Category: Blog

S&P 500 24-Month Forward Dividend Yield vs. U.S. 10-Year Rates Negative real rates are still supporting U.S. equities. Image: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research

S&P 500 Equity Risk Premium and VIX The equity risk premium is sensitive to changes in the VIX. Image: Morgan Stanley Research

Valuation – S&P 500 Average Trailing P/E Ratio by 10-Year U.S. Treasury Yield Is the S&P 500 P/E ratio too high, based on interest rates? Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

Model-Based U.S. Recession Probability The probability of a U.S. recession within three years is increasing. Image: J.P. Morgan Global Economics

Performance – KBE/SPY Ratio vs. U.S. 10-Year Government Bond Yield With rates rising rapidly, will bank stocks outperform the S&P 500? Image: The Daily Shot

Frontier Markets Relative Performance Should long-term investors have frontier stocks in their portfolios, as FM valuations are decent? Image: Topdown Charts

Valuation – S&P 500 Average Trailing P/E Ratio by Inflation Rate Historically, highest valuations in the S&P 500 are achieved when inflation is below 3%. Image: Morgan Stanley Wealth Management

MSCI U.S. EPS Consensus Growth Estimates U.S. EPS consensus growth estimates remain 8.3% for 2022. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

The Average Trajectory of the S&P 500 Before and After the First Fed Rate Hike over the Previous 10 Fed Tightening Cycles With rates rising rapidly, will the S&P 500 continue to rally? Image: J.P. Morgan

Inflation – German PPI YoY German PPI jumped 25.9% YoY in February, the highest since 1949. Image: BofA Global Investment Strategy

Global Financial Stress Indicator vs. OFR Financial Stress Index How long will the BofA global financial stress indicator remain high? Image: BofA Global Research