Aggregated U.S. Equity Futures Positions vs. ISM Manufacturing The correlation between aggregated U.S. equity futures positions and the U.S. ISM manufacturing is strong. Image: Deutsche Bank Asset Allocation
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI vs. Growth Tax (Leading Indicator) Should investors expect a sharp contraction of the U.S. economy? Image: Alpine Macro
U.S. Bear Markets and Recoveries Should investors expect a further decline in the S&P 500? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Liquidity – Securities Held in Custody at Fed for Foreign Official Accounts Should markets be worried about a new international liquidity crisis? Image: Gavekal, Macrobond
Fed Funds Rate and Forecasts BofA expects the Fed funds terminal rate to reach 3.25-3.50%. Image: BofA Global Research
Forecast – Federal Reserve Balance Sheet Should investors expect a higher terminal Fed balance sheet? Image: BofA Global Research
Median Change in Consensus FY0 EPS Estimates and NTM P/E Around the Start of Recessions Should equity investors expect earnings to fall, as recession fears mount? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Oil Impact on U.S. Headline Inflation U.S. inflation is likely to come down, as oil prices tend to drive inflation. Image: Topdown Charts
Flows – Outflows per Every $100 of Inflow Should investors stay cautious on equities, as capitulation has not been reached for risk assets? Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy
U.S. Inflation Above 5% and Recessions Historically, when inflation exceeds 5% on an annualized basis, a recession occurs in the United States. Is it really different this time? Image: Real Investment Advice
U.S. Monthly GDP BofA forecasts a mild recession in the United States, beginning in the second half of this year and expects 4Q/4Q real GDP to decline 1.4%. Image: BofA Global Research