S&P 500 Performance on Day of First Hike The last four first-hike days have been positive, with several big single-day gains, as the widely anticipated move clears the Fed doubts on timing. So, is this time different? Image: Carson Investment Research
Fed Funds Rate – Target Probabilities at the Fed’s FOMC Meeting Traders are betting on a Fed rate hike today, with markets pricing in a 92.5% chance of a 25 bps move. But when oil drives inflation, rate hikes barely move the dial. Image: CME Group
S&P 500 Performance on the Day of the FOMC Meeting U.S. stocks have struggled on FOMC days this year. Can this week break the pattern? Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Bond Positioning Bond positioning has sunk to the 5th percentile. If history rhymes, yields are near a short-term peak. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Valuation – S&P 500 Fwd 12-Month P/E Multiple vs. EPS Yield Gap vs. Real 10-Year U.S. Treasury So far in 2026, U.S. equities have digested higher rates mostly through multiple compression, leaving the valuation gap to bonds largely intact. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Change in Foreign Holdings of U.S. Equities Foreign investors now hold roughly $10 in U.S. equities for every $1 they have bought. The buying that built the position was modest. The position itself is not. If sentiment turns, that imbalance could matter. Image: Deutsche Bank Research
S&P 500 Performance on the Week of FOMC Meetings U.S. stocks have whipsawed through recent FOMC meetings, but the average week still closes in the green. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Return Around Start of Fed Hiking Cycles History says the S&P 500 tends to stumble in the weeks after the Fed starts hiking, before recovering as the broader trend resumes. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 PEG Ratio Fwd P/E? Rich. PEG? Cheap, because long-term earnings-growth estimates are the highest since 1995. That low PEG is just blockbuster growth expectation. A recession or an AI-spending slowdown could quickly turn that narrative. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Forward P/E Ratio and Forward EPS Sustainable bull markets are driven by corporate earnings and fundamentals, not just hope. Vibes can lift prices for a while, but profits are what keep the rally going. Image: BCA Research
VIX and S&P 500 Seasonality The VIX and the S&P 500 usually move in opposite directions. As the VIX begins its seasonal rise from late July into autumn, the S&P 500’s path tends to get choppier before the typical year-end rally. Image: Topdown Charts