GWIM 4-Week ETF Flows as % of AUM BofA’s private clients have been buying municipals, dividend, utilities ETFs, and selling energy, EM debt, low-vol ETFs over the past four weeks. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
S&P 500 EPS – Potential U.S. Tax Impact on Earnings Per Share Donald Trump’s plan to cut the U.S. corporate tax rate from 21% to 15% could significantly impact S&P 500 earnings per share, potentially increasing EPS by 4% and improving profitability for many companies in the index. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Ranked Cross Asset Returns by Year Gold’s remarkable performance in 2024 is largely due to strong central bank purchases, its established reputation as a safe haven during uncertain times, and its effectiveness as an inflation hedge. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy Click the Image to Enlarge
IG Bond Flows Investment-grade corporate bond funds continue to attract investors, resulting in the biggest 5-week inflow. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
China Equity Flows While the initial surge in inflows reflected optimism about China’s economic recovery, subsequent outflows highlight the fragility of market sentiment amidst ongoing economic challenges. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Tech Flows Tech funds experienced their largest outflow since June 2024, marking a significant shift for the sector that had previously enjoyed positive momentum. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Corporate Clients’ 4-Week Average Buybacks vs. S&P 500 Total Quarterly Buybacks BofA’s corporate clients are significantly increasing stock buybacks, defying recession fears and indicating a positive market outlook, suggesting these companies expect ongoing growth and stability in the future. Image: BofA Securities
FMS Investors – Biggest “Tail Risk” Concerns about geopolitical conflict have risen among FMS investors, with 33% now viewing it as the biggest “tail risk” for the global economy, primarily due to its potential negative impact on financial markets and investments. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
U.S. Money Market Fund Assets and Fed Funds Rate The current environment suggests that a substantial amount of capital is poised to flow back into equity markets, driven by expectations of favorable economic conditions and monetary policy adjustments. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Dow Theory – Dow Jones Industrial Average and Dow Jones Transportation Average Currently, the Dow Jones Transportation Average has not confirmed the recent highs of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is viewed as a bearish non-confirmation signal, indicating tactical risk in the market. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 and U.S. High Yield OAS The new cycle low in the U.S. high yield option-adjusted spread is seen as a promising signal for the S&P 500, supporting bullish expectations as we approach the end of the year. Image: BofA Global Research