S&P 500 vs. Liquidity Index A slowdown in liquidity growth—particularly if combined with soft economic data—poses a short-term risk to the U.S. equity market, increasing volatility and the likelihood of price declines. Image: TS Lombard
Magnificent Seven Earnings Growth Expectations and Delivered The Mag 7 companies are currently the dominant force behind S&P 500 earnings growth, with an expected 14% year-over-year growth in Q2 2025, far exceeding the remainder of the S&P 500 index. Image: J.P. Morgan
Fed Fund Rate Forecasts Nomura anticipates a measured easing cycle from the Fed beginning in December 2025 with a total of three 25 bps cuts through early 2026, driving the terminal policy rate down to 3.50-3.75%. Image: Nomura
Average Relative Performance of S&P 500 Additions Stocks added to the S&P 500 index typically experience their strongest outperformance before the official announcement, as market participants anticipate and position for the change. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Tech Stocks Since April lows, tech stocks rebounded strongly on AI growth and solid earnings, but high valuations and margin pressures from ongoing AI infrastructure investments could lead to volatility in coming quarters. Image: Yahoo Finance
M2 Money Supply Growth U.S. money supply growth has robustly returned to near its long-term trend. In contrast, the euro area has experienced a slight slowdown in money supply growth recently, although growth rates remain positive. Image: Deutsche Bank
Risk Appetite Indicator Level and Momentum Factors The GS Risk Appetite Indicator’s current risk-on signal points to a constructive market environment, where investors are willing to take on risk in anticipation of sustained positive returns and economic stability. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Global Stocks – MSCI ACWI Index Global equities currently show complacency, with prices surging despite a worsening earnings outlook—fueled more by speculative momentum and FOMO than by broad fundamental strength. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 Profit Margin – Operating Earnings/Sales Structural changes in the market—such as the rise of high-margin sectors like technology, economies of scale, and favorable financial conditions for large-cap firms—have driven elevated profit margins in the S&P 500. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
S&P 500 Quarterly EPS Level Expectations U.S. equities face challenges as high valuations heighten the need for strong earnings and guidance. Disappointing results may pressure stock prices, risking recent gains unless corporate earnings justify these elevated valuations. Image: J.P. Morgan
Materials Group Positioning Positioning in materials stocks is low at the 21st percentile, reflecting restrained confidence or caution in the sector. Image: Deutsche Bank