S&P 500 – Length of Bull Markets and When They Started Born in October 2022, this bull market is now four years old. Bulls are smiling: over the past 50 years, every bull market to reach this age lasted at least five years, with an average ultimate length of eight years. Image: Carson Investment Research
Sentiment Indicator and Stock Positioning Goldman Sachs’ U.S. Equity Sentiment Indicator has slipped to -1.3. Historically, similar readings have been followed by an average 2.0% gain for the S&P 500 over the next month. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 vs. Its Seasonal Pattern The equal-weighted S&P 500 has followed the seasonal script closely, rebounding from its lows almost in step with the S&P 500’s typical pattern. Seasonality is now a tailwind for U.S. stocks into year-end. Image: Topdown Charts
MCG & Tech vs. The Rest Earnings Growth Tech earnings are expected to surge in the third quarter, but even that may not be enough to lift the sector in the near term. Earnings expectations are far lower across the rest of the S&P 500. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Investor Psychology Cycle Panic can push markets too far, too fast, creating opportunities for contrarians willing to buy when fear peaks. Euphoria is the other side of the trade, and often signals that it’s time to sell. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Yearly Performance During Bull Markets Age alone is no reason to call time on a bull market. Bull markets that reach year four have more often than not delivered another strong year, averaging 18.9% and giving bulls a new reason to smile. Image: Carson Investment Research
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at 0.61% YoY in September. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…
Earnings Sentiment – S&P 500, STOXX 600, Topix, MSCI EM Analysts have raised their S&P 500 earnings outlook in recent weeks, with resilient profits lifting market sentiment. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Semiconductors: Earnings Growth vs. Prices AI demand remained robust in Q3, with several indicators pointing to more upside. Deutsche Bank expects the tailwind to boost earnings across mega-cap growth and technology stocks. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Up 10% to 20% YTD at the End of September History is giving the bulls a reason to stay optimistic. When the S&P 500 is up 10% to 20% by late September, it has finished the quarter higher 86% of the time, with an average gain of 5.3%. Image: Real Investment Advice
Performance Based on Congress Makeup – Average S&P 500 Annual Return Since 1951, U.S. stocks have averaged annual gains of 13.7% under a Republican president and 17% under a Democratic president when Congress was divided. Investors have welcomed the gridlock, which keeps sweeping policy shifts in check. Image: Carson Investment Research