Indexed Return of Cyclicals vs. Defensives and Consensus Forward 4-Quarter U.S. GDP Growth The relative performance of cyclical stocks versus defensives currently signals market expectations for real U.S. GDP growth of 2%, below Goldman Sachs’ 2.6% forecast for 2026. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Price Targets If valuations stay where they are, the S&P 500 index could finish 2026 around 7,330, assuming a 26 times multiple on $282 in forward earnings. Image: Real Investment Advice
Gold Price Forecast Gold could glitter brighter in the years ahead, with Yardeni Research projecting a run to $6,000 by 2026 and $10,000 by 2030 on the back of deep fiscal deficits, money-printing excess, and mounting global tensions. Image: Yardeni Research
Russell 2000 Annual EPS Growth Analysts are betting big on 2026, forecasting a 60% surge in U.S. small-cap earnings, fueled by Fed easing, deregulation, and fiscal tailwinds. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Contribution to Annual S&P 500 Price Return In 2025, the S&P 500’s gains have come from earnings growth, not rising valuations. That’s a shift from 2023 and 2024, when richer multiples did most of the lifting. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Performance – Equities, Bonds and Commodities Equities have held up with surprising strength in 2025, buoyed by solid earnings, rapid AI growth, and easy monetary policy, leaving bonds and commodities trailing behind. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Decomposition of YTD Return in USD Global diversification paid off in 2025 as most major non‑U.S. markets outperformed U.S. equities. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
ISABELNET Cartoon of the Day Bears are wishing for gold this Christmas, chasing safety and inflation hedges, but bulls want just one thing under the tree: more stocks. Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas! 🎅🎄
The Santa Claus Rally – S&P 500 Index Returns A festive Santa Claus rally has often paved the way for a strong January and solid year ahead, leaving investors feeling like kids on Christmas Day! Image: Carson Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 Index Long-Term P/E Ratio The S&P 500’s long-term P/E ratio has surged to record highs, leaving investors with little buffer against bad news and making the market more vulnerable to economic or policy headwinds. Image: Bloomberg
Impact of U.S. Quarter-Over-Quarter Annualized GDP Growth Momentum looks set to build for the U.S. economy in 2026, driven by fading tariffs, fresh tax cuts, and easier financial conditions. Still, inflation remains the wildcard that could cloud an otherwise brighter growth outlook. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research