U.S. Treasury Bill Yield by Maturity A default by the U.S. government could have significant negative effects on the economy, including financial market disruptions and a loss of faith in the United States by international investors. Image: BofA Global Research
How Many Times Each President Increased the Debt Ceiling? The U.S. debt ceiling has been raised 89 times since 1959. Is this time any different? Image: Carson Investment Research
Japanese Yen vs. Swiss Franc The Japanese yen looks cheap against the Swiss franc. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
Seasonality – S&P 500 % Change As cash and T-bills currently offer an attractive yield, should investors “sell in May and go away” this year? Image: TS Lombard
Average Mention of Weak Demand per S&P 500 Company Mentions of weak demand during earnings calls are rising to a record level, which is not good news. Image: BofA Global Research
S&P 500 Total Return vs. USD Liquidity Proxy The U.S. liquidity outlook will be a headwind for U.S. stocks in the coming quarters. Image: Steno Research
Total Assets of Failed Institutions as % of GDP What will be the impact of bank failures on the U.S. economy? Image: Deutsche Bank
Yield Curve – U.S. 10-Year – 3-Month Treasury Spread So far, the inversion of the U.S. 10Y-3M yield curve continues to deepen. Image: The Daily Shot
Probability of U.S. Recession Beginning Within 12 Months The probability of a U.S. recession beginning within 12 months remains high. Image: J.P. Morgan
S&P 500 E-Mini – Non-Commercial Net Positioning There is a massive short position building up against the S&P 500. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 and Last Hike in Federal Reserve Bank Rate Hiking Cycles The last Fed rate hike is not necessarily bearish for U.S. stocks over the next 12 months. Image: Carson Investment Research