of the S&P 500 is now growing faster, reversing the 2023–2025 dynamic. Image: J.P. Morgan
FX Impact from AI Disruption to Services As AI pushes the marginal cost of cognitive work lower, the UK stands out: its services-heavy economy leaves sterling the most exposed to disruption. Image: Deutsche Bank
Equity Risk Premium In the U.S., the equity risk premium has shrunk to the point where stocks barely compensate investors for taking risk over bonds. That weakens the bull case for equities and sets the stage for more disappointment. Image: The Daily Shot
Systematic Strategies Equity Positioning vs. S&P 500 Realized Volatility Systematic strategies sit in the 76th percentile and stay overweight. By itself, that’s not a top signal or a warning of an imminent selloff. Positioning can stay elevated as long as the bull market keeps momentum. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Change in Consensus 2026 S&P 500 EPS S&P 500 EPS forecasts for 2026 surged, with upward revisions accelerating after the U.S.–Iran conflict erupted, even as geopolitical and macro risks climbed. Image: Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities
$100,000 over 30 Years: The Fund vs. The Average Investor U.S. funds returned an annualized 8.2%, but the average investor earned only about 7.0%. Much of the gap came from poor timing: buying after prices had risen and selling after they fell. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Sectors Announced Buybacks (Last 3 Months) Over the past three months, buyback announcements have been led by Financials, Tech and Industrials, which together make up most of the repurchase activity in U.S. equities. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Probability of U.S. Recession Calculated from the Yield Curve The probability of U.S. recession in 12 months, calculated from the yield curve, stands at 12.3%, leaving the expansion narrative firmly in play. For now, the cycle still has legs. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland
S&P 500 Implied Correlation The S&P 500 may be rising as a whole, but individual stocks are telling very different stories. As correlations fade, fundamentals are starting to matter again. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research