S&P 500 2025 Year-End Forecasts Wall Street’s S&P 500 2025 year-end projections have improved since tariff issues appeared more manageable, but wide disparities persist due to shifting trade policies and broader macroeconomic risks. Image: Yahoo Finance
Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year Goldman Sachs estimates a 30% chance of a U.S. recession within the next year, which is higher than the long-term historical average. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Indexed S&P 500 Return – Market Hours vs. Overnight The bulk of the S&P 500’s gains following Liberation Day have emerged during standard U.S. trading sessions, suggesting U.S. investors are more optimistic than their global counterparts or after-hours traders. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
GS Social Media Economic Sentiment Index Having rebounded from negative territory earlier this year, the GS Social Media Economic Sentiment Index recently surged to its highest level, indicating a significant positive shift in economic sentiment on social media. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance in August the Second Term of Post-Election Years August is often a weak month for the U.S. stock market during post-election years of second-term presidents, when their typically more difficult and less productive terms can erode investor confidence. Could this time be different? Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Year-End Target Oppenheimer projects strong gains for the S&P 500 supported by macroeconomic fundamentals, progress in trade deals, and structural technological shifts, with a year-end 2025 target of 7,100 points implying continued robust performance. Image: Bloomberg
Tariffs Impact on YoY U.S. GDP Growth Over the next three years, higher tariffs are expected to slow U.S. GDP growth by 1.7%, as they raise costs for consumers and businesses, fuel inflation, and drag on economic expansion. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Net Call Volume for the Most Shorted Stocks vs the Rest The recent rally in the most shorted stocks has been fueled by a surge in net call volumes, driven largely by retail investor enthusiasm and speculative options trading. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
EPS – GS Top-Down vs. Consensus Bottom-Up Estimates A 14% consensus EPS growth forecast for the S&P 500 next year may be plausible, but some analysts regard it as optimistic, awaiting further confirmation from corporate earnings and macroeconomic developments. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance After 63 Days Above the 20-Day Moving Average After closing above its 20-day moving average for 63 straight days, the S&P 500 has, in the past, continued to rise over the following 3 months, achieving median gains of 3.4% and positive returns every time. Image: Carson Investment Research
Performance of the Most Shorted Stocks vs the Russell 3000 The recent three-month period has been exceptionally strong for the most heavily shorted stocks outside the pandemic boom, driven significantly by retail investors and short squeeze dynamics. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation