Valuation Percentile – Shiller P/E and U.S. 10-Year Yield The Shiller P/E says US equities are expensive. The 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield, by comparison, is back around its historical average. Is it time to favor bonds over equities? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Discretionary Investors Equity Positioning and ISM Manufacturing Discretionary investors remain underweight equities even as the ISM Manufacturing PMI stays solidly in expansion, leaving room to add risk. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Capex to Operating Cash Flow for U.S. and China Hyperscalers U.S. hyperscalers are on track to spend more than their operating cash flow in 2026, 2027 and 2028. The market’s question has shifted from “Can they fund it?” to “Will AI ever pay them back?” Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Systematic Strategies Equity Positioning vs. S&P 500 Realized Volatility Systematic strategies remain heavily overweight, with positioning in the 88th percentile. That alone is no immediate sell signal. Positioning can stay stretched as long as the bull market still has momentum. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Discretionary Positioning vs. Earning Growth Discretionary investors remain cautious despite strong earnings growth. But with estimates still moving higher and macro risks contained, cash may soon find its way into stocks. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
MSCI World Sector/Style Valuations Valuations are rich across sectors and styles, leaving investors with almost no cushion. A slight turn in mood could push prices lower, with few supports below. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 2027 EPS Growth Based on Semiconductor Gross Margin Scenarios With semiconductors now an outsized, high-margin engine for the S&P 500, 2027 earnings growth is highly sensitive to how chip margins evolve. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
5-Year Rolling Return of U.S. 10-Year Bonds Five-year rolling returns on 10-year U.S. Treasuries are now among the worst in a century, both before and after inflation. Much of the damage was done in the 2022 rate-hiking cycle. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Corporate Profits as % of GDP U.S. corporate profits as a share of GDP are at record highs, which on their own don’t signal an imminent recession. The question is not whether margins are high, but how long structural supports can hold them up. Image: J.P. Morgan
EUR/USD vs. Average of 5-Year Real & Nominal Rate Differential U.S–euro area rate differentials remain a key headwind for EUR/USD, with the narrative increasingly about Fed hawkishness and the prospect of wider spreads ahead. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Performance Around Earnings Seasons With the post-earnings lull over, Wall Street is now turning its attention to the next reporting season, a period that has often been friendly to U.S. stocks. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation