Category: Blog

FMS Financial Market Stability Risks Index vs. S&P 500 Financial market stability risks continue to weigh on the S&P 500. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

U.S. 10-Year – 2-Year Yield Curve Historically, the re-steepening of the U.S. 10Y-2Y yield curve from the trough has preceded recessions. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

Fed Cuts Rates in Response to Recessions or Crisis Historically, a recession or a financial crisis tends to occur when the federal funds rate is above the 10-year yield. Image: Real Investment Advice

FMS Investors – Net % Expecting Steeper Yield Curve Yield curve steepening expectations have increased. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey

Valuation – S&P 500 Index Price-to-Sales Ratio U.S. equities remain expensive by historical standards, despite the correction. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

First Major Fed Rate Cut – U.S. CPI vs. Unemployment Rate Can the Fed cut interest rates in response to the bank crisis? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

Financials and Banking Exposure by Index The Russell 2000 has more exposure to financial stocks (18.5%) than the S&P 500 (10.5%). Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Buybacks Will share buybacks continue to suffer? Image: Goldman Sachs

Bank Cash As a Share of Total Assets U.S. banks have plenty of cash on hand and most banks are in very good shape. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond

Returns – Average Year for the S&P 500 Over the past 20 years, the S&P 500 has bottomed around the middle of March. Image: Carson Investment Research

3-Day Change in U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield The U.S. 2-year Treasury yield experienced its biggest three-day drop since October 1987. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy