U.S. Effective Tariff Rate A 19% rise in the effective U.S. tariff rate would significantly slow economic growth and sharply increase recession risk, with broad spillover effects on inflation, employment, and overall business confidence. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. Equities – 12-Month Forward P/E Ratio and Share Prices Market optimism is fueled by hopes of resolving trade and geopolitical risks, but high S&P 500 valuations increase vulnerability. Without resolution or robust earnings growth, the risk of a market pullback rises. Image: Deutsche Bank
S&P 500, as Reported EPS and Forecast Analysts currently do not anticipate an outright profit downturn for corporate America, but compelling reasons suggest that earnings growth may slow, particularly due to the impact of tariffs. Image: TS Lombard
Share of U.S. Corporate Profits from Foreign Markets Foreign markets account for 13% of US corporate profits, while emerging markets contribute 4%. Yet, trade uncertainties and recent tariffs may threaten these contributions moving forward. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast Goldman Sachs projects that Brent crude oil prices will average $66 per barrel in the second half of 2025, with a subsequent decline to an annual average of $56 per barrel in 2026, as a result of rising global supply from OPEC+. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Monthly Number of U.S. IPOs and S&P 500 The IPO market’s rebound in 2025 is a clear signal of renewed risk appetite and a progressing market cycle, with investors showing strong demand for new equity issues. Image: Topdown Charts
Inflation – U.S. CPI Deviation from Consensus A series of lower-than-expected inflation readings gives the administration greater economic leeway to pursue higher tariffs, driven by the (possibly mistaken) belief that U.S. consumers will be largely insulated from their effects. Image: Deutsche Bank
Volatility – U.S. Options Expiration As $2.8 trillion in options notional value expires, markets may experience greater volatility and price movements due to intensified trading, evolving trader sentiment, and the dynamics of option exercise and settlement. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 – Share of Sales Derived from Outside United States The “Magnificent Seven” tech giants are more exposed to global trade risks than the rest of the S&P 500, as 49% of their revenue comes from foreign sales. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Options: % of S&P 500 Listed Volume Expiring within 24 Hours Trading activity in ultra-short-term S&P 500 options—those expiring within 24 hours—has soared to record highs as investors pursue quick profits, fueling increased market volatility. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Changes in Financial Conditions Looser U.S. financial conditions over the past three months are poised to reinforce two central pillars of economic growth: consumer spending and business investment. This is likely to benefit the U.S. stock market. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research