S&P 500 Ex. Financials – Net Leverage and Interest Coverage Since the Global Financial Crisis, there has been a sharp increase in the median S&P 500 stock’s leverage ratio, a trend that could have substantial effects on market risk and volatility. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Valuation – 12-Month Forward STOXX Europe 600 PE European stocks look less expensive than at the beginning of this year. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Outstanding Short Interest Elevated short interest in both ETFs and single stocks generally signals increased bearish sentiment or heightened hedging activity in the market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Recession – Economic Output Composite Index vs. LEI With the Economic Output Composite Index in expansionary territory, the likelihood of a recession in the U.S. appears low for now. Image: Real Investment Advice
Valuation – S&P 500 Based on Rule of 20 According to the historically reliable “Rule of 20,” the market is fairly valued when the P/E ratio plus the inflation rate equals 20. By this measure, the S&P 500’s fair value is about 4,600 today. Image: Bloomberg
% of Large-Cap Mutual Funds Outperforming their Benchmarks Active large-cap funds are having a good year in 2025, with half of them beating their benchmarks so far—much higher than the average of 37%. Still, history shows that it’s uncommon for this outperformance to last. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index The dollar spot index’s breach of its multi-year trendline and its struggle to hold above key psychological levels underscore a period of vulnerability for the U.S. currency, driven by both technical and fundamental headwinds. Image: Bloomberg
Hedge Fund Gross and Net Leverage Hedge fund gross leverage remains extremely elevated, while net leverage fell sharply during recent market turmoil but has since rebounded significantly, though it is not yet back to highs. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. High Yield Credit Spreads and Recessions U.S. high-yield credit spreads in May 2025 show little evidence of recession fears, remaining well below the levels seen during previous downturns. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500 Index and Moving Average Crossover Signal Using moving average crossovers-particularly on a weekly basis-can be a valuable tool for investors looking to manage risk in their equity portfolios. Image: Real Investment Advice
Valuation – Magnificent Seven Forward P/E The Magnificent 7 stocks still trade at a premium over the rest of the S&P 500, but that premium has narrowed sharply in 2025 due to underperformance, slower earnings growth, and investors shifting interest to other sectors. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research