Probability of U.S. Recession In the Next 1 Year The market is pricing in just an 11% chance of a U.S. recession over the next year, while consensus puts the odds closer to 20%, above the historical average. Is the market too complacent about the risk? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Index Performance – S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Russell 2000, Mag 7 Investors are still rotating out of mega-cap tech. Since late October 2025, the Magnificent Seven have underperformed sharply, while the broader market has proved far more resilient. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Oil Price Fair Value Oil is trading more than 50% above its estimate of medium-term fair value. Outside the 2022 shock peak, the market has rarely looked this stretched, leaving plenty of room for a pullback if conditions normalize. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
S&P 500 Returns Around Midterm Elections Ahead of midterm elections, U.S. equities have often gone sideways, with volatility rising and performance typically improving after the vote as uncertainty fades. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. 10-Year Treasury Yield vs. Crude Oil (USO) Oil and yields have moved together since the Middle East conflict started in February. But that correlation often weakens once tensions cool. Image: Real Investment Advice
History of Asset Bubbles Past 60-Years The AI rally is powering investor enthusiasm, with semiconductor names among the biggest winners. It’s also reviving talk of past hype cycles and whether the run can last. Image: BCA Research
Days per Year the S&P 500 Price and Breadth Moved in Opposite Directions Years like this, when the S&P 500 holds firm while breadth lags, have tended to come with a higher risk of volatility and pullbacks, even if they rarely offer precise timing. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Four-Year Cycle for 2026 After following the usual midterm-year playbook at the start of the year, the S&P 500 went off script in the spring and has since lost momentum, leaving more consolidation into the fall looking more likely. Image: Ned Davis Research
Gold / T-Bills Total Return vs. T-Bill Real Yield Under the new Fed chair, gold faces near‑term headwinds and choppier price action, but the longer‑term picture still looks constructive if inflation remains sticky and real rates stay contained. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Effective Corporate Tax Rate Corporate tax rates have fallen since the 1980s in many markets, with little movement in the past few years. That tailwind has often translated into higher dividends and increased buybacks, reinforcing equity market performance. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Brent Crude Oil Monthly Average Closing Price Under a high‑price stress scenario, Brent could climb past 120 dollars a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and still average close to 100 dollars through 2027 if flows through Hormuz remain disrupted. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research