FMS Investors – What Do You Think Is the Most Likely Reason for the Fed to “Pause” or “Pivot”? Will the Fed pause if U.S. inflation (PCE deflator) drops below 4%? Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
Housing – U.S. Existing Home Sales U.S. existing home sales fell 1.5% in September as rates rise. Image: The Daily Shot
Valuation – S&P 500 FY2 P/E Ratio and 10-Year Real U.S. Treasury Yield U.S. stocks are at risk of slipping further, as U.S. real rates and S&P 500 valuation have dislocated. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Technology Relative to the S&P 500 Will tech stocks continue to underperform the S&P 500 Index? Image: BofA Global Research
U.S. 30-Year Government Bond Yield How high will 30-year U.S. Treasury yields rise? Image: The Daily Shot
FMS Investors – Net % Rate Liquidity Conditions as Positive Tighter liquidity conditions tend to exacerbate market swings. Image: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey
S&P 500 Daily Returns vs. U.S. 2-Year Daily Changes Will the negative correlation between moves in the S&P 500 and moves in rates persist? Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Philly Fed State Coincident Index and U.S. Recessions Recession risks are increasing in the United States. Image: Deutsche Bank
Dispersion in S&P 500 Next 12 Months’ Earnings-Per-Shares Estimates Should U.S. equity investors be worried that earnings estimate uncertainty is on the rise? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
Yield Curve – U.S. 30-Year – 2-Year Government Bond Spread The 30Y-2Y inverted yield curve does not bode well for the U.S. economy. Image: The Daily Shot
S&P 500 Normalized P/E vs. Subsequent Annualized Returns The current S&P 500 valuation suggests that equity investors should expect 6%/year over the next 10 years. Image: BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy