U.S. Unemployment Rate Before, During and at the End of Recessions The U.S. unemployment rate is a lagging indicator. It is not a reliable predictor of U.S. recessions. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Average Median and Positive Hit Rate of Monthly Returns Based on Credit/Fed Cycles Fed easing and credit tightening regime does not bode well for U.S. equities. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
U.S. Core Inflation vs. Unemployment at First Cut in Each Fed Easing Cycle The U.S. unemployment rate and core inflation do not suggest that the Fed will cut interest rates anytime soon. Image: Deutsche Bank
Fed Funds and Recessions Fed tightening over the past year is on an unprecedented scale. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
S&P 500 Annual % Change vs. Liquidity Measure Shrinking excess liquidity remains a headwind for U.S. stocks. Image: Real Investment Advice
Beta Exposure of Large Cap U.S. Active Managers vs. S&P 500 Among active managers, there is a significant drop in beta exposure to GFC levels. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
U.S. 10Y-3M Yield Curve The U.S. 10Y-3M yield curve suggests that the U.S. economy may be headed for a downturn in the near future. Image: Morgan Stanley Research
FDIC Insured Deposit Taking Bank Failures There have been hundreds of bank failures in the United States over the past two decades, which can have significant consequences for individuals and organizations. Image: Deutsche Bank
Flows into Global Money Market Funds There were significant flows into global money market funds in the first 9 weeks, as rate rises. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Revenues Minus S&P 500 Costs Increased costs have outpaced S&P 500 revenue growth, which is not good news. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
GDP and Unemployment During U.S. Recessions The severity of a U.S. recession can be measured by the duration and magnitude of the increase in unemployment rate and the decline in real GDP. Image: Alpine Macro