Top 10 Mega Caps and Bottom 440 Stocks In the S&P 500, the top 10 stocks carry so much weight that they impact the index nearly as much as the bottom 440 together, showing how top-heavy it is. Image: Real Investment Advice
Average U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield Performance in Fed Rate Cut Cycles Fed rate cuts usually push down short-term interest rates, but long-term U.S. Treasury yields do not always move in parallel. Market expectations around inflation, future Fed decisions, and debt supply dynamics can drive them higher instead. Image: Deutsche Bank
Seven Largest Companies as Share of S&P 500 Total Market Capitalization The seven largest stocks in the S&P 500 make up 34% of the index’s total market capitalization. Although such a high concentration doesn’t guarantee market declines, it has the potential to increase volatility. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Temporary Help Services Jobs vs. Real GDP and U.S. Recessions Temporary Help Services Jobs stand at -2.91% YoY in August. The relationship between Temporary Help Services jobs and the macroeconomy is complex. Declines in Temporary Help Services Jobs are often considered a leading indicator of a potential recession (red line at -3.5%), but they do…
S&P 500 Buyback Yield While S&P 500 share buybacks remain significant, their impact on reducing share counts and boosting returns to shareholders is diminishing compared to past years. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Market-Implied U.S. Recession Probability The market-implied probability of a U.S. recession within one year is modestly elevated but not extremely high. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 – U.S. Broad Market Net Forward Profit Margin Elevated profit margins in the U.S. broad market, which continue to show forward-looking expansion, point to underlying economic resilience and do not align with the start of a severe, systemic labor market downturn. Image: TS Lombard
Top 10 Mega Cap Stocks as % of S&P 500 The growing dominance of the top 10 companies in the S&P 500 has raised concerns about whether the index still provides sufficient diversification, given the concentration risks and sector imbalances. Image: Real Investment Advice
Median S&P 500 Performance After Fed Cuts Rates The S&P 500 has typically risen by a median of roughly 50% in the two years after the Fed begins cutting rates. However, when cuts take place during recessions, returns are usually much weaker. Image: Deutsche Bank
Amount of Fed Rate Cuts Priced by End of Year The outlook could shift quickly in response to upcoming inflation data and changing economic conditions, but for now traders are pricing in 67 basis points of easing by the end of 2025. Image: Bloomberg
Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E Multiple The five largest S&P 500 stocks are trading well above their historical valuation norms—reflecting strong investor confidence in their earnings power and growth prospects—yet their valuations remain below previous peak levels. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research