Category: Blog

Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E and U.S. 10-Year U.S. TIPS Yield The S&P 500 forward P/E multiple tends to be negatively impacted by higher real interest rates. Image: The Daily Shot

Time Series of S&P 500 Price, Forward EPS and Price to Forward EPS The S&P 500 has returned to its January 2022 level. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy

Recession – Percentage of U.S. Treasury Yield Curves Inverted The risk of a U.S. recession cannot be ruled out. Image: Charles Schwab

Healthcare Flows Inflows to healthcare are strong. Should investors consider sticking with healthcare funds? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Real S&P 500 and Real GDP The excesses of the U.S. stock market tend to correct themselves over time. Image: Real Investment Advice

PMI vs. Equity Risk Premium The divergence between the ISM PMI and the equity risk premium is significant. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

10-Year S&P 500 Total Excess Return Over U.S. Treasury Notes vs. CAPE When CAPE valuations exceed 30, long-term buy-and-hold investors can generally benefit more from purchasing 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds than U.S. stocks. Image: Real Investment Advice

Professional Forecasters Probability of Recession U.S. recession fears among professional forecasters remain elevated. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Inflation – U.S. 5-Year, 5-Year Forward Breakeven Rate U.S. bond market expectations for inflation are rising again, which is not good news. Image: The Daily Shot

S&P 500 GICs Level 1 Sector Weekly Relative Rotation Graph Will technology and discretionary stocks continue to lead? Image= BofA Global Research

Fed Funds Rate Less U.S. Core PCE Is the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy really restrictive in order to return inflation to 2%? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management