S&P 500 Market Cap / S&P 500 Equal Weight Index The current performance gap—where the market-cap-weighted index outperforms the equal-weight index—does not necessarily signal an imminent bear market, but it does warrant some caution for investors. Image: Real Investment Advice
Gold ETF Holdings and COMEX Open Interest The confluence of rising gold ETF holdings, speculative flows, central bank buying, and macroeconomic factors has created strong bullish momentum for gold, which is likely to persist through the remainder of 2025 and into 2026. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Fed Funds Rate By the end of 2026, Goldman Sachs anticipates four 25-basis-point cuts and expects the Fed to loosen monetary policy more than markets foresee, driven by worries about weaker employment growth and inflation dynamics. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Bloomberg’s Global 60/40 Equity/Fixed Income Portfolio Reaching a new all-time high, the global 60/40 portfolio has demonstrated renewed strength and remains a cornerstone strategy for long-term investors who prioritize diversification, balance, and moderate risk tolerance. Image: Deutsche Bank
U.S. New Private Housing Units Authorized by Building Permits and Recessions In August, U.S. building permits declined to 1.312 million, below expectations. Historically, building permits tend to peak and then decline prior to economic recessions. Image: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
U.S. 2-Year Treasury Yield vs. Fed Funds The current 2-year U.S. Treasury yield, which is below the fed funds rate, signals that monetary policy is restrictive. It also implies the Fed is about 80 basis points behind the curve in cutting rates. Image: Real Investment Advice
Annual S&P 500 Net Buyback Payout Ratio Over the past decade, the buyback payout ratio in the S&P 500 has remained high and relatively steady, with buybacks serving as a primary way of delivering value to shareholders. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Breadth Thrusts and S&P 500 The ongoing Breadth Thrust Regime offers a powerful bullish signal, indicating favorable conditions for U.S. equities until at least May 2026, particularly with the S&P 500 reaching new highs. Image: Hi Mount Research
S&P 500 and Fed Funds Target Rate When the Fed cuts rates outside of a recession, U.S. stocks typically perform well, benefiting from easier borrowing conditions, stronger earnings prospects, and shifts in investor risk preferences. Image: Bloomberg
Gold Net Long Managed Money on COMEX Rising speculative positioning in gold signals increased bullishness but also raises the risk of a short-term pullback, as prices often correct after speculative positions become excessively extended. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Russell 2000 Net Futures Contracts Asset managers and leveraged funds hold large net short positions in Russell 2000 futures despite recent small-cap gains, creating conditions for potential short covering that could trigger further upward momentum in small-cap futures. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation