ISM Manufacturing Index vs. S&P 500 Index U.S. factory activity extended its run in April, with the ISM Manufacturing Index rising to 52.7, marking a fourth straight month of expansion. The print points to steady momentum building across the industrial sector. The chart shows the correlation between the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index and the S&P…
Returns for Major Global Financial Assets April was a standout month for the S&P 500, which surged 10.5%, even as U.S. Treasuries came under pressure amid rising inflation concerns and fading hopes for Fed rate cuts. Image: Deutsche Bank
Global Monetary Policy Stimulus and Global Manufacturing PMI The dominant macro theme for 2026 remains a global growth rebound, powered by two years of aggressive monetary easing that have set the stage for renewed economic momentum worldwide. Image: Topdown Charts
Investors Intelligence Bull-Bear Spread and S&P 500 Bulls are slipping out the side door. Over the past decade, every sustained S&P 500 gain came when the II bull‑bear spread topped 20%. That kind of conviction is missing now. Image: Hi Mount Research
Valuations – 12-Month Forward P/E Ranges (MSCI Regions) Despite the pullback, U.S. and global equity valuations remain elevated, with earnings momentum carrying the load. As long as companies keep delivering, those rich multiples may continue to hold up. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Quarterly YoY EPS Growth Relative to Consensus Expectations Consensus expects S&P 500 earnings to rise 12% year on year in 1Q 2026, led by strong tech‑sector profits. Once again, it’s the tech names doing the heavy lifting. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index The U.S. dollar’s sharp March rally fits the familiar script: investors rush back to the greenback when global risk sentiment turns sour, seeking its safety and deep liquidity. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Quarterly Returns Based on the Four-Year Presidential Cycle Midterm election years have a rough reputation. Q2 is usually the weakest quarter in the presidential cycle for U.S. stocks. With Q1 set to close deeply in the red, could this time be the exception? Image: Carson Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E Multiple Since October, the S&P 500’s P/E has slipped from 23 to 19, showing investors have turned more cautious even as earnings hold steady. The mood has cooled, and risk is being repriced across the market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Nasdaq 100 to S&P 500 Valuation Spread The last time the Nasdaq 100 traded this cheap versus the S&P 500, it staged its biggest outperformance in a year. Honestly, that’s tough to ignore. Image: Bloomberg
Brent Crude Oil Futures Markets are betting the Middle East conflict won’t drag on, a view reflected in oil futures prices. The curve remains in backwardation, indicating tight near‑term supply but confidence that any disruption will prove short‑lived. Image: Alpine Macro