Valuation – S&P 500 Forward P/E Goldman Sachs’ upward revision of the S&P 500’s forward P/E multiple to 20.4 over the next year reflects increased optimism about earnings growth and the macroeconomic backdrop. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Index and Blended Forward EPS The recent easing of tariffs has helped reverse the persistent negative earnings trend in U.S. equities, leading to a strong market rebound and improved short-term sentiment. Image: Bloomberg
Historical U.S. Tariff Rate and Implied Rate Based on Latest Announcements With the U.S. and China’s temporary tariff pause, the average effective tariff rate is about 17%. An increase of 1 percentage point in the average effective tariff rate is estimated to reduce growth by around 0.1 percentage point. Image: Deutsche Bank
Equity Fund Flows U.S. vs. Rest of the World Over the past four weeks, U.S. equity funds have experienced substantial outflows, while equity funds in other regions have recorded inflows, indicating a shift in global investor sentiment. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
Consensus EPS Growth Estimate Following the initial Magnificent Seven earnings report on April 22, analysts revised full-year earnings estimates upward by 1.8% for the Magnificent Seven, but downward by 0.8% for the other 493 companies in the S&P 500. Image: J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Deviation of Earnings Above/Below Long Term Growth Trend The widening gap between current earnings forecasts and historical growth trends is fueling investor concerns about the sustainability of these optimistic projections. Image: Real Investment Advice
S&P 500 Performance After >55% of Components Make a 20-Day High There’s good news for bulls: since 1970, the S&P 500 has gained an average of 16.3% in the 12 months after more than 55% of its components hit a 20-day high, with positive returns occurring 96.7% of the time. Image: Carson Investment Research
Average S&P 500 Performance Around Drawdowns Close to or Larger than 20% Since 1950 U.S. equities have experienced one of the sharpest drawdowns in the past 75 years. Historically, such sharp declines are often followed by strong recoveries. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
S&P 500 Price Target Goldman Sachs has raised its S&P 500 target to 5,900 over the next three months, citing lower tariff rates and reduced recession risks following a significant easing in U.S.-China trade tensions. Image: Bloomberg
S&P 500 10% Drop in 2 Days While a 10% drop in the S&P 500 in just two days is both rare and alarming, historical trends reveal that sharp sell-offs are frequently followed by robust recoveries-providing investors with a reason to stay optimistic. Image: Carson Investment Research
Quarterly U.S. and Non-U.S. Share Announced Buybacks Strong share buyback announcements from U.S. companies signal their confidence in their financial health and their dedication to boosting shareholder value and stabilizing stock prices. Image: J.P. Morgan