Gold – Beta of USD/xxx to Equity Market Volatility Related to Government Spending Gold has been a very good hedge against debt ceiling worries in the past. Image: Deutsche Bank
Headline Inflation and Future S&P 500 Index Returns When inflation is high, future returns on U.S. equities tend to be lower than average. Image: True Insights
House Pricing Index Rising borrowing costs and interest rates are impacting global housing markets and driving down prices in many developed markets. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
Equity Market Volatility Related to Uncertainty over Government Spending Equity market volatility may spike when the debt ceiling is under discussion. Image: Deutsche Bank
Recessions and Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index Expectations Less Present Situation Historically, low consumer confidence expectations have not been a positive sign for the U.S. economy. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
One-Year U.S. Treasury Credit Default Swap Spread The one-year U.S. Treasury credit default swap spread is currently twice what it was during the 2011 and 2013 debates over the debt ceiling, indicating that there is greater concern in the market about the risk of default. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Seasonality – Average Rolling Monthly S&P 500 Return Sell in May this year? Since 1950, the average annualized return of the S&P 500 from May through October has been 5%. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Months of Yield Curve Inversion Before Recession BofA remains bearish as a recession in the United States is becoming increasingly likely. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Continuing Jobless Claims The U.S. labor market is cooling, as continuing claims are up 22.5% YoY. Image: The Daily Shot
Blended Money Supply U.S. money supply is shrinking rapidly. Historically, U.S. nominal GDP growth has closely tracked money supply growth. Image: Deutsche Bank
Weight of Largest Stock in S&P 500 The concentration of the largest stocks in the S&P 500 is currently at its highest level in many years. Image: J.P. Morgan Equity Macro Research