Category: Blog

U.S. Composite PMI U.S. business activity surged in September to its fastest pace since July 2021. But, the expansion also intensified inflation risks. Image: Bloomberg

S&P 500 Performance When Up YTD Between 10-20% at the End of September When the S&P 500 is up 10% to 20% YTD by late September, Q4 tends to be bullish, with an 86% success rate and a median 5.5% gain, a good reason for bulls to smile. Image: Carson Investment Research

Valuation – S&P 500 Cyclically-Adjusted P/E Ratio (CAPE) vs. Consensus Forward 12-Month S&P 500 P/E Prices have lagged the earnings boom, pulling near-term valuations below their trend-earnings multiples. The US market, for now, shows no clear signs of a bubble. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Presidential Cycle Year three of the presidential cycle is Wall Street’s historically strongest period. With that phase just around the corner, the S&P 500 looks positioned for a solid 2027, enough to keep bulls confident. Image: Carson Investment Research

Different Market Sentiment Indicators Current market sentiment indicators are stuck in neutral, with bullish conviction matching bearish caution. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

U.S. Core CPI Forecast Goldman Sachs expects hotter U.S. core CPI than markets in September and October, but cooler readings in November and December, meaning markets underprice near-term inflation risk while overpricing its persistence later. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Indexed Returns of AI-Related Portfolios vs. Equal-Weight S&P 500 The AI rally has mostly been an infrastructure trade, lifting chipmakers, data-center builders and cloud platforms while software and productivity names sit on the sidelines. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Global Share Buyback vs. Tech Sector Share in U.S. Buybacks Tech’s share of U.S. buybacks has climbed over the past decade, but the trend may begin to reverse, as AI spending diverts cash away from shareholders and into capex. Image: J.P. Morgan Flows and Liquidity

S&P 500 – Aggregate Net Profit Margin, 1999-2026, Against Its Long-Run Average S&P 500 margins have moved up and stayed up, sitting around 60% above the long-term average. The question isn’t if that’s lofty, but how long today’s structural tailwinds can keep margins from sliding back toward the mean. Image: Real Investment Advice

Consensus Hyperscaler Capex Estimates Capex estimates continue to surprise to the upside. Hyperscaler spending is now set to exceed $1.1 trillion in 2027, pointing to a trajectory that looks more like a new era than a standard investment cycle. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

Average 1-Month S&P 500 Return vs. Change in 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yields Fast-rising U.S. Treasury yields tend to crush the most expensive growth stocks. A sudden 50 basis point jump in the 10-year over a month is a near-term risk. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research