Seasonality – S&P 500 Index Returns in June The second half of June has a track record of frustrating equity bulls, with U.S. stocks often drifting lower. The bright spot is that we are now halfway through this typical June swoon. Image: Carson Investment Research
S&P 500 During The Dotcom Bubble Back at the start of the dotcom bust, U.S. tech stocks sold off while the rest of the market rose. If that pattern holds, the safest place to hide might still be in stocks, just not the same ones. Image: BCA Research
S&P 500 vs. G10 Excess Liquidity Leading Indicator As G10 excess liquidity remains in negative territory, the outlook for U.S. equities over the next six months darkens. When liquidity drains, stocks tend to feel it. Image: Bloomberg
Gold vs. Oil vs. Fed Pricing After moving opposite to oil in March and April, gold diverged in May and is now trading more in line with Fed rate expectations. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
Estimated U.S. Recession Probability The U.S.-Iran agreement has taken some tail risk off the table, with Goldman Sachs trimming its 12-month U.S. recession call to 15% from 25%, back at its long-term average. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Financial Conditions Index U.S. financial conditions have eased since March, pointing to a more growth‑friendly backdrop. Looser conditions typically give near‑term GDP a lift. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
Sectors Positioning (High Frequency) Positioning in mega-cap growth and tech sits near neutral, while cyclicals remain deeply underweight at the 8th percentile. It would not take much positive news to trigger a sharp reversal. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 and Speculators’ Net Positioning Speculators have turned increasingly bearish on U.S. equities. When net short positioning reaches these kinds of extremes, it has often set the stage for sharp short squeezes, a classic contrarian bullish signal. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 vs. U.S. 10-Year Bond Correlation Since the COVID-19 pandemic, equities and bonds have increasingly moved in tandem, especially during inflation spikes and rate hikes, weakening bonds’ traditional role as a diversifier. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Quality vs. Momentum Equities Since the March lows, momentum has taken the lead over quality, backed by strong earnings prints and positive price action. For now, investors are sticking with companies that deliver on both earnings and momentum. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Forecast of Gold Prices Goldman Sachs slashed its year-end gold forecast by $500 an ounce as expectations for Fed easing in 2026 faded. The new $4,900 December target still leaves room for second-half gains. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research