Estimated Earnings Impact of 1pp Change in Statutory Tax Rate A one percentage point change in the corporate tax rate can have a measurable impact on U.S. corporate earnings, with small companies often feeling the effects more acutely than their larger counterparts. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. IPO Market The GS IPO Issuance Barometer, which shows improvement, suggests that the U.S. IPO market could be ready for a robust recovery in 2025 after several years of decreased activity. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Consecutive Presidential Elections Where the Incumbent Party in the White House Is Defeated For the first time since the late 1800s, the incumbent party has lost three consecutive presidential elections. Politicians are unable to deliver against expectations in a world of lower growth and fairly regular shocks. Image: Deutsche Bank
Federal Funds Target Rate While the Fed has begun easing monetary policy, the current federal funds rate remains notably above their estimated neutral rate, with plans for further gradual reductions to bring it closer to neutral over time. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Dollar – Overall Weighted Valuations Ranked The U.S. dollar is considered the second most overvalued liquid currency globally, based on three valuation metrics: Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), Behavioral Equilibrium Exchange Rate (BEER), and Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate (FEER). Image: Deutsche Bank
30-Year U.S. Treasury Yields Around Presidential Election Dates Historically, 30-year U.S. Treasury yields have tended to rise after Republican victories and fall after Democratic victories, reflecting market perceptions of each party’s economic policies. Image: Deutsche Bank
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day – U.S. Presidential Election 2024 – Have a Great Day, Everyone! 😎
S&P 500 Returns When Up >17.5% After the First 10 Months of Year Historically, when the S&P 500 has been up more than 17.5% year-to-date going into November, the final two months of the year have never seen a decline, with an average gain of 6%. Image: Carson Investment Research
Gold and U.S. 10-Year Real Rates Gold prices typically exhibit an inverse relationship with U.S. real interest rates, as investors often shift their holdings between gold and interest-bearing assets based on the opportunity cost of owning the precious metal. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
S&P 500 Returns After the Election The U.S. stock market has shown a notable tendency to perform well following presidential elections. In fact, after the last ten elections, stocks have increased in value nine times, with a median gain of 17.2% one year later. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 Around U.S. Election Date Following the 2020 presidential election, the U.S. stock market exhibited robust growth. Can investors expect a similar trend after the 2024 election? Image: Deutsche Bank