Average Gold Returns After Trading Certain Distances from 200-Day Moving Average Gold is currently 15% above the 200-day moving average, suggesting short-term bullish sentiment. However, historical trends indicate that investors should brace for potentially flat returns in the following 1 to 6 months after such extremes. Image: BofA Global Research
Central Bank Gold Holdings Despite a significant gold price rally, private investors have largely been absent, especially compared to the aggressive purchases made by central banks. Image: Alpine Macro
U.S. Domiciled Mutual Funds While U.S. money market holdings remain historically low, equity allocations are high, reflecting a significant shift in investor behavior towards riskier assets in pursuit of higher returns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Percent of 10 Yield Curves Inverted Historically, inverted yield curves have successfully anticipated every recession in the United States, highlighting their importance as an economic indicator. Will this time be an exception? Image: Real Investment Advice
% of Days per Year to Make a New All-Time High for the S&P 500 The S&P 500’s performance this year reflects a strong bullish trend, with over one-fifth of trading days achieving new all-time highs, underscoring a favorable market environment. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 and S&P 500 Cumulative Net Up Volume Recent upside breakouts in S&P 500 cumulative net up volume, along with other bullish indicators, suggest that the S&P 500 may continue to reach new highs, indicating a robust market environment. Image: BofA Global Research
Sentiment – Global Equity Risk-Love The Global Equity Risk-Love indicator, currently at the 68th percentile, has moved out of the euphoria territory, allowing for potential upside as we approach year-end. Image: BofA Predictive Analytics
U.S. Recessions – 6-Month Fed Funds Minus Current Fed Funds Rate Historically, U.S. recessions have often followed periods of bearish short-term interest rates, particularly when the Fed cuts rates in response to economic downturns or signs of slowing growth. Image: BofA Research Investment Committee
U.S. Unemployment Rate The U.S. “job plentiful” index has experienced a significant decline, reaching its lowest level since 2017, which could signal broader economic challenges ahead. Image: Deutsche Bank
Valuation – Real S&P 500 % Deviation from Exponential Growth Trend While the S&P 500’s long-term growth potential remains intact, current valuations suggest that a return to mean levels is not only possible but likely in the future. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Monthly New Highs per Month Since 1950, the S&P 500 has achieved 1,314 new all-time highs, highlighting its ability to rebound from market declines and continue its growth trajectory. Such growth periods often lead to clusters of new highs. Image: Carson Investment Research