U.S. Equity Valuation Metrics (Z-Score Since 1900) U.S. equities look expensive by almost any historical measure, with most valuation metrics more than two standard deviations above their long-term averages. But if momentum holds, the rally may have further to run. Image: The Daily Shot
S&P 500 Returns Around Midterm Elections U.S. stocks often stall before midterm elections, with volatility picking up, but returns tend to strengthen after the vote as policy uncertainty fades. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Earnings Revisions vs. U.S. PMIs This year, U.S. ISM PMIs have picked up sharply, finally catching the earlier surge in earnings-revisions momentum. The cyclical upturn is now underway. Image: Topdown Charts
U.S. Economic Growth vs. S&P 500 EPS Growth S&P 500 earnings growth has surged far beyond what U.S. GDP growth would historically justify, sparking debate over whether this is a temporary overshoot or the start of a new earnings regime. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
10-Year Rolling Annualized Equity vs. Bond Performance (Ex Post Equity Risk Premia) Over the past decade, U.S. stocks have crushed bonds by a margin not seen since the 1920s and 1950s. But with yields rising, that equity advantage looks more fragile. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Small Cap Stocks – S&P 600 / S&P 500 Pressure is mounting on U.S. small caps. The S&P 600 has broken below its 50-day moving average, ending a run of outperformance that began in late 2025 after nearly five years of lagging the S&P 500. Image: BCA Research
U.S. Core PCE Inflation Forecast Goldman Sachs sees U.S. core PCE cooling to 2.2% year-over-year by Q4 2027, and that makes a string of additional rate hikes beyond today’s pricing hard to justify. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation Percentile – Shiller P/E and U.S. 10-Year Yield The Shiller P/E says US equities are expensive. The 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield, by comparison, is back around its historical average. Is it time to favor bonds over equities? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Discretionary Investors Equity Positioning and ISM Manufacturing Discretionary investors remain underweight equities even as the ISM Manufacturing PMI stays solidly in expansion, leaving room to add risk. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Capex to Operating Cash Flow for U.S. and China Hyperscalers U.S. hyperscalers are on track to spend more than their operating cash flow in 2026, 2027 and 2028. The market’s question has shifted from “Can they fund it?” to “Will AI ever pay them back?” Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Systematic Strategies Equity Positioning vs. S&P 500 Realized Volatility Systematic strategies remain heavily overweight, with positioning in the 88th percentile. That alone is no immediate sell signal. Positioning can stay stretched as long as the bull market still has momentum. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation