S&P 500 Four-Year Cycle for 2026 After following the usual midterm-year playbook at the start of the year, the S&P 500 went off script in the spring and has since lost momentum, leaving more consolidation into the fall looking more likely. Image: Ned Davis Research
Gold / T-Bills Total Return vs. T-Bill Real Yield Under the new Fed chair, gold faces near‑term headwinds and choppier price action, but the longer‑term picture still looks constructive if inflation remains sticky and real rates stay contained. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Effective Corporate Tax Rate Corporate tax rates have fallen since the 1980s in many markets, with little movement in the past few years. That tailwind has often translated into higher dividends and increased buybacks, reinforcing equity market performance. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Brent Crude Oil Monthly Average Closing Price Under a high‑price stress scenario, Brent could climb past 120 dollars a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and still average close to 100 dollars through 2027 if flows through Hormuz remain disrupted. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
U.S. 30-Year Treasury Yield Are U.S. long-bond yields on the verge of breaking above their post-2007 ceiling? The level around 5% could give way if inflation stays sticky, demand for long-duration remains weak, or the Fed keeps policy tight. Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
U.S. High Yield Index OAS The credit cycle usually rolls over before equities do. For now, credit is not buying the equity stress story. U.S. high-yield OAS sits near 270 bps, still a long way from the 800 bps that typically signals recession risk. Image: Real Investment Advice
Valuation – U.S. Hyperscalers 12-Month Forward P/E U.S. hyperscalers are trading at decade-low valuations, tempting bargain hunters. But doubts about AI spending and when those returns will arrive are keeping buyers on the sidelines. Image: BCA Research
Contribution to S&P 500 EPS Growth S&P 500 earnings are riding a strong tailwind from booming energy profits and tight AI chip supply, with semiconductor stocks responsible for nearly half of Q2 2026 growth. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Inflation – WTI Crude Oil Inflation eased in June largely because oil and gasoline prices fell, but the recent rebound in oil prices means inflation pressures could re‑intensify over the coming months. Image: MarketDesk Research
Financials Group Positioning Financials have improved in positioning, but they still sit in the 23rd percentile, leaving room for more risk-taking. Fundamentals are steady, so the caution may still be a bit overdone. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Materials Group Positioning Positioning in materials has collapsed to extreme lows, leaving investors sharply underweight. A small shift in sentiment could fuel a powerful rebound. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation