Category: Blog

FMS Recession Expectations With economic indicators currently showing some resilience, is it unlikely that the global economy will experience a recession in the next 12 months? Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

Performance – Regional Banks vs. Large Banks Would investors be better served by focusing on quality large bank names rather than trying to find value in the regional banking sector at this time? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

U.S. Unemployment Rate Technical analysis suggests an upside risk to the U.S. unemployment rate in the second half of 2024, indicating potential challenges in sustaining job growth and stability in the labor market. Image: BofA Global Research

S&P 500 – Russell 2000 (Small Caps) Outperforms Russell 1000 (Large Caps) by 3% of More Historically, when small caps have outperformed large caps by 3% of more, the S&P 500 has been higher a year later in every instance, with an average gain of 32% since 1979. Image: Carson Investment Research

U.S. Inflation – Core PCE and Core CPI Inflation is trending downward towards the Fed’s 2% target, a crucial aspect of its monetary policy aimed at maintaining price stability and anchoring inflation expectations at a moderate level. Image: BofA Global Research

U.S. Large Cap Flows Investor interest in U.S. large-cap funds has surged in 2024, with inflows to these funds positioned to be the second largest on record. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Survey – Credit Investors: What Are Your Biggest Concerns? The 2024 U.S. election outcome could significantly impact fiscal policy, debt, interest rates, inflation, and economic growth, which are key concerns for U.S. credit investors. Image: BofA Credit Investor Survey

30-Year U.S. Treasury Total Return Index Over the past four years, 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds have experienced their worst loss in over a century, with a decline of 54% in total return. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Small Cap Stocks – Relationship Between Relative Fwd P/E of Russell 2000 vs. Russell 1000 and Subsequent 10-Year Annualized Relative Returns For long-term investors, periods when small-cap stocks are trading at a significant discount to large-cap stocks may offer attractive investment opportunities. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy

Sentiment – U.S. Put Call Ratio Composite A relatively low put/call ratio is often interpreted as a sign of heightened bullish sentiment or greed in the market, which is frequently viewed as a contrarian indicator. Image: The Daily Shot

Inflation – U.S. CPI Forecasts With inflation high, the Fed’s interest rate cut decisions require a delicate balance between price stability, economic expansion and employment support. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy