Margin Debt Balances – YoY % Change Margin debt on the NYSE has surged past $1.1 trillion, up nearly 40% YoY, marking one of the fastest spikes on record. Such rapid increases in borrowing, outpacing overall market gains, have often preceded market peaks. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Returns After Fed Cuts Within 2% of an All-Time High Bears are losing ground as history leans bullish. Since 1980, when the Fed has eased policy while the S&P 500 traded within 2% of an all‑time high, the index has risen every time in the next 12 months, averaging a 14.2% gain Image:…
Valuation – 12-Month Forward P/E Ranges (MSCI Regions) The U.S. rally is still powered by tech and AI, but stretched valuations and bubbling concerns leave markets on edge, exposed to sharp reversals if confidence wavers. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Risk Appetite Indicator Level and Momentum Factors After its sharpest two-week rise since May, the GS Risk Appetite Indicator shows investors leaning into risk and betting on steady returns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – S&P 500 NTM P/E At a forward P/E of 17 versus 23 for the benchmark, the equal-weight index shows what’s really happening: most stocks have stalled while a few giants do the lifting. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 vs. 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield The S&P 500 has diverged from bonds in December, largely ignoring the bond market selloff despite 10-year Treasury yields rising notably this month. Stocks seem more focused on solid earnings and the upbeat tone in tech than on rising rates. Image: Bloomberg
Forward P/E Ratio and Subsequent 5-Year Annualized Returns With U.S. stocks trading at stretched multiples, the era of easy money in equities seems to be fading, making patience the smarter play for the next five years. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Spot Gold Gold refuses to give ground, with traders already eyeing next year’s Fed moves. A rush of central-bank buying and hot ETF demand have driven a 60% rally this year. Deutsche Bank pegs 2026 prices at $4,450. Image: Bloomberg
U.S. Real GDP Growth Goldman Sachs expects the U.S. economy to keep its edge, projecting GDP growth of 2.5% in 2026, ahead of consensus, with steady inflation and a solid labor market supporting the expansion. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Positions in S&P 500 Equity Futures by Asset Managers Rising bets in U.S. equity futures point to a risk‑on shift among asset managers, fueled by optimism over resilient growth, easier policy, and solid earnings into 2026. Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S. Household Equity Ownership vs. S&P 500 Index U.S. households have never been this heavily invested in stocks. The higher the concentration, the greater the risk that a market pullback hits both confidence and consumption, reversing wealth effects. Image: Real Investment Advice