S&P 500 Trailing P/E + CPI YoY and Prior Market Bottoms
S&P 500 Trailing P/E + CPI YoY and Prior Market Bottoms Historically, U.S. stocks bottomed when the S&P 500 trailing P/E + CPI was below 20. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Category: Blog
Liquidity – Market Depth of S&P 500 E-mini Futures
Liquidity – Market Depth of S&P 500 E-mini Futures U.S. equity market depth has been steadly improving. Image: J.P. Morgan
Contribution to U.S. Real GDP by Sector
Contribution to U.S. Real GDP by Sector U.S. GDP grew 2.7% in Q4 2022. The housing slump was a net drag on GDP, and it’s not over yet. Image: The Daily Shot
Germany 2-Year Government Bond Yield
Germany 2-Year Government Bond Yield The German 2-year government bond yield, considered to be the most sensitive to European Central Bank (ECB) policy rate expectations, hit a 14-year high. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Recession – Number of States with Increasing Activity
U.S. Recession – Number of States with Increasing Activity The odds of a U.S. recession in 2023 appear high. Image: Deutsche Bank
Relative Performance of Prior Bull Market Leader vs. The Next Bull Market Leader
Relative Performance of Prior Bull Market Leader vs. The Next Bull Market Leader Should investors continue to overweight the energy sector over the tech sector? Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy
Average S&P 500 Performance in Fed Tightening Cycles
Average S&P 500 Performance in Fed Tightening Cycles S&P 500 weakness tends to materialise 9-10 months after the first Fed rate hike and tends to last a year. Image: Deutsche Bank
Peak to Trough S&P 500 Price Decline Around Recessions
Peak to Trough S&P 500 Price Decline Around Recessions Could the S&P 500 fall more than 30% from peak to trough in a hard landing scenario? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Average Monthly S&P 500 Return During Different ISM Cycle Phases Conditional on Bond Yield Changes
Average Monthly S&P 500 Return During Different ISM Cycle Phases Conditional on Bond Yield Changes Historically, rising bond yields are a headwind for U.S. equity returns. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Near Term Forward Spread Recession Over 12 Months
Near Term Forward Spread Recession Over 12 Months The near-term forward spread indicator (spread between U.S. 3-month rates and the U.S. 3-month rate 18 months forward) is flashing red. Image: J.P. Morgan
U.S. Labor Market – Spread Between Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators and Initial Unemployment Claims
U.S. Labor Market – Spread Between Leading and Coincident Economic Indicators and Initial Unemployment Claims U.S. jobless claims are still near historic lows, but are expected to rise in the near future. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management