Hyperscaler Capex U.S. hyperscaler capex is now expected to reach $799 billion this year, then rise to $1.068 trillion in 2027 and $1.301 trillion in 2028. This is starting to look less like a cycle than a structural reset. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Performance Since 2025 After spending two months stuck in a narrow range, the S&P 500 broke decisively higher during earnings season. Investors had been underpositioned for the strength of earnings and were now scrambling to catch up. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Realized and Consensus Hyperscaler Free Cash Flow Hyperscaler free cash flow is expected to remain negative through 2027 as AI spending accelerates, before recovering in 2028. For now, that cash burn is the price of keeping up in the AI race. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Quarterly Earnings Growth S&P 500 earnings growth is set to accelerate from 25% in Q1 to 34% in Q2, a pace rarely seen outside the early stages of an economic recovery. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Performance After ≥ 12% Over the First 150 Trading Days of the Year The S&P 500 has gained 12% or more in its first 150 trading days on 22 occasions since 1950. While 3-month returns tended to cool after such strong runs, performance usually improved over the following 6 to 12 months. Image:…
S&P 500 Trend Channel The sharp rally has brought the S&P 500 back to the bottom of its nearly four-year uptrend channel. If buyers defend the level, the rally could have further room to run. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Forward S&P 500 Returns After Prior Breakouts to New Highs Beat the Average Day Over the past ten years, when the S&P 500 has broken to a new high after at least two months without one, the 12‑month forward return has averaged 16.4%. Fear, in this case, has been a poor strategist. Image: Real Investment…
S&P 500 Index Max Pullback per Calendar Year March’s 9% pullback may already be the year’s deepest. If so, the market has less room for another major selloff. Back-to-back drawdowns of that size are rare, giving bulls a reason to stay optimistic. Image: Carson Investment Research
Global Monetary Policy Stimulus and Global Manufacturing PMI 2026 belonged to global growth, but the wind is turning. Inflation is firming, putting rate hikes back in play. The road into 2027 looks slower and bumpier. Image: Topdown Charts
Earnings Surprises of S&P 500 Companies Earnings season is repeating the same refrain: corporate profits are still resilient. 64% of S&P 500 companies have beaten Q2 estimates by at least one standard deviation, while only 8% have missed. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Annual vs. Intra-Year Returns Most years, the S&P 500 gives up 5% to 10%. With March’s double-digit drop already in the books, the next move lower may be more modest. Back-to-back big drawdowns don’t happen often. Image: Real Investment Advice