Category: Blog

Percentage of Time the U.S. Is in Recession Will the U.S. stock market rise in the 12 months following midterm elections, despite fears of a recession? Image: Deutsche Bank

U.S. Real GDP Growth Recession risks are rising in the United States. Oxford Economics expects U.S. GDP to turn negative in H1 2023. Image: Oxford Economics

Consensus Net Income – S&P 500 vs. S&P 500 ex Energy Have U.S. equities fully priced in the risk of recession? Image: Morgan Stanley Research

U.S. Stock Market – Nifty Fifty Price Returns Will the U.S. stock market be “dead” money over the next 10 years? Image: BofA Research Investment Committee

The Presidential Cycle and Average Total Return of the S&P 500 Should investors expect the S&P 500 to rise after midterm elections, despite macro headwinds? Image: Deutsche Bank

Cumulative Change in 10-Year UST Yield Since First Hike Is the peak in U.S. bond yields not far away? Image: J.P. Morgan

Timing the Peak in the U.S. Dollar A hard landing could be bullish for the U.S. dollar. Image: BCA Research

Labor Market – U.S. Unemployment Rate vs. Jobs “Hard to Get” Minus “Plentiful” How high will the U.S. unemployment rate rise? Image: Alpine Macro

Median S&P 500 Index Move Around Last Fed Hike Historically, the S&P 500 Index’s median return exceeds 5% about 22 weeks after the final Fed hike. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

S&P 500 Growth/Value Ratio Will value stocks continue to outperform growth stocks? Image: The Daily Shot

U.S. 10-Year Real Rates vs. Relative Performance of Nasdaq 100 vs. S&P 500 Will the Nasdaq continue to underperform the S&P 500 as U.S. real rates rise? Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy